【摘要】：北京市作為首都,近年來(lái),在快速發(fā)展的同時(shí),“大城市病”問(wèn)題日益突出。這在北京市教育行業(yè)發(fā)展中也得到了體現(xiàn),例如教育擁堵、資源不足、分配不均等。針對(duì)北京市教育行業(yè)發(fā)展存在的問(wèn)題,《京津冀協(xié)同發(fā)展規(guī)劃綱要》(以下簡(jiǎn)稱(chēng)《綱要》)明確指出,教育作為非首都核心功能,需要疏解。同時(shí),《綱要》也明確指出,疏解北京市教育的非核心功能應(yīng)主要從以下兩點(diǎn)著手:嚴(yán)格控制增量和有序疏解存量。本文通過(guò)對(duì)未來(lái)北京市教育機(jī)構(gòu)增長(zhǎng)數(shù)量建立預(yù)測(cè)模型,使政府就未來(lái)增量可以定量分析,從而針對(duì)控制增量和疏解存量做出更加科學(xué)的決策,最終促進(jìn)北京市教育未來(lái)可持續(xù)化發(fā)展。本文針對(duì)上述問(wèn)題進(jìn)行了研究,研究過(guò)程中所做的主要工作如下:第一,從信息分析角度對(duì)北京市教育發(fā)展情況相關(guān)信息進(jìn)行搜集、整理和分析,分析北京市教育近年發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀,進(jìn)而對(duì)其現(xiàn)狀原因進(jìn)行分析,并指出當(dāng)前發(fā)展過(guò)程中存在的問(wèn)題。第二,在信息預(yù)測(cè)方法中,使用基于改進(jìn)的ARIMA模型作為本文的預(yù)測(cè)模型。針對(duì)本文使用的模型及其應(yīng)用現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行了介紹,接著運(yùn)用ARIMA模型和神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)組合模型,預(yù)測(cè)北京市教育機(jī)構(gòu)數(shù)量的變化趨勢(shì),并對(duì)預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果進(jìn)行評(píng)價(jià)。由于模型可以表達(dá)時(shí)間序列中的線性和非線性成分,其預(yù)測(cè)效果比單一模型更好,能更準(zhǔn)確的預(yù)測(cè)出北京市教育機(jī)構(gòu)數(shù)量。第三,在模型預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果基礎(chǔ)上,結(jié)合北京市教育現(xiàn)狀分析,從優(yōu)化教育資源配置角度出發(fā),為未來(lái)北京教育機(jī)構(gòu)數(shù)量如何控制和疏解提供政策建議。
[Abstract]:Beijing as the capital, in recent years, in the rapid development of the "big city disease" problem is increasingly prominent. This is also reflected in the development of the education industry in Beijing, such as education congestion, insufficient resources and unequal distribution. In view of the problems existing in the development of education industry in Beijing, the outline of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei Cooperative Development Plan (hereinafter referred to as "outline") clearly points out that education, as the core function of non-capital, needs to be solved. At the same time, the outline also points out clearly that the non-core function of education in Beijing should be solved mainly from the following two aspects: strictly control the increment and the stock of orderly unwinding. Through the establishment of a forecast model for the future growth of educational institutions in Beijing, this paper makes the government make a more scientific decision on controlling the increment and unlocking the stock by making quantitative analysis on the future increment. Finally, it will promote the sustainable development of education in Beijing in the future. The main work of this paper is as follows: first, from the perspective of information analysis, we collect, collate and analyze the relevant information on the development of education in Beijing. This paper analyzes the present situation of education development in Beijing in recent years, and then analyzes the reasons for the present situation, and points out the problems existing in the current development process. Secondly, in the information prediction method, the improved ARIMA model is used as the prediction model in this paper. This paper introduces the models used in this paper and their application status, and then uses the ARIMA model and the neural network combination model to predict the change trend of the number of educational institutions in Beijing, and evaluates the prediction results. Because the model can express the linear and nonlinear components in the time series, its prediction effect is better than the single model, and it can more accurately predict the number of educational institutions in Beijing. Thirdly, on the basis of the forecast results of the model and the analysis of the present situation of education in Beijing, from the point of view of optimizing the allocation of educational resources, this paper provides policy suggestions on how to control and solve the number of educational institutions in Beijing in the future.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華中師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：G527

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