本文關鍵詞： 工業(yè)化 運輸化 區(qū)域 互動 VAR　出處：《北京交通大學》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：運輸化是社會經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的前提條件,與工業(yè)化相伴相生。隨著工業(yè)化進程的不斷推進,工業(yè)化與運輸化之間的互動關系也會在總量、結構和質量上隨著時間和區(qū)域的不同存在差異性。尤其是我國幅員遼闊,地理環(huán)境、歷史演變的差異導致我國不同區(qū)域工業(yè)化、運輸化水平顯著不平衡。在如此差異之下它們之間相互作用特征也會存在顯著差異性。在理論分析方面,本文首先在前人研究成果的基礎上對工業(yè)化和運輸化進行概念界定,構建工業(yè)化與運輸化相互作用的理論框架,并對我國工業(yè)化與運輸化發(fā)展從總量、結構和質量上進行了一個整體的觀測和把控,初步判定二者的發(fā)展趨勢,總結和尋找二者的規(guī)律以及相關性。根據(jù)人均GDP、產業(yè)結構、制造業(yè)結構、城鎮(zhèn)化率和就業(yè)結構綜合衡量和劃分當前我國整體以及東中西部典型區(qū)域的工業(yè)化水平和所處的階段進程�；谶@樣一種理論前提與區(qū)域劃分,在實證研究方面,本文利用我國2000-2015年典型區(qū)域的時間序列數(shù)據(jù),選取向量自回歸模型(VAR),運用脈沖響應分析方法,分析我國東、中、西部的典型區(qū)域(東部沿海地區(qū)、長江中游地區(qū)、大西北地區(qū))工業(yè)化與運輸化相互動態(tài)影響關系。結果表明..工業(yè)化發(fā)展與運輸化發(fā)展的相互關系存在地區(qū)差異,主要體現(xiàn)在工業(yè)化水平較低的地區(qū),工業(yè)化與運輸化的相互作用主要體現(xiàn)在第二產業(yè)與運輸化總量層面的互動;工業(yè)化水平發(fā)展到一定階段,工業(yè)化對運輸化的作用由運輸總量開始擴展到對運輸化質量的促進作用,而運輸化發(fā)展也開始在質量維度對工業(yè)化產生正向作用;工業(yè)化發(fā)展到比較高級的階段,工業(yè)化與運輸化在總量層面的相互作用開始減弱,工業(yè)化與運輸化在質量層面的相互作用開始凸顯,且在互動關系中第三產業(yè)開始起到更重要的作用。本文主要研究結論包括三個方面:(1)一個地區(qū)隨著工業(yè)化水平和階段的不同,工業(yè)化與運輸化相互關系的作用特征不盡相同;(2)我國不同經(jīng)濟區(qū)工業(yè)化與運輸化發(fā)展水平存在比較明顯的差異;(3)我國工業(yè)化水平高的東部地區(qū)工業(yè)化與運輸化相互關系有從總量層面到質量層面發(fā)展的趨勢,且互動過程中第三產業(yè)扮演著越來越重要的角色;在工業(yè)化水平不夠發(fā)達地區(qū)(如長江中游與大西北地區(qū))主要任務是提高經(jīng)濟水平,發(fā)展第二產業(yè),而工業(yè)化與運輸化的總量之間存在顯著的互動作用,尤其是中部地區(qū),承接了東部地區(qū)產業(yè)轉移,有很大的發(fā)展?jié)摿?工業(yè)化與運輸化之間在各個層面的互動關系最為顯著。最后,文章根據(jù)研究的結論提出相應的政策建議。
[Abstract]:Transportation is the prerequisite of social and economic development, and it is accompanied by industrialization. With the continuous progress of industrialization, the interaction between industrialization and transport will also be in the total amount. In terms of structure and quality, there are differences between different regions and time, especially the differences of China's vast territory, geographical environment and historical evolution lead to the industrialization of different regions in China. The level of transport is significantly unbalanced. Under such differences, there will also be significant differences in the characteristics of their interactions. Firstly, this paper defines the concept of industrialization and transportalization on the basis of previous research results, constructs the theoretical framework of the interaction between industrialization and transportalization, and develops the total amount of industrialization and transportalization in China. The structure and quality of a whole observation and control, preliminary determine the development trend of the two, sum up and find out the law and correlation between the two, according to per capita GDP, industrial structure, manufacturing structure. The urbanization rate and employment structure synthetically measure and divide the industrialization level and the process of the typical regions in the east, west and west of China. Based on such a theoretical premise and regional division. In the empirical research, this paper uses the time series data of China's typical regions from 2000 to 2015, selects the vector autoregressive model (VARA), and uses the impulse response analysis method to analyze the east and the middle of China. Typical areas in the west (eastern coastal areas, middle reaches of the Yangtze River). The results show that there are regional differences between industrialization development and transportation development, mainly in the areas with low industrialization level. The interaction between industrialization and transportation is mainly reflected in the interaction between the secondary industry and the total amount of transportation. Industrialization level developed to a certain stage, the effect of industrialization on transportation began to expand from the total amount of transport to the promotion of transport quality, and the development of transport began to produce positive effects on industrialization in the quality dimension. Industrialization developed to a higher stage, industrialization and transport in the total level of interaction began to weaken, industrialization and transport in the quality level of the interaction began to highlight. And in the interaction between the tertiary industry began to play a more important role. The main conclusions of this paper include three aspects: 1) A region with different levels and stages of industrialization. The interaction between industrialization and transportation is different. 2) there are obvious differences between industrialization and transportation development level in different economic zones in China; 3) the relationship between industrialization and transportation in the east of China with high industrialization level has a tendency from the total quantity level to the quality level, and the tertiary industry plays a more and more important role in the interactive process. In the underdeveloped areas (such as the middle reaches of the Yangtze River and the northwest of the Yangtze River), the main task is to improve the economic level and develop the secondary industry, and there is a significant interaction between the industrialization and the total amount of transportation. In particular, the central region, to undertake the eastern region of industrial transfer, there is a great potential for development, industrialization and transport between the most significant interaction at all levels. Finally. According to the conclusions of the study, the article puts forward corresponding policy recommendations.
【學位授予單位】：北京交通大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F424;F512

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