【摘要】：為了探索空中危險(xiǎn)接近的形成過程與反饋機(jī)制,運(yùn)用系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)的方法深入分析了空中危險(xiǎn)接近影響因素間的復(fù)雜相互作用和回饋效應(yīng),建立了空中危險(xiǎn)接近發(fā)生機(jī)理的動(dòng)態(tài)模型,包括管制服務(wù)、人力資源和安全三大子系統(tǒng),利用Vensim軟件對其進(jìn)行模擬仿真,可預(yù)測不同場景下空中危險(xiǎn)接近的變化趨勢。結(jié)果表明:樂觀場景時(shí),2005—2015年空中危險(xiǎn)接近數(shù)量呈緩慢增長趨勢,2015年之后保持不變,這表明在國內(nèi)航班量穩(wěn)步增長時(shí),空中危險(xiǎn)接近事件的數(shù)量不變,事故率越來越低;悲觀場景時(shí),空中危險(xiǎn)接近數(shù)量一直處于上升趨勢,2021年之前緩慢增長,這表明雖然設(shè)備故障率和管制員的防撞培訓(xùn)頻率不高,但縮短TCAS(Traffic Alert and Collision Avoidance System,空中交通預(yù)警和防撞系統(tǒng))反應(yīng)時(shí)間能在短期內(nèi)明顯提高管制員的專注程度,從而延緩空中不安全事件的數(shù)量增長,但隨著2021年后指揮架次的增加,反應(yīng)時(shí)間越短,空中危險(xiǎn)接近事件會(huì)越多。
[Abstract]:In order to explore the formation process and feedback mechanism of airborne danger approach, the complex interaction and feedback effect among the influencing factors of air hazard approach are analyzed by the method of system dynamics. A dynamic model of the mechanism of air hazard approach is established, which includes three subsystems: control service, human resource and security. By using Vensim software, the dynamic model can predict the trend of air danger approaching in different scenarios. The results show that the number of airborne danger approaching from 2005 to 2015 shows a slow increasing trend, and remains unchanged after 2015, which indicates that the number of airborne dangerous approaching incidents remains unchanged and the accident rate is lower and lower when the number of domestic flights increases steadily; In pessimistic scenarios, the number of airborne hazards has been on the rise, rising slowly until 2021, suggesting that although equipment failure rates and controllers' anti-collision training are not high, But shortening the reaction time of the Traffic Alert and collision Avoidance system can significantly increase the concentration of controllers in the short term, thus slowing the increase in the number of air insecurity incidents, but with the increase in the number of air traffic sorties after 2021, The shorter the reaction time, the more airborne danger approaches events.
【作者單位】： 中國民航大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)與管理學(xué)院;
【基金】：中央高校基本科研業(yè)務(wù)費(fèi)中國民航大學(xué)專項(xiàng)(3122015B001)
【分類號(hào)】：V328;V355.1

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