本文選題：東北航道　切入點(diǎn)：雙邊貿(mào)易　出處：《大連海事大學(xué)學(xué)報》2017年02期

【摘要】：為分析東北航道開通對雙邊貿(mào)易量的影響,在基本貿(mào)易引力模型的基礎(chǔ)上,增加"人口數(shù)"和"海運(yùn)成本"兩個解釋變量,并通過搜集東北航道沿線不同國家2003—2015年的相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù),建立面板數(shù)據(jù)模型.研究結(jié)果表明:兩國之間的貿(mào)易量與國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值GDP呈正相關(guān),與運(yùn)輸距離呈負(fù)相關(guān),與人口數(shù)呈正相關(guān);東北航道的開通將大大帶動?xùn)|北亞國家與西北歐國家間雙邊貿(mào)易量的增長,中國、日本和韓國與西北歐主要國家的雙邊貿(mào)易量增幅均在10%以上,其中,日本與其他國家的貿(mào)易量增幅最大,其次為韓國和中國,這也充分證明了東北航道蘊(yùn)藏著巨大的商業(yè)價值.
[Abstract]:In order to analyze the influence of the opening of the Northeast Waterway on the bilateral trade volume, on the basis of the basic trade gravity model, the two explanatory variables of "population" and "shipping cost" are added, and the relevant data of different countries along the Northeast Passage from 2003 to 2015 are collected. The panel data model is established. The results show that the volume of trade between the two countries is positively correlated with GDP, negatively correlated with transport distance and positively correlated with population size; The opening of the Northeast Passage will greatly promote the growth of bilateral trade volume between the Northeast Asian countries and the Western Nordic countries. The bilateral trade volume between China, Japan and South Korea and the major Western European countries will all increase by more than 10 percent, of which, Japan's largest increase in trade with other countries, followed by South Korea and China, is a testament to the enormous commercial value of the Northeast Passage.
【作者單位】： 大連海事大學(xué)交通運(yùn)輸管理學(xué)院;大連集裝箱碼頭有限公司;
【基金】：中央高�；究蒲袠I(yè)務(wù)費(fèi)專項資金資助項目(3132016054;3132015074) 教育部人文社會科學(xué)研究青年基金(13YJCZH168)
【分類號】：F551;F742

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