本文選題：Copula理論　切入點(diǎn)：貨運(yùn)量　出處：《華北電力大學(xué)(北京)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：京津冀地區(qū)是我國(guó)政治經(jīng)濟(jì)重要的核心區(qū)域,良好的地緣優(yōu)勢(shì)為京津冀地區(qū)物流產(chǎn)業(yè)快速發(fā)展提供保障。在京津冀區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)中,區(qū)域物流起著越來(lái)越重要的作用。區(qū)域物流是經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)的命脈之一,是聯(lián)系制造業(yè)生產(chǎn)和消費(fèi)的服務(wù)樞紐,是經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展和人民生活水平提高的基礎(chǔ)保障,也是國(guó)家現(xiàn)代化程度的評(píng)定標(biāo)準(zhǔn)之一。因此,對(duì)京津冀區(qū)域物流展開(kāi)研究具有實(shí)際意義。為了對(duì)區(qū)域物流對(duì)區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的價(jià)值有更明確的認(rèn)知,首先應(yīng)先了解該區(qū)域的物流發(fā)展基本情況。由于區(qū)域物流發(fā)展情況界定復(fù)雜并難以衡量,但貨運(yùn)量是可以從整體反映物流水平。因此,本文試圖對(duì)京津冀地區(qū)進(jìn)行貨運(yùn)量相關(guān)性研究,從一種新的角度為京津冀地區(qū)物流的規(guī)劃提出可參考的建議。論文內(nèi)容主要包括以下幾部分:(1)區(qū)域物流及貨運(yùn)量的概述。介紹區(qū)域物流及區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)的基本概念和內(nèi)涵特點(diǎn),進(jìn)一步描述區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)與區(qū)域物流的相關(guān)關(guān)系,界定貨運(yùn)量的基本內(nèi)涵,分析區(qū)域貨運(yùn)量與物流需求量之間的關(guān)系。(2)京津冀地區(qū)貨運(yùn)量的影響因素相關(guān)性分析。通過(guò)查閱相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)與已研究文獻(xiàn),表明目前區(qū)域貨運(yùn)量影響因素分析及評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)選擇方面的現(xiàn)狀:大部分學(xué)者僅僅利用定性分析法,而非科學(xué)地,客觀地以及定量分析貨運(yùn)量的影響因素,從而無(wú)法科學(xué)地構(gòu)建評(píng)價(jià)貨運(yùn)量的指標(biāo)體系。本文結(jié)合京津冀地區(qū)實(shí)貨運(yùn)量及相關(guān)統(tǒng)計(jì)資料,選用Copula理論方法進(jìn)行相關(guān)性分析,Copula理論模型能夠較好描述變量間相關(guān)關(guān)系,構(gòu)建Copula模型,得到模型參數(shù)與相關(guān)系數(shù),來(lái)得到區(qū)域內(nèi)各省、市內(nèi)自身影響因素對(duì)貨運(yùn)量影響程度高低。進(jìn)而,延伸至區(qū)域各省、市間貨運(yùn)量影響因素分析,以及京津冀整體區(qū)域貨運(yùn)量影響因素相關(guān)性分析,從小至大,系統(tǒng)地進(jìn)行研究。(3)京津冀地區(qū)貨運(yùn)量與經(jīng)濟(jì)相關(guān)性分析。區(qū)域物流與當(dāng)?shù)氐貐^(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展有著緊密的關(guān)系,總體整體呈正相關(guān)關(guān)系,物流的需求和供給能力對(duì)當(dāng)?shù)氐谝�、第二和第三產(chǎn)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展起著推動(dòng)或制約的作用。仍然以貨運(yùn)量為研究對(duì)象,結(jié)合京津冀地區(qū)其他經(jīng)濟(jì)或行業(yè)部門,分析該地區(qū)貨運(yùn)量與經(jīng)濟(jì)之間的影響,利用Copula理論得到Clayton Copula模型為適用模型的結(jié)果,應(yīng)更關(guān)注貨運(yùn)量與三大產(chǎn)業(yè)增加值共同下跌的程度影響,為以后研究其它行業(yè)間相關(guān)關(guān)系提供信息參考。
[Abstract]:The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is an important core region of our country's political economy. Good geographical advantages provide a guarantee for the rapid development of the logistics industry in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. In the regional economic activities of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, Regional logistics plays an increasingly important role. Regional logistics is one of the lifeblood of economic activities, a service hub linked to manufacturing production and consumption, and a basic guarantee for economic development and the improvement of people's living standards. Therefore, it is of practical significance to study the regional logistics of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei. In order to have a clearer understanding of the value of regional logistics to the development of regional economy, First of all, we should understand the basic situation of logistics development in the region. Because the development of regional logistics is complex and difficult to measure, but the volume of freight can reflect the level of logistics from the whole. This paper attempts to study the correlation of freight volume in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. From a new angle, the paper puts forward some suggestions for the planning of logistics in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. The paper mainly includes the following parts: 1) the overview of regional logistics and freight volume, and introduces the basic concepts and connotative characteristics of regional logistics and regional economy. Further describe the relationship between regional economy and regional logistics, define the basic connotation of freight volume, Analysis of the relationship between regional freight volume and logistics demand. (2) correlation analysis of influencing factors of freight volume in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. It shows that the current situation of influencing factors analysis and evaluation index selection of regional freight volume: most scholars only use qualitative analysis method, but not scientifically, objectively and quantitatively analyze the influencing factors of freight volume. Therefore, it is impossible to construct a scientific index system for evaluating freight volume. This paper, based on the actual freight volume and related statistical data in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, chooses the Copula theory method to analyze the correlation between variables, and the Copula theoretical model can better describe the correlation relationship between variables. The Copula model is constructed, and the model parameters and correlation coefficients are obtained to get the influence degree of the regional provinces and the city's own influencing factors on the freight volume. Then, the analysis of the influencing factors of the regional provinces and the intercity freight volume is made. As well as the correlation analysis of the influence factors of the overall regional freight volume of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, from small to large, systematically carry on the analysis of the correlation between the freight volume and the economy of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area. The regional logistics has a close relationship with the local economic development. The demand and supply capacity of logistics plays an important role in promoting or restricting the economic development of local first, second and tertiary industries. Combined with other economic or trade sectors in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, the influence of freight volume and economy in this area is analyzed. The results of Clayton Copula model are obtained by using Copula theory. More attention should be paid to the extent of the decline of freight volume and the value added of the three industries, which will provide information reference for the future study of the relationship between other industries.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華北電力大學(xué)(北京)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F224;F512.7;F259.27

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