本文關(guān)鍵詞： 項(xiàng)目財(cái)務(wù)評(píng)估 投資估算 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估 敏感性分析　出處：《華南理工大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：2008年國(guó)際金融風(fēng)暴的發(fā)生，給世界經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展造成了極大的損害。為了應(yīng)對(duì)國(guó)際金融風(fēng)暴所帶來的不利影響，中國(guó)政府實(shí)施了積極的擴(kuò)大內(nèi)需政策，穩(wěn)民生、保增長(zhǎng)以及加快傳統(tǒng)產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)型升級(jí)由此成為了中國(guó)國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的首要任務(wù)。政府投資與基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)項(xiàng)目作為擴(kuò)大內(nèi)需與保增長(zhǎng)政策實(shí)施的重點(diǎn)，得到了全社會(huì)的廣泛關(guān)注。在高速公路建設(shè)方面，中央政府強(qiáng)調(diào)要以國(guó)家高速公路網(wǎng)建設(shè)為龍頭，加強(qiáng)省際連接線建設(shè)，到2015年基本建成國(guó)家高速公路網(wǎng)。GL高速公路項(xiàng)目是國(guó)家與廣東省高速公路網(wǎng)規(guī)劃的重要組成部分，它的建設(shè)對(duì)于國(guó)家與廣東省高速公路網(wǎng)絡(luò)的健全與完善，區(qū)域公路網(wǎng)布局的優(yōu)化以及行車條件的改善，都具有重要意義。本文按照工程經(jīng)濟(jì)分析的理論方法，針對(duì)GL高速公路項(xiàng)目進(jìn)行財(cái)務(wù)評(píng)估和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析，不僅可為項(xiàng)目投資方的決策提供重要參考，而且可為該項(xiàng)目的順利實(shí)施提供良好支持，因而具有重要的實(shí)際價(jià)值。 本文在對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)外研究現(xiàn)狀以及項(xiàng)目財(cái)務(wù)評(píng)估的基本理論、評(píng)估方法進(jìn)行系統(tǒng)描述的基礎(chǔ)上，采用定性分析與定量評(píng)估相結(jié)合、靜態(tài)分析與動(dòng)態(tài)分析相結(jié)合的方法對(duì)GL高速公路建設(shè)項(xiàng)目進(jìn)行了財(cái)務(wù)評(píng)估與風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析。通過收集與分析GL高速公路建設(shè)項(xiàng)目投資估算、資金籌措、成本費(fèi)用以及未來收益的相關(guān)資料，，計(jì)算得出該項(xiàng)目稅后內(nèi)部收益率為5.58%，高于項(xiàng)目的基準(zhǔn)收益率；稅后折現(xiàn)凈現(xiàn)值高達(dá)332,431.91萬元，遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)大于零；靜態(tài)投資回收期為24.3年，動(dòng)態(tài)投資回收期為27.1年，均小于設(shè)定的投資回收期。由此說明，該項(xiàng)目在財(cái)務(wù)上是可行的。 為了提高財(cái)務(wù)評(píng)估結(jié)論的可靠性，本文進(jìn)一步對(duì)GL高速公路建設(shè)項(xiàng)目進(jìn)行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析。其中，財(cái)務(wù)敏感性分析結(jié)果表明，采用25年運(yùn)營(yíng)期，即時(shí)在建設(shè)投資增加10%同時(shí)交通量降低10%的極端不利的情況下，項(xiàng)目的財(cái)務(wù)內(nèi)部收益率仍然高于基準(zhǔn)收益率，說明項(xiàng)目具備一定的抗風(fēng)險(xiǎn)能力。最后，本文還從外部環(huán)境風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和企業(yè)內(nèi)部風(fēng)險(xiǎn)兩個(gè)方面，對(duì)項(xiàng)目涉及的法律法規(guī)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、國(guó)家政策風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、市場(chǎng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、技術(shù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、運(yùn)營(yíng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行了較為詳細(xì)的分析，并提出積極應(yīng)對(duì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的相關(guān)建議。 本文研究結(jié)果表明，GL高速公路建設(shè)項(xiàng)目能夠預(yù)定的時(shí)間內(nèi)收回成本并帶來可觀的經(jīng)濟(jì)效益和社會(huì)效益，同時(shí)也具備較強(qiáng)的抵御風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的能力。整體而言，該項(xiàng)目在財(cái)務(wù)上是可行的。
[Abstract]:In 2008, the international financial storm caused great damage to the development of the world economy. In order to cope with the adverse effects of the international financial storm, the Chinese government has implemented a positive policy of expanding domestic demand. To stabilize people's livelihood, maintain growth and speed up the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries has become the primary task of China's national economic development. Government investment and infrastructure projects as the focus of the implementation of policies to expand domestic demand and maintain growth. In the aspect of highway construction, the central government emphasizes the national highway network construction as the leading point, and strengthens the construction of interprovincial connection line. By 2015, the national highway network. GL expressway project is an important part of the national and Guangdong province highway network planning. Its construction is of great significance for the improvement of highway network between China and Guangdong province, the optimization of regional highway network layout and the improvement of driving conditions. This paper is based on the theory and method of engineering economic analysis. The financial evaluation and risk analysis of GL expressway project can not only provide an important reference for the decision of the project investors, but also provide good support for the smooth implementation of the project. Therefore, it has important practical value. Based on the systematic description of domestic and foreign research status and the basic theories and methods of project financial evaluation, this paper combines qualitative analysis with quantitative evaluation. Combining static analysis and dynamic analysis, this paper carries on financial evaluation and risk analysis to GL expressway construction project. Through collecting and analyzing GL expressway construction project investment estimate, raise funds. The relative information of cost and future income is calculated, and the internal rate of return after tax is 5.58, which is higher than the benchmark rate of return of the project. The net present value of after-tax discounted cash is as high as 332, four million three hundred and nineteen thousand and one hundred yuan, far more than zero; The static investment payback period is 24.3 years, and the dynamic investment payback period is 27.1 years, which is less than the fixed investment payback period, which shows that the project is financially feasible. In order to improve the reliability of the financial evaluation conclusion, this paper further carries on the risk analysis to the GL highway construction project. Among them, the financial sensitivity analysis results show that the 25-year operation period is adopted. Even if the construction investment increased by 10% and the traffic volume decreased by 10%, the financial internal rate of return of the project is still higher than the benchmark rate of return, indicating that the project has a certain ability to resist risk. Finally. This article also from the external environment risk and the enterprise internal risk two aspects, the project involves the laws and regulations risk, the economic environment risk, the national policy risk, the market risk, the technical risk, the operation risk. The financial risk is analyzed in detail, and some suggestions are put forward to deal with the risk actively. The research results show that the project can recover the cost and bring considerable economic and social benefits within the scheduled time, but also has a strong ability to resist risks. The project is financially viable.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華南理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F275;F542

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