【摘要】：資本形成對一國經濟增長至關重要,而資本形成在很大程度上又是由儲蓄的規(guī)模及儲蓄向投資的轉化決定的。在市場經濟條件下,儲蓄主體和投資主體往往是分離的,這就使得由金融機構和金融市場構成的金融轉化路徑成為儲蓄—投資轉化的主要渠道�？疾焓澜绺鲊洕鹑诎l(fā)展歷程可以發(fā)現(xiàn),由于金融壓抑、金融發(fā)展滯后等原因,金融路徑的儲蓄—投資轉化經常遇到阻滯,使得寶貴的儲蓄資源得不到有效配置,最終影響了經濟發(fā)展。當前,我國經濟進入"新常態(tài)",人口老齡化進程加快,儲蓄率有可能持續(xù)下降,過去以高儲蓄率支撐高投資率,進而帶動經濟增長的發(fā)展模式很難持續(xù)。因此,從金融視角研究儲蓄—投資轉化率提升路徑具有重要的理論意義和實踐價值。本文在綜述國內外關于儲蓄與投資關系以及儲蓄—投資轉化相關文獻的基礎上,采用規(guī)范分析與實證分析相結合的方法,重點對三個問題進行了研究。首先,使用西方主流經濟學范式,在羅默提出的研究與開發(fā)內生增長模型基礎上,放松"儲蓄全部轉化為投資"的強假設,引入儲蓄—投資轉化率變量,建立一個金融內生增長模型,對儲蓄—投資轉化率與經濟增長率之間的關系進行研究,闡明金融發(fā)展影響經濟增長的途徑和機理。其次,運用面板協(xié)整理論,在Feldstein和Horioka提出的儲蓄與投資相關性研究模型基礎上進行擴展,建立固定影響變系數(shù)面板數(shù)據(jù)模型,對一國儲蓄—投資轉化率的評價方法進行研究。以中國為重點,對20國集團的19個成員國(歐盟除外)1980-2011年儲蓄—投資轉化率進行總量分析,對中國、巴西、日本、韓國、英國、美國等6個國家1946-2011年居民、企業(yè)、政府儲蓄—投資轉化率進行分部門分析,對中國31個省、自治區(qū)、直轄市1980-2012年儲蓄—投資轉化率進行分地區(qū)分析,從而對中國儲蓄—投資轉化率進行多維度評價,并分析查找存在的問題。第三,對一國儲蓄—投資轉化率的金融影響因素進行研究,在現(xiàn)有消費、儲蓄、投資理論及實證研究基礎上,總結歸納可能影響儲蓄—投資轉化率的金融因素,建立包含4個一級指標和25個二級指標的儲蓄—投資轉化率金融影響因素的分析框架,利用格蘭杰因果檢驗方法,重點對中國1993-2010年儲蓄—投資轉化率與25項金融指標之間是否存在因果關系進行檢驗,揭示影響中國儲蓄—投資轉化率的金融因素及其影響方向和程度。研究結果表明:第一,經濟增長率由儲蓄—投資轉化率、儲蓄率及資本的邊際產出共同決定,金融發(fā)展通過提高儲蓄—投資轉化率、影響儲蓄率、增加資本的邊際產出等三條途徑影響經濟增長;第二,中國儲蓄—投資轉化率無論從總量看,還是從分部門、分地區(qū)看,均處于中等水平,雖然高于歐美發(fā)達國家,但低于亞洲主要經濟體,并且存在企業(yè)部門轉化率低和地區(qū)間差異大等問題;第三,影響中國儲蓄—投資轉化率的金融因素共7項,其中6項具有正向影響,按照影響程度從大到小排序,依次是存貸比、存款、存貸款利率差、涉農貸款占比、股市波動、金融業(yè)工資總額;1項具有負向影響,為不良貸款率,影響程度最小�；谏鲜鼋Y論,本文從完善金融制度和增強金融市場主體活力兩個角度提出政策建議。其中,在完善金融制度方面,建議提高商業(yè)銀行存貸比、加快利率市場化改革、增強金融制度普惠性、加強資本市場制度建設;在增強金融市場主體活力方面,建議強化資本市場融資功能、推進商業(yè)銀行轉型發(fā)展、提高風險管理能力、改善人力資本管理。
[Abstract]:Capital formation is very important to a country's economic growth, and capital formation is largely determined by the scale of savings and the transformation from savings to investment. Under the condition of market economy, the main body of savings and investment is often separated, which makes the financial transformation path composed of financial institutions and financial markets become savings-investment. The main channel of capital transformation.By investigating the development of economy and finance in the world,we can find that due to the financial depression and the lag of financial development,the saving-investment transformation of the financial path often encounters obstacles,which makes the precious saving resources not be effectively allocated,and finally affects the economic development.At present,China's economy has entered the "new normal" and people are living in the new normal state. With the acceleration of population aging, the savings rate may continue to decline. In the past, it was difficult to sustain the development model of supporting high investment rate with high savings rate and then driving economic growth. On the basis of the literature on the relationship between capital and savings and investment, this paper adopts the method of combining normative analysis with empirical analysis to study three problems. First, using the western mainstream economic paradigm, on the basis of the endogenous growth model of research and development proposed by Romer, the strong hypothesis of "all savings into investment" is relaxed. By introducing the variable of savings-investment conversion rate, this paper establishes a financial endogenous growth model, studies the relationship between savings-investment conversion rate and economic growth rate, and clarifies the way and mechanism of financial development affecting economic growth. Secondly, using panel co-integration theory, this paper proposes a research model of savings-investment correlation proposed by Feldstein and Horioka. Based on the model, a fixed-impact variable-coefficient panel data model is established to study the evaluation method of a country's savings-investment conversion rate.With China as the focus, the total savings-investment conversion rate of 19 member countries of the Group of 20 (except the European Union) from 1980 to 2011 is analyzed. The savings-investment conversion rates of residents, enterprises and governments in China from 1946 to 2011 were analyzed in different sectors. The savings-investment conversion rates of 31 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the Central Government from 1980 to 2012 were analyzed in different regions. The savings-investment conversion rates in China were evaluated in multi-dimension and the existing problems were analyzed. Based on the existing consumption, savings and investment theories and empirical studies, this paper summarizes the financial factors that may affect the savings-investment conversion rate, establishes an analytical framework of the financial factors affecting the savings-investment conversion rate, which includes four first-level indicators and 25 second-level indicators, and uses Granger's method to analyze the financial factors affecting the savings-investment conversion rate. This paper examines the causality between the savings-investment conversion rate and 25 financial indicators in China from 1993 to 2010, reveals the financial factors affecting the savings-investment conversion rate in China and the direction and extent of its impact. The marginal output of capital determines that financial development affects economic growth by raising the savings-investment conversion rate, affecting the savings rate and increasing the marginal output of capital. Secondly, China's savings-investment conversion rate is at a moderate level, both in terms of total amount and in terms of sectors and regions, although higher than that of developed countries in Europe and the United States. Third, there are seven financial factors affecting China's savings-investment conversion rate, six of which have a positive impact, in order of the degree of impact from large to small, followed by the deposit-loan ratio, deposit-loan interest rate difference, the proportion of agricultural-related loans. Based on the above conclusions, this paper puts forward policy suggestions from two angles: perfecting the financial system and strengthening the vitality of the main body of the financial market. Among them, in the aspect of perfecting the financial system, it is suggested to increase the deposit-loan ratio of commercial banks and accelerate the reform of interest rate marketization. In order to enhance the vitality of the main body of the financial market, we should strengthen the financing function of the capital market, promote the transformation and development of commercial banks, improve the risk management ability and improve the human capital management.
【學位授予單位】：天津財經大學
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：F832.22;F832.48

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