發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-03-18 14:52

  本文選題：GIS　切入點(diǎn)：京津冀　出處：《長(zhǎng)安大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：任何事物都有其發(fā)生的時(shí)間、地點(diǎn)以及特定的屬性,這是地理空間數(shù)據(jù)的重要組成部分,也是地理信息系統(tǒng)(GIS)分析和研究的基礎(chǔ)。近年來(lái),隨著計(jì)算機(jī)技術(shù)的快速發(fā)展,GIS技術(shù)也得到迅速發(fā)展,已應(yīng)用于公共衛(wèi)生、犯罪制圖、交通管理等諸多領(lǐng)域。19世紀(jì)約翰·斯諾首次將地理信息應(yīng)用于流行病研究,如今,GIS技術(shù)為研究疾病的時(shí)空分布特征和相關(guān)問題研究開辟了新的途徑。京津冀地區(qū)細(xì)菌性痢疾的發(fā)病率處于全國(guó)較高水平,且人口密集、流動(dòng)性大。分析京津冀地區(qū)細(xì)菌性痢疾的時(shí)空分布格局和探測(cè)影響因素的影響強(qiáng)度以及交互作用對(duì)該地區(qū)細(xì)菌性痢疾疫情預(yù)防、減少經(jīng)濟(jì)損失有重要的意義。本研究是GIS技術(shù)在流行病學(xué)領(lǐng)域中的應(yīng)用,研究方法可為相關(guān)領(lǐng)域的研究提供借鑒,研究結(jié)果填補(bǔ)了京津冀地區(qū)細(xì)菌性痢疾研究的空白,為該地區(qū)公共衛(wèi)生部門制定相關(guān)防控政策和措施以及醫(yī)療資源的合理配置提供科學(xué)依據(jù)。本研究以京津冀地區(qū)細(xì)菌性痢疾病例數(shù)據(jù)為研究對(duì)象,通過ArcGIS建立疾病地理空間數(shù)據(jù)庫(kù),運(yùn)用描述性分析和ArcGIS分析了京津冀地區(qū)細(xì)菌性痢疾的時(shí)空分布特征及空間相關(guān)性;使用時(shí)空掃描統(tǒng)計(jì)量(SaTScan軟件)研究了細(xì)菌性痢疾可能的高發(fā)聚集區(qū)。然后使用地理探測(cè)器,探索了所選氣象因素和社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)因素對(duì)細(xì)菌性痢疾時(shí)空分布的影響強(qiáng)度以及各因素之間的交互作用。在此基礎(chǔ)上,運(yùn)用分布滯后非線性模型,研究了氣溫對(duì)京津冀高發(fā)聚集區(qū)細(xì)菌性痢疾的滯后效應(yīng)。主要得出以下結(jié)論:(1)細(xì)菌性痢疾的時(shí)空分布特征:在時(shí)間上,無(wú)論是整個(gè)研究區(qū)還是研究區(qū)中的各個(gè)市甚至縮小到縣/區(qū),細(xì)菌性痢疾的發(fā)生都存在明顯的季節(jié)性,高發(fā)月份在5至10月;空間上,細(xì)菌性痢疾的分布存在區(qū)域差異性,發(fā)病率較高的地區(qū)分布于北京市、天津市和邯鄲市,其中發(fā)病率最高的是河北省邯鄲市的館陶縣((186.71/10萬(wàn))。(2)細(xì)菌性痢疾的時(shí)空聚集性:京津冀地區(qū)細(xì)菌性痢疾存在明顯的空間自相關(guān)性,且存在多個(gè)可能的高發(fā)聚集區(qū)�？臻g掃描統(tǒng)計(jì)量的結(jié)果表明,細(xì)菌性痢疾在空間上存在不同程度的爆發(fā),可能的高發(fā)聚集區(qū)有5個(gè),其中聚集性最強(qiáng)的聚集區(qū)位于北京市及其周邊的19個(gè)縣/區(qū),其危險(xiǎn)程度RR值為2.44,而天津市所轄的部分縣/區(qū)位于次級(jí)高發(fā)聚集區(qū),但其危險(xiǎn)程度最大,RR值為3.59。時(shí)空掃描統(tǒng)計(jì)量的結(jié)果表明,在6月份至8月份,不同地區(qū)細(xì)菌性痢疾有不同程度的爆發(fā),可能的高發(fā)聚集區(qū)有6個(gè),其中聚集性最強(qiáng)的聚集區(qū)位于天津市的大部分地區(qū),其危險(xiǎn)程度為4.94。(3)細(xì)菌性痢疾時(shí)空分布影響因素研究:氣象因素中日平均氣溫和日相對(duì)濕度對(duì)細(xì)菌性痢疾的季節(jié)分布的影響較強(qiáng);氣象因素之間的交互作用都顯著強(qiáng)于各因素的單獨(dú)作用,其中交互作用最大的是日平均氣溫和日相對(duì)濕度,解釋力為87%。不同的區(qū)域,影響細(xì)菌性痢疾空間分布的社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)因素不同。在北京、天津等第一研究區(qū),人口密度和居民人均純收入對(duì)其的影響較強(qiáng);而以河北省為主的第二研究區(qū),小學(xué)在校人數(shù)比重和人均GDP起的作用較強(qiáng)。另外,兩個(gè)子研究區(qū)中各社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)因素之間的交互作用也都顯著強(qiáng)于各因素的單獨(dú)作用。(4)氣溫對(duì)細(xì)菌性痢疾的發(fā)生有明顯的滯后效應(yīng),且滯后效應(yīng)為一種非線性關(guān)系;在不同地區(qū),滯后的天數(shù)、滯后效應(yīng)等不同。
[Abstract]:Everything has its time of occurrence, location and specific properties, which is an important part of geographic spatial data, and geographic information system (GIS) based on the analysis and research. In recent years, with the rapid development of computer technology, GIS technology has been rapid development, has been applied to public health, crime mapping traffic management, and many other areas of the.19 century John Snow for the first time to study, the geographic information used in epidemiology today, GIS technology provides a new way to study the temporal and spatial distribution of the disease and the related problems. The incidence of bacillary dysentery in Beijing Tianjin Hebei region was higher at the national level, and population density, mobility analysis of bacterial. Dysentery in Beijing Tianjin Hebei region spatial distribution pattern and detect the influence intensity and interaction on prevention of bacterial dysentery epidemic in the region, reduce economic losses are important The significance of this research is the application of GIS technology in the field of epidemiology, the research methods can provide reference for the related research in the field, the results of the study fills the blank of study on bacterial dysentery in the Beijing Tianjin Hebei region, and provide scientific basis for the rational allocation of public health departments in the region to formulate relevant policies and measures to prevention and control and medical resources in this research. In cases of bacterial dysentery data of Beijing Tianjin Hebei region as the research object, through the establishment of ArcGIS disease geospatial database, using descriptive analysis and ArcGIS analysis of the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics and spatial correlation of bacterial dysentery in Beijing Tianjin Hebei region; using space-time scan statistic (SaTScan software) on the incidence of bacillary dysentery may then use the geographic gathering area. The detector, explore the selected meteorological factors and social economic factors on the impact of bacterial dysentery in the temporal and spatial distribution of intensity and factors The interaction between. On this basis, using the distributed lag nonlinear model, study the lag effect of temperature on the Beijing Tianjin Hebei area high incidence of bacillary dysentery. Main conclusions are as follows: (1) the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of bacillary dysentery: in time, whether it is the whole study area or in each city in the study area even down to the county / District, incidence of bacillary dysentery has obvious seasonal, high in the month 5 to October; the space, distribution of bacillary dysentery has regional differences, with high incidence area located in Beijing City, Tianjin city and Handan City, of which the highest incidence is in Hebei of Handan province the city of Guantao county ((186.71/10 million). (2) temporal aggregation: bacterial dysentery bacillary dysentery in Beijing Tianjin Hebei region exist obvious spatial autocorrelation, a possible high accumulation area and spatial scan statistics. The results show that, There are different degrees of bacillary dysentery outbreak in space, may the high gathering area has 5, including 19 counties / district gathered the highest clustering is located in Beijing city and its surrounding area, the risk degree of RR value is 2.44, and part of the county / Tianjin city under the jurisdiction of the district is located in the secondary high gathering area but, the risk degree, RR value of 3.59. space-time scan statistic results show that from June to August, bacterial dysentery in different regions have different levels of the outbreak, may have 6 high accumulation area, the gathering area gathered the most located in Tianjin City, part of the area, the degree of risk for 4.94. (3) to study the influencing factors of bacterial dysentery: in the temporal and spatial distribution of daily average temperature and meteorological factors on the influence of relative humidity on the seasonal distribution of bacillary dysentery is strong; single interaction between meteorological factors are significantly stronger than that of various factors, including The interaction is the largest daily average temperature and relative humidity, explain 87%. different regions, social and economic factors affecting the spatial distribution of different bacterial dysentery. In Beijing, Tianjin, the first study area, population density and per capita net income residents and the effects of strong; and mainly in Hebei Province second study area the number of primary school, and the proportion of per capita GDP role is strong. In addition, individual interaction between the social economic factors in the two study area are significantly stronger than the factors. (4) the temperature of bacillary dysentery has obvious lag effect and hysteresis effect for a nonlinear relationship; in different regions, lag days, hysteresis effect is different.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：長(zhǎng)安大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：R516.4

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1 李媛媛;京津冀地區(qū)細(xì)菌性痢疾時(shí)空分布格局及其影響因素研究[D];長(zhǎng)安大學(xué);2017年

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本文編號(hào)：1630060