【摘要】：住宅價格一直是近年來全社會普遍關(guān)注的重要問題,國家不斷出臺各項措施進行調(diào)控,但收效并不明顯。居民改善性住宅需求和投資性住宅需求日漸旺盛,阻礙了剛性需求的釋放,導(dǎo)致住宅市場供需結(jié)構(gòu)發(fā)生變化,引發(fā)市場價格整體波動。而別墅在國家用地審批的嚴格控制下,逐步成為稀缺性存量房產(chǎn)資源,不僅具有改善居住條件的作用,也增強了消化住宅投資需求的能力。別墅價格的波動以及各項價格影響因素的變化,在一定程度上左右著居民投資性及改善性住宅需求,進而對剛性需求市場產(chǎn)生間接作用,同時,不同影響因素對價格的空間作用差異也會對別墅樓盤的分布和價格的空間分布規(guī)律產(chǎn)生影響。 本文以區(qū)位理論、供需理論、消費者理論和住宅價格影響因素理論為基礎(chǔ),在對南京市別墅市場現(xiàn)狀進行供給和需求兩方面的分析的基礎(chǔ)上,利用特征價格模型對真實市場數(shù)據(jù)進行回歸擬合,篩選出對南京市別墅價格影響最明顯的主要影響因素,進而采用空間誤差模型和地理加權(quán)回歸模型將不同影響因素對別墅價格的空間作用系數(shù)納入擬合分析,以得到南京市別墅價格影響因素的作用程度及空間影響規(guī)律。 研究結(jié)果表明,第一,別墅用地的停止審批導(dǎo)致存量別墅用地稀缺性的增強,南京市別墅價格穩(wěn)步增長,別墅供給規(guī)模不斷增加,且以中小戶型為主,表現(xiàn)出顯著的區(qū)域分布差異性；第二,制約南京市別墅價格的主要因素是建筑特征因素和區(qū)位特征因素。具體表現(xiàn)為,物業(yè)費、距CBD距離和交通條件對別墅價格的影響較顯著,容積率和綠化率相對較弱。其中,距CBD距離和容積率對價格的影響為負向,其余指標為正向。第三,空間作用方面,物業(yè)費對價格的空間作用差異表現(xiàn)為“西南-東北”方向遞變趨勢,距CBD距離指標的空間作用差異表現(xiàn)為“東-西”遞變趨勢,而綠化率對別墅價格的正向作用以“主城區(qū)”為中心分別向南、向北遞增,容積率對別墅價格的負向作用以“百家湖”地區(qū)為中心向四周遞減。 鑒于以上研究結(jié)論,本文提出相應(yīng)的政策建議。首先,完善別墅相關(guān)政策規(guī)定,適當(dāng)引導(dǎo)新型別墅需求,充分利用容積率指標和規(guī)劃限制指標,對別墅的開發(fā)建設(shè)進行調(diào)控,合理配置住宅需求；其次,在集約節(jié)約用地的前提下規(guī)范物業(yè)市場,保證物業(yè)條件與物業(yè)費水平相互協(xié)調(diào)；此外,推進城市配套建設(shè)總體規(guī)劃,擴大公共交通網(wǎng)絡(luò)覆蓋面,加強生態(tài)環(huán)境建設(shè),為住宅市場的穩(wěn)步發(fā)展提供良好的設(shè)施保障。
[Abstract]:Housing price has been an important issue that the whole society has paid close attention to in recent years. The government has continuously introduced various measures to regulate and control housing prices, but the results are not obvious. Residents' demand for improved housing and investment housing is becoming more and more vigorous, which hinders the release of rigid demand, which leads to the change of supply and demand structure of housing market and the fluctuation of market price as a whole. Under the strict control of national land approval, villa has gradually become a rare stock of real estate resources, which not only improves the living conditions, but also enhances the ability of digesting the housing investment demand. The fluctuation of villa price and the change of all kinds of price influence factors, to a certain extent, affect the residential demand of investment and improvement, and then produce indirect effect on the rigid demand market, at the same time, Different influence factors on the spatial effect of price will also have an impact on the distribution of villa real estate and the law of spatial distribution of price. Based on location theory, supply and demand theory, consumer theory and housing price influencing factor theory, this paper analyzes the supply and demand of Nanjing villa market. By using the characteristic price model to regression fit the real market data, the main factors that have the most obvious influence on the villa price in Nanjing are screened out. Then spatial error model and geographical weighted regression model are used to analyze the spatial effect coefficient of different influencing factors on villa price in order to get the degree of action and the law of spatial influence of the influencing factors of villa price in Nanjing. The results show that, first, the suspension of the examination and approval of villa land leads to an increase in the scarcity of existing villa land, the price of villa in Nanjing has steadily increased, and the supply scale of villas has been increasing, and the main type of villas is small and medium-sized units. The main factors restricting the price of villa in Nanjing are architectural characteristics and location characteristics. The property cost, distance from CBD and traffic conditions have a significant effect on the villa price, while the volume ratio and green rate are relatively weak. The effect of distance from CBD and volume ratio on price is negative, and the other indexes are positive. Thirdly, the spatial effect of property fee on price shows the trend of "southwest to northeast" direction, and the spatial effect difference of distance from CBD index to "east to west" trend, the spatial effect difference of property fee on price is the trend of "southwest-northeast" direction, and the spatial effect difference of distance from CBD index is "east-west" trend. The positive effect of green rate on villa price is to the south and north of the main urban area, and the negative effect of the volume ratio to the villa price is decreasing in the area of "Baijia Lake". In view of the above conclusions, this paper puts forward corresponding policy recommendations. First of all, improve the relevant policy provisions of villas, properly guide the demand for new villas, make full use of the volume ratio index and planning restriction index, control the development and construction of villas, and rationally allocate the housing demand; secondly, Standardizing the property market under the premise of intensive land conservation to ensure that property conditions are in harmony with the level of property charges; in addition, to promote the overall planning of urban supporting construction, to expand the coverage of public transport networks, and to strengthen the construction of the ecological environment, For the steady development of the housing market to provide good facilities protection.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南京農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F299.23

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