【摘要】：統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)是認(rèn)識國情、了解民意、管理企業(yè)、監(jiān)督市場的重要依據(jù)。隨著我國資本市場的發(fā)展,監(jiān)管機構(gòu)和市場投資者對上市公司財務(wù)數(shù)據(jù)的需求與日俱增,對財務(wù)數(shù)據(jù)質(zhì)量的要求越來越高,審計工作的繁雜程度不斷加大,然而這些數(shù)據(jù)的真實性、可靠性卻受到了更多人的質(zhì)疑。因此,檢查與評價上市公司財務(wù)數(shù)據(jù)質(zhì)量,向監(jiān)管機構(gòu)和市場投資者提供真實可靠的信息,不僅是外部審計機構(gòu)的責(zé)任,也是從事數(shù)據(jù)工作的統(tǒng)計學(xué)者的責(zé)任。本文擬根據(jù)數(shù)據(jù)本身的規(guī)律,運用統(tǒng)計學(xué)的方法對上市公司財務(wù)數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行篩選和評價,從另一個角度分析上市公司財務(wù)數(shù)據(jù)質(zhì)量的基本情況,為審計機構(gòu)對上市公司的財務(wù)數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行審計提供參考。本文所做的具有一定新意的工作如下： 首先,對數(shù)據(jù)失真與數(shù)據(jù)造假兩個基本概念進(jìn)行了分析與解釋,指出數(shù)據(jù)失真是實際數(shù)據(jù)與真實數(shù)據(jù)出現(xiàn)了偏離,數(shù)據(jù)造假則是主觀造成數(shù)據(jù)失真的行為。論文還指出對出現(xiàn)異常的上市公司財務(wù)數(shù)據(jù)作進(jìn)一步分析的必要性。這是因為,這種異常可能是真實情況的客觀反映,對監(jiān)管機構(gòu)和市場投資者有著重大的意義,也可能是出現(xiàn)了數(shù)據(jù)造假。 其次,本文以2012年滬深股市全部上市公司為樣本,運用財務(wù)學(xué)和統(tǒng)計學(xué)的方法對財務(wù)指標(biāo)進(jìn)行篩選,建立財務(wù)數(shù)據(jù)檢查評價指標(biāo)體系,并利用因子分析法和Benford法則擬合檢驗法對樣本公司進(jìn)行分析,進(jìn)而篩選出研究的指標(biāo)。 第三,選取2012年上市公司中被出具非標(biāo)準(zhǔn)審計意見的樣本公司與相同數(shù)量的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)審計意見公司進(jìn)行配對。并采用判別分析和Logistic回歸模型對選取的研究樣本公司進(jìn)行判別歸類。判別分析結(jié)果表明：判別分析對標(biāo)準(zhǔn)審計意見公司的分類正確率達(dá)78%,logistic模型法的結(jié)果與審計結(jié)果高度一致,達(dá)到了95%。 第四,根據(jù)篩選出來的樣本池,對其中的樣本公司的具體財務(wù)指標(biāo)作進(jìn)一步檢查與評價。根據(jù)財務(wù)報表性質(zhì)的不同與可能獲得的資料來源,對于資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表中的財務(wù)指標(biāo)采用趨勢模擬法分析,對于利潤表中的財務(wù)指標(biāo)則利用相關(guān)指標(biāo)建立計量模型進(jìn)行分析,在此基礎(chǔ)上再對有關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)質(zhì)量作出評價。
[Abstract]:Statistical data is an important basis for understanding national conditions, understanding public opinion, managing enterprises and supervising the market. With the development of the capital market in our country, the demand for financial data of listed companies is increasing day by day, and the quality of financial data is becoming more and more demanding, and the complexity of audit work is increasing. However, the authenticity and reliability of these data has been questioned by more people. Therefore, to check and evaluate the financial data quality of listed companies and to provide real and reliable information to regulators and market investors is not only the responsibility of external auditors, but also the responsibility of statisticians engaged in data work. According to the law of the data itself, this paper uses the statistical method to screen and evaluate the financial data of listed companies, and analyzes the basic situation of the financial data quality of listed companies from another angle. To provide a reference for audit institutions to audit the financial data of listed companies. The work of this paper is as follows: firstly, two basic concepts of data distortion and data falsification are analyzed and explained, and it is pointed out that the data distortion is the deviation between the actual data and the real data. Data falsification is subjective behavior that causes data distortion. The paper also points out the necessity of further analyzing the financial data of listed companies. That's because the anomaly could be an objective reflection of the truth, significant to regulators and market investors, or data fraud. Secondly, taking all listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets in 2012 as samples, this paper uses the methods of financial science and statistics to screen financial indicators and establish the evaluation index system of financial data inspection. The factor analysis method and Benford law fitting test method are used to analyze the sample company, and then the research index is screened out. Thirdly, the sample companies that were issued non-standard audit opinions in 2012 were matched with the same number of standard audit opinion companies. Discriminant analysis and Logistic regression model are used to classify the selected sample companies. The results of discriminant analysis show that the classification accuracy of discriminant analysis to the standard audit opinion company is 78% and the result of logistic model is in high agreement with the audit result, reaching 95%. Fourth, according to the selected sample pool, the specific financial indicators of the sample companies are further examined and evaluated. According to the nature of the financial statements and the possible sources of information, the financial indicators in the balance sheet are analyzed by trend simulation method, and the financial indicators in the income statement are analyzed by using the relevant indicators to establish a measurement model. On the basis of this, the quality of relevant data is evaluated again.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：廈門大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F276.6;F275;F832.51

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