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  本文關(guān)鍵詞：交通運輸業(yè)能源回彈效應(yīng)實證研究　出處：《長安大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 交通運輸 能源強度 技術(shù)進步 回彈效應(yīng)

【摘要】：近年來，隨著中國社會經(jīng)濟的快速發(fā)展和節(jié)能減排政策措施的實施推進，交通運輸業(yè)能源使用效率逐步提升，但能源消費量并沒有隨著能源使用效率的提升而減少，反而呈現(xiàn)出了較為顯著的增長趨勢，這種在能源使用效率提高時能源消費量并未相應(yīng)減少的現(xiàn)象被稱為“回彈效應(yīng)”。能源回彈效應(yīng)在交通運輸業(yè)的存在，使得交通運輸業(yè)節(jié)能政策措施的實際效果與預(yù)計目標(biāo)發(fā)生錯位，在一定程度上阻礙政策措施的科學(xué)制定和有效實施。因此，如何通過深入研究交通運輸業(yè)能源回彈效應(yīng)，為相關(guān)節(jié)能政策措施的制定實施和效果評估提供參考借鑒將成為交通運輸業(yè)節(jié)能減排研究的重要議題。 本文界定了交通運輸業(yè)能源回彈效應(yīng)的基本概念及內(nèi)涵，提出了交通運輸業(yè)能源回彈效應(yīng)的分析框架，分析了交通運輸行業(yè)存在能源回彈效應(yīng)的產(chǎn)生原因及作用機制，在此基礎(chǔ)上建立了交通運輸業(yè)能源回彈效應(yīng)的基本測算模型；并且進一步分析了交通運輸業(yè)技術(shù)進步對能源使用效率和能源消費總量變化的影響，提出了基于LMDI方法的交通運輸業(yè)技術(shù)進步效應(yīng)值測算模型以及基于改進C-D生產(chǎn)函數(shù)的交通運輸業(yè)技術(shù)進步貢獻率測算模型。 基于上述測算模型，本文以中國2000-2010年交通運輸業(yè)能源數(shù)據(jù)為基礎(chǔ)進行了交通運輸業(yè)能源回彈效應(yīng)實證分析，測算了中國交通運輸業(yè)總體能源回彈效應(yīng)值及各種運輸方式能源回彈效應(yīng)值，研究結(jié)果表明：（1）2000-2010年，中國交通運輸業(yè)技術(shù)進步的相關(guān)政策措施節(jié)能成效顯著，但運輸結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整在一定程度上阻礙了能源消費量的減少。（2）2000-2010年，中國交通運輸業(yè)整體的能源回彈效應(yīng)處于較高的水平，且“十一五”期間的回彈效應(yīng)值大于“十五”期間的回彈效應(yīng)值，應(yīng)進一步引導(dǎo)運輸需求向低能耗行業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移。（3）2000-2010年，中國公路運輸業(yè)回彈效應(yīng)值低，且能源強度降低空間大、能源消費占比大，應(yīng)成為重點節(jié)能領(lǐng)域；民航運輸業(yè)能源強度最高，回彈效應(yīng)值較高，能源消費增長過快，應(yīng)重點加強技術(shù)節(jié)能和管理節(jié)能；鐵路運輸和水路運輸是有利于能源節(jié)約的運輸方式，應(yīng)重點加強基礎(chǔ)配套設(shè)施建設(shè)，提升服務(wù)水平，以更好的滿足運輸需求。（4）降低中國交通運輸業(yè)的能源回彈效應(yīng)，需要從交通運輸技術(shù)進步、運輸結(jié)構(gòu)和企業(yè)規(guī)模調(diào)整以及運輸用能管理等方面統(tǒng)籌協(xié)調(diào)，充分發(fā)揮能源市場和運輸市場的調(diào)節(jié)作用，，以能源強度和能源消費量作為雙重節(jié)能目標(biāo)，切實形成多方聯(lián)動。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the implementation of China to promote the rapid development of social economy and energy-saving emission reduction policies and measures, the efficiency of transportation energy increased gradually, but the energy consumption does not diminish with energy use efficiency, but showed a significant growth trend, the energy consumption in the improvement of energy efficiency has not the corresponding decrease in the phenomenon known as the "rebound effect". The existence of energy rebound effect in the transportation industry, the actual effect of such policies and measures of transportation industry and the expected goal dislocation, scientific formulation and effective implementation of policies and measures to hinder to a certain extent. Therefore, how to through the deep Research on the energy rebound effect of transportation to provide a reference for industry, will become the industry on energy conservation and emission reduction of transportation to formulate proposals for implementation and evaluation of energy saving policies and measures Questions.
This paper defines the basic concept and connotation of energy rebound effect of the transportation industry, put forward the analysis framework of transportation energy rebound effect, analysis of the existing energy rebound effect of transportation industry causes and mechanism, is established based on the basic model of calculating energy rebound effect of transportation; and further analyzes the traffic the transportation industry of technological progress on energy efficiency and effect of change of the total energy consumption calculation model is proposed based on the value of transportation industry technology progress effect LMDI method and calculation model of transportation technology progress contribution rate based on improved C-D production function.
The calculation model based on the Chinese 2000-2010 transportation energy data as the basis for the rebound effect of energy consumption of transportation industry analysis, calculates the energy rebound effect China transportation industry overall energy rebound effect value and the value of various modes of transport, the results of the study show that: (1) 2000-2010 years, such policies and measures related to the effectiveness of technology transportation industry China progress significantly, but the transportation structure adjustment to some extent hindered the reduction of energy consumption. (2) 2000-2010, China energy rebound effect transportation industry overall is in a higher level, and the "rebound effect" in 11th Five-Year during the rebound value effect is greater than the "fifteen" period value should be to further guide the transportation demand shifts to low energy consumption industry. (3) 2000-2010, China highway transportation industry rebound effect value is low, and the reduction of energy intensity space and energy consumption. A large proportion of fees, should be the key areas of energy conservation; civil aviation transportation industry energy intensity is highest, the rebound effect value is higher, the energy consumption growth, should focus on strengthening the management of energy saving and energy saving technology; railway transportation and waterway transportation is conducive to energy saving mode of transport, should focus on strengthening infrastructure construction, improve the service level. In order to better meet the demand of transportation. (4) reduce the energy rebound effect China transportation industry, need to progress from the transportation technology, energy management and other aspects of co-ordination with the transport structure and enterprise scale adjustment and transport, give full play to the regulating role of energy market and shipping market, with energy intensity and energy consumption as double the target of energy saving, the formation of multi linkage.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：長安大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F512;F205

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本文編號：1369658