本文關(guān)鍵詞： 城際高速鐵路 客流成長(zhǎng) 系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué) 旅客感知 仿真　出處：《上海交通大學(xué)》2012年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：隨著環(huán)渤海、長(zhǎng)三角、珠三角等經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)達(dá)和人口稠密地區(qū)城際客運(yùn)系統(tǒng)的發(fā)展,城際高速鐵路建設(shè)已經(jīng)成為城市化走廊地區(qū)解決區(qū)域交通問題的首選。在城際高速鐵路不同的發(fā)展時(shí)期,其客流量變化及增長(zhǎng)也呈現(xiàn)出不同,客流量的大小對(duì)于城際高速鐵路建設(shè)的決策、建設(shè)后功能的充分發(fā)揮及運(yùn)營(yíng)管理的科學(xué)組織等方面影響重大。 本文應(yīng)用系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)的理論與方法,結(jié)合Logistic模型,同時(shí)考慮旅客感知效用,構(gòu)建用于分析城際高速鐵路客流成長(zhǎng)的數(shù)學(xué)模型,從定量與定性相結(jié)合的角度對(duì)城際高速鐵路客流量成長(zhǎng)及其分擔(dān)率進(jìn)行仿真研究,進(jìn)而分析城際高速鐵路客流變化的一般規(guī)律。 本文首先對(duì)城際高速鐵路客流量結(jié)構(gòu)及變化影響因素進(jìn)行了深入分析。接著,根據(jù)高速鐵路客流系統(tǒng)的特點(diǎn),應(yīng)用系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)方法,對(duì)高速鐵路客流的成長(zhǎng)機(jī)理進(jìn)行了研究。并建立了用于分析城際高速鐵路客流成長(zhǎng)的模型。最后,以滬寧地區(qū)城際高速鐵路為背景,應(yīng)用Vensim軟件工具開展仿真模擬,進(jìn)一步驗(yàn)證了模型的科學(xué)合理性。結(jié)果表明,票價(jià)、旅客感知舒適度及投資策略影響客流成長(zhǎng):當(dāng)票價(jià)高出旅客心理票價(jià)特定比例,客流量開始呈現(xiàn)負(fù)增長(zhǎng)趨勢(shì);票價(jià)與旅客感知舒適度的合理相關(guān)度有利于客流成長(zhǎng);實(shí)施差異化投資有利于城際高速鐵路不同時(shí)期的客流成長(zhǎng)以及運(yùn)輸收益的增長(zhǎng)與平衡;2011年～2030年間,滬寧(上�！暇�)通道的高速鐵路市場(chǎng)占有率將逐步得到提高,普通鐵路及長(zhǎng)途客運(yùn)的市場(chǎng)占有率均有所下降。本文的研究成果對(duì)城際高速鐵路未來發(fā)展具有一定的參考價(jià)值。
[Abstract]:With the development of inter-city passenger transport systems in economically developed and densely populated areas such as the Bohai Rim, the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta, Inter-city high-speed railway construction has become the first choice to solve regional traffic problems in urbanized corridor areas. In different periods of development of inter-city high-speed railway, the change and growth of passenger flow are different. The size of passenger flow has a great influence on the decision of the construction of inter-city high-speed railway, the full play of the function after construction and the scientific organization of operation management and so on. Based on the theory and method of system dynamics, combined with Logistic model and considering passenger perception utility, this paper constructs a mathematical model for analyzing passenger flow growth of inter-city high-speed railway. The paper simulates the growth and sharing rate of passenger flow of inter-city high-speed railway from the angle of quantitative and qualitative analysis, and then analyzes the general law of passenger flow change of inter-city high-speed railway. In this paper, the structure of intercity high-speed railway passenger flow and its influence factors are analyzed. Then, according to the characteristics of high-speed railway passenger flow system, the system dynamics method is applied. The growth mechanism of high-speed railway passenger flow is studied, and the model used to analyze the growth of inter-city high-speed railway passenger flow is established. Finally, based on the high-speed railway in Huning area, the simulation is carried out with the Vensim software tool. The results show that ticket price, passenger perceived comfort and investment strategy affect the growth of passenger flow: when the ticket price is higher than the specific proportion of psychological ticket price, the passenger flow begins to show a negative growth trend; The reasonable correlation between ticket price and passenger comfort is beneficial to the growth of passenger flow; the implementation of differential investment is conducive to the growth of passenger flow and the growth and balance of transport income in different periods of inter-city high-speed railway; and the period from 2011 to 2030, The high-speed railway market share of the Huning (Shanghai-Nanjing) corridor will be gradually increased. The market share of ordinary railway and long-distance passenger transportation has declined. The research results of this paper have certain reference value for the future development of inter-city high-speed railway.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：上海交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號(hào)】：U293.13

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本文編號(hào)：1536951