本文關(guān)鍵詞：交通運(yùn)輸業(yè)能源回彈效應(yīng)實(shí)證研究　出處：《長(zhǎng)安大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 交通運(yùn)輸 能源強(qiáng)度 技術(shù)進(jìn)步 回彈效應(yīng)

【摘要】：近年來，隨著中國(guó)社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的快速發(fā)展和節(jié)能減排政策措施的實(shí)施推進(jìn)，交通運(yùn)輸業(yè)能源使用效率逐步提升，但能源消費(fèi)量并沒有隨著能源使用效率的提升而減少，反而呈現(xiàn)出了較為顯著的增長(zhǎng)趨勢(shì)，這種在能源使用效率提高時(shí)能源消費(fèi)量并未相應(yīng)減少的現(xiàn)象被稱為“回彈效應(yīng)”。能源回彈效應(yīng)在交通運(yùn)輸業(yè)的存在，使得交通運(yùn)輸業(yè)節(jié)能政策措施的實(shí)際效果與預(yù)計(jì)目標(biāo)發(fā)生錯(cuò)位，在一定程度上阻礙政策措施的科學(xué)制定和有效實(shí)施。因此，如何通過深入研究交通運(yùn)輸業(yè)能源回彈效應(yīng)，為相關(guān)節(jié)能政策措施的制定實(shí)施和效果評(píng)估提供參考借鑒將成為交通運(yùn)輸業(yè)節(jié)能減排研究的重要議題。 本文界定了交通運(yùn)輸業(yè)能源回彈效應(yīng)的基本概念及內(nèi)涵，提出了交通運(yùn)輸業(yè)能源回彈效應(yīng)的分析框架，分析了交通運(yùn)輸行業(yè)存在能源回彈效應(yīng)的產(chǎn)生原因及作用機(jī)制，在此基礎(chǔ)上建立了交通運(yùn)輸業(yè)能源回彈效應(yīng)的基本測(cè)算模型；并且進(jìn)一步分析了交通運(yùn)輸業(yè)技術(shù)進(jìn)步對(duì)能源使用效率和能源消費(fèi)總量變化的影響，提出了基于LMDI方法的交通運(yùn)輸業(yè)技術(shù)進(jìn)步效應(yīng)值測(cè)算模型以及基于改進(jìn)C-D生產(chǎn)函數(shù)的交通運(yùn)輸業(yè)技術(shù)進(jìn)步貢獻(xiàn)率測(cè)算模型。 基于上述測(cè)算模型，本文以中國(guó)2000-2010年交通運(yùn)輸業(yè)能源數(shù)據(jù)為基礎(chǔ)進(jìn)行了交通運(yùn)輸業(yè)能源回彈效應(yīng)實(shí)證分析，測(cè)算了中國(guó)交通運(yùn)輸業(yè)總體能源回彈效應(yīng)值及各種運(yùn)輸方式能源回彈效應(yīng)值，研究結(jié)果表明：（1）2000-2010年，中國(guó)交通運(yùn)輸業(yè)技術(shù)進(jìn)步的相關(guān)政策措施節(jié)能成效顯著，但運(yùn)輸結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整在一定程度上阻礙了能源消費(fèi)量的減少。（2）2000-2010年，中國(guó)交通運(yùn)輸業(yè)整體的能源回彈效應(yīng)處于較高的水平，且“十一五”期間的回彈效應(yīng)值大于“十五”期間的回彈效應(yīng)值，應(yīng)進(jìn)一步引導(dǎo)運(yùn)輸需求向低能耗行業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移。（3）2000-2010年，中國(guó)公路運(yùn)輸業(yè)回彈效應(yīng)值低，且能源強(qiáng)度降低空間大、能源消費(fèi)占比大，應(yīng)成為重點(diǎn)節(jié)能領(lǐng)域；民航運(yùn)輸業(yè)能源強(qiáng)度最高，回彈效應(yīng)值較高，能源消費(fèi)增長(zhǎng)過快，應(yīng)重點(diǎn)加強(qiáng)技術(shù)節(jié)能和管理節(jié)能；鐵路運(yùn)輸和水路運(yùn)輸是有利于能源節(jié)約的運(yùn)輸方式，應(yīng)重點(diǎn)加強(qiáng)基礎(chǔ)配套設(shè)施建設(shè)，提升服務(wù)水平，以更好的滿足運(yùn)輸需求。（4）降低中國(guó)交通運(yùn)輸業(yè)的能源回彈效應(yīng)，需要從交通運(yùn)輸技術(shù)進(jìn)步、運(yùn)輸結(jié)構(gòu)和企業(yè)規(guī)模調(diào)整以及運(yùn)輸用能管理等方面統(tǒng)籌協(xié)調(diào)，充分發(fā)揮能源市場(chǎng)和運(yùn)輸市場(chǎng)的調(diào)節(jié)作用，，以能源強(qiáng)度和能源消費(fèi)量作為雙重節(jié)能目標(biāo)，切實(shí)形成多方聯(lián)動(dòng)。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the implementation of China to promote the rapid development of social economy and energy-saving emission reduction policies and measures, the efficiency of transportation energy increased gradually, but the energy consumption does not diminish with energy use efficiency, but showed a significant growth trend, the energy consumption in the improvement of energy efficiency has not the corresponding decrease in the phenomenon known as the "rebound effect". The existence of energy rebound effect in the transportation industry, the actual effect of such policies and measures of transportation industry and the expected goal dislocation, scientific formulation and effective implementation of policies and measures to hinder to a certain extent. Therefore, how to through the deep Research on the energy rebound effect of transportation to provide a reference for industry, will become the industry on energy conservation and emission reduction of transportation to formulate proposals for implementation and evaluation of energy saving policies and measures Questions.
This paper defines the basic concept and connotation of energy rebound effect of the transportation industry, put forward the analysis framework of transportation energy rebound effect, analysis of the existing energy rebound effect of transportation industry causes and mechanism, is established based on the basic model of calculating energy rebound effect of transportation; and further analyzes the traffic the transportation industry of technological progress on energy efficiency and effect of change of the total energy consumption calculation model is proposed based on the value of transportation industry technology progress effect LMDI method and calculation model of transportation technology progress contribution rate based on improved C-D production function.
The calculation model based on the Chinese 2000-2010 transportation energy data as the basis for the rebound effect of energy consumption of transportation industry analysis, calculates the energy rebound effect China transportation industry overall energy rebound effect value and the value of various modes of transport, the results of the study show that: (1) 2000-2010 years, such policies and measures related to the effectiveness of technology transportation industry China progress significantly, but the transportation structure adjustment to some extent hindered the reduction of energy consumption. (2) 2000-2010, China energy rebound effect transportation industry overall is in a higher level, and the "rebound effect" in 11th Five-Year during the rebound value effect is greater than the "fifteen" period value should be to further guide the transportation demand shifts to low energy consumption industry. (3) 2000-2010, China highway transportation industry rebound effect value is low, and the reduction of energy intensity space and energy consumption. A large proportion of fees, should be the key areas of energy conservation; civil aviation transportation industry energy intensity is highest, the rebound effect value is higher, the energy consumption growth, should focus on strengthening the management of energy saving and energy saving technology; railway transportation and waterway transportation is conducive to energy saving mode of transport, should focus on strengthening infrastructure construction, improve the service level. In order to better meet the demand of transportation. (4) reduce the energy rebound effect China transportation industry, need to progress from the transportation technology, energy management and other aspects of co-ordination with the transport structure and enterprise scale adjustment and transport, give full play to the regulating role of energy market and shipping market, with energy intensity and energy consumption as double the target of energy saving, the formation of multi linkage.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：長(zhǎng)安大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F512;F205

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本文編號(hào)：1369658