本文關(guān)鍵詞：中國省際資本存量與資本回報率，由筆耕文化傳播整理發(fā)布。

中國省際資本存量與資本回報率

Chinese Provincial Capital Stock and Return to Capital

[1] [2]

Jia Runsong,Zhang Sican

文章摘要：本文以資本折舊率為突破口,利用經(jīng)濟計量的方法估計出不同省份的資本折舊率,重新估算了中國省際資本存量,在此基礎上,對資本回報率進行了再估算。結(jié)果顯示：（1）折舊率的變化不僅反映了區(qū)域間經(jīng)濟發(fā)展水平的差異,也在一定程度上反映了經(jīng)濟周期波動。（2）中國資本產(chǎn)出比近年來增長很快,但與世界工業(yè)強國相比,我國資本產(chǎn)出比尚處于合理范圍內(nèi),資本積累未出現(xiàn)過剩跡象。（3）資本回報率直到金融危機前都保持在相對較高水平,但此后出現(xiàn)反轉(zhuǎn)。省際間資本回報率的差異表現(xiàn)出縮小趨勢,可以推斷危機后較低的資本回報率更多反映了資本在不同產(chǎn)業(yè)和不同類型企業(yè)之間的錯配。與過度投資相比,這或許是中國投資目前面臨的更嚴重問題。

Abstr：This paper takes capital depreciation rate seriously. We employ econometric method to estimate capital depreciation rate of different provinces and the corresponding provincial capital stock at the same time. Then,we put forward new estimates of return to capital based on the above results. The results show that：（ 1） Changes of depreciation rate not only reflect the difference between different regions in economic development,but,to some extent,reflect economic volatility.（ 2） The ratio of capital-output of China increases sharply in recently years,nonetheless,it remains within a reasonable range when compared with other industrial powers, which means there is no signs of excess capital accumulation.（ 3） Return to capital maintained a high level before global financial crisis,followed by dramatic decline in the afterwards. Capital allocation efficiency in provinces,which constitute one of the backbone of return on capital,has improved in the past two decades. As a consequence,we can infer that low return to capital is more a reflection of capital misallocation in different industries and enterprises than overinvestment,which may be a much more serious problem confronting Chinese investment.

文章關(guān)鍵詞：

Keyword：:Capital Stock Depreciation Rate Capital-Output Ratio Return to Capital

  本文關(guān)鍵詞：中國省際資本存量與資本回報率，，由筆耕文化傳播整理發(fā)布。