【摘要】：為明確現(xiàn)階段比利時(shí)輸入中國牛精液攜帶施馬倫貝格病毒的潛在入侵風(fēng)險(xiǎn),基于世界動物衛(wèi)生組織(Office International Des Epizooties,OIE)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評估的框架,結(jié)合貝葉斯統(tǒng)計(jì)推斷的方法,開展現(xiàn)階段比利時(shí)擬輸入中國牛精液產(chǎn)品攜帶施馬倫貝格病毒(Schmallenberg virus,SBV)通過口岸貿(mào)易的輸入量化風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評估。釋放評估顯示,比利時(shí)畜群存在SBV的釋放風(fēng)險(xiǎn)�；趯Ρ壤麜r(shí)的SBV的監(jiān)測監(jiān)控體系、易感畜群監(jiān)視、實(shí)驗(yàn)室診斷方法選擇,結(jié)合檢測方法和試劑有效性的參數(shù)化模擬,顯示比利時(shí)牛精液供體動物SBV陽性預(yù)測值超過66.886 6%的概率不大于0.001 9。參照比利時(shí)2011年度出口到中國的精液批次標(biāo)準(zhǔn),模擬現(xiàn)階段比利時(shí)種用牛精液出口到中國市場每1批次中可能檢出的假陰性概率在82.16%的置信區(qū)間內(nèi)分布在0.001到0.006之間,即1 000批次精液的假陰性檢出批次在82%的置信區(qū)間為1到6個(gè)批次,大于6個(gè)批次的假陰性概率小于13.63%,大于1個(gè)批次的概率大于95.80%。評估結(jié)論認(rèn)為,從比利時(shí)輸入有關(guān)的牛精液等產(chǎn)品將會對我國養(yǎng)殖畜群及其生態(tài)安全等產(chǎn)生較大的不確定性風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。
[Abstract]:In order to clarify the potential invasion risk of imported Chinese bovine semen from Belgium to carry Schmalenberg virus at this stage, based on the framework of (Office International Des Epizooties,OIE risk assessment of the World Organization for Animal Health, combined with the Bayesian statistical inference method, At the present stage Belgium intends to import Chinese cattle semen products to carry Schmalenberger virus (Schmallenberg virus,SBV) through port trade through the import of quantitative risk assessment. Release assessments show that Belgian herds are at risk of releasing SBV. Based on the monitoring and monitoring system of SBV in Belgium, the surveillance of susceptible herds, the selection of laboratory diagnostic methods, the parameterized simulation of the test method and the effectiveness of the reagent, The probability that the positive predictive value of SBV in Belgian bovine semen donor was more than 66.886 was not greater than 0.001 9. Referring to the standard of semen batches exported to China by Belgium in 2011, At the present stage, the probability of false negative that may be detected in every batch of Belgian cattle semen exported to the Chinese market is between 0.001 and 0.006 within the confidence interval of 82.16%. That is to say, the false negative detectable batches of 1000 batches of semen were 1 to 6 batches in 82% confidence interval, the false negative probability of more than 6 batches was less than 13.63, and the probability of more than one batch was more than 95.80. It is concluded that the import of cattle semen and other products from Belgium will pose a great uncertainty risk to the livestock breeding and its ecological security in China.
【作者單位】： 寧夏大學(xué)農(nóng)學(xué)院;中國動物衛(wèi)生與流行病學(xué)中心;珠海出入境檢驗(yàn)檢疫局;
【基金】：十三五國家重點(diǎn)研發(fā)計(jì)劃(2016YFD0501104) 寧夏自然科學(xué)基金項(xiàng)目(NZ15050)
【分類號】：S852.65

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