本文關(guān)鍵詞： 鐵路貨運 投資政策 系統(tǒng)動力學(xué) 鐵路投資 鐵路投資投向　出處：《北京交通大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：摘要：自21世紀(jì)初開始,中國國民經(jīng)濟增長速度一直維持在一個較高水平,鐵路貨運供給量增長速度卻相對滯后,路網(wǎng)密度與經(jīng)濟發(fā)展水平不符,無法滿足各產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展所生成的鐵路貨運需求,逐漸形成了制約中國經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的“瓶頸”。因此中國政府非常重視對鐵路貨運的投資,先后制定多項政策,推動鐵路行業(yè)投融資體制改革,吸收多元主體投資,增加對鐵路行業(yè)的總投入,提高鐵路貨運供給能力,增強基礎(chǔ)保障能力,適應(yīng)經(jīng)濟發(fā)展要求。關(guān)于投資對鐵路貨運的影響的量化研究因此受到重視,本文以此為出發(fā)點嘗試采用系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)模型來研究投資政策對鐵路貨運的影響機制。 本文研究了鐵路投資與鐵路貨運之間的互動關(guān)系,定性分析兩者之間的影響機制,從宏觀角度,對影響中國鐵路貨運的各項因素進行定量和定性相結(jié)合的分析,研究各項因素間的因果關(guān)系,并建立鐵路投資對貨運影響的系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)模型。運用系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)軟件vensim,量化分析了鐵路投資對鐵路貨運的影響,并針對鐵路投資量和投資投向結(jié)構(gòu)等政策因素,構(gòu)造不同的政策模擬,得出不同投資量和投資投向結(jié)構(gòu)下鐵路貨運和鐵路貨運收入的變化趨勢。論文的結(jié)論為,適度增加鐵路行業(yè)投資量和合理調(diào)整投資結(jié)構(gòu)有利于中國鐵路貨運發(fā)展。
[Abstract]:Abstract: since the beginning of 21th century, China's national economic growth rate has been maintained at a higher level, the railway freight supply growth rate is relatively lagging behind, road network density and economic development level is not consistent. Unable to meet the demand of railway freight transport generated by the development of various industries, the Chinese government has gradually formed a "bottleneck" that restricts the development of China's economy. Therefore, the Chinese government attaches great importance to the investment in railway freight transport and has formulated many policies one after another. We will promote the reform of the investment and financing system of the railway industry, absorb the investment of multiple subjects, increase the total investment in the railway industry, improve the supply capacity of railway freight transport, and enhance the capacity of basic support. In order to meet the requirements of economic development, the quantitative research on the impact of investment on railway freight transport has been paid attention to. This paper tries to use system dynamics model to study the influence mechanism of investment policy on railway freight transport. This paper studies the interactive relationship between railway investment and railway freight, and qualitatively analyzes the influence mechanism between them, from a macro perspective. The factors affecting Chinese railway freight are analyzed quantitatively and qualitatively, and the causality among these factors is studied. The influence of railway investment on freight transport is analyzed quantitatively by using the system dynamics software vensim. and the system dynamics model of railway investment on freight transportation is established. Aiming at the policy factors such as railway investment amount and investment investment structure, different policy simulation is constructed, and the change trend of railway freight and railway freight revenue under different investment and investment investment structure is obtained. The conclusion of this paper is as follows. A moderate increase in the amount of investment in the railway industry and a rational adjustment of the investment structure are conducive to the development of China's railway freight transport.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：北京交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F532

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