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我國(guó)股票定投的收益測(cè)算、比較及策略選擇

發(fā)布時(shí)間:2018-09-09 08:15
【摘要】:現(xiàn)階段中國(guó)普通老百姓的投資渠道是較為匱乏的:投資于股票、基金的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)較大,進(jìn)行銀行定期存款則難以實(shí)現(xiàn)資產(chǎn)的保值增值。定期投資是一種較好的適合普通工薪階層的投資方式,目前在我國(guó)已發(fā)展到相當(dāng)?shù)囊?guī)模。本文將股票定投與基金定投進(jìn)行比較,試圖比較基金定投與股票定投間哪種方式更好,股票定投是否可以取代基金定投。 本文以成本分析的方法推導(dǎo)了計(jì)算銀行定存、基金定投、股票定投收益率的公式,并以已經(jīng)存在的數(shù)據(jù)為基礎(chǔ),對(duì)30只股票在2003—2013年十年時(shí)間段進(jìn)行了股票定投的模擬操作,并對(duì)收益和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行了詳盡的測(cè)算。計(jì)算了在這十年時(shí)間內(nèi)執(zhí)行這三種投資方式所能獲取的投資收益率、標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差及夏普比率,并以這三項(xiàng)指標(biāo)為主要依據(jù)對(duì)股票定投及基金定投進(jìn)行橫向比較,最終得出結(jié)論:股票定投優(yōu)于基金定投。這在目前我國(guó)股票定投的投資規(guī)模幾乎為零的背景下,有很強(qiáng)的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義和經(jīng)濟(jì)效應(yīng)。 本文比較了在股票市場(chǎng)處于上升期、下跌期、震蕩期進(jìn)行股票定投和基金定投之間的收益與風(fēng)險(xiǎn),初步探討了產(chǎn)生差異的原因;計(jì)算了針對(duì)行業(yè)龍頭、針對(duì)成長(zhǎng)類公司、針對(duì)消費(fèi)類公司三種股票定投策略在同一市場(chǎng)周期內(nèi)所能獲取的收益,分析了單位風(fēng)險(xiǎn)對(duì)應(yīng)的收益大小,比較了三種股票定投策略的差別,并最終得出結(jié)論:最佳的股票定投策略是長(zhǎng)期定投于具備明顯品牌優(yōu)勢(shì)的消費(fèi)類龍頭公司。
[Abstract]:At this stage, the ordinary Chinese people's investment channels are relatively scarce: investing in stocks, the risk of funds is greater, and it is difficult to maintain and increase the value of assets by bank time deposits. Term investment is a better investment method suitable for the ordinary working class, and it has developed to a considerable scale in our country at present. This paper compares stock fixed investment with fund fixed investment to try to compare which way is better between fund fixed investment and stock fixed investment and whether stock fixed investment can replace fund fixed investment. In this paper, the formula of fixed deposit, fixed fund and stock fixed return is derived by the method of cost analysis. Based on the existing data, 30 stocks are simulated in the ten years from 2003 to 2013. And has carried on the detailed measurement to the income and the risk. The return rate of investment, standard deviation and Sharpe ratio obtained from the implementation of these three types of investment in the 10-year period are calculated, and the horizontal comparison between stock fixed investment and fund fixed investment is made on the basis of these three indicators. Finally come to the conclusion: the stock fixed investment is better than the fund fixed investment. This has very strong practical significance and economic effect under the background that the investment scale of stock fixed investment in our country is almost zero at present. This paper compares the income and risk between fixed investment and fixed investment in stock market during the period of rising, falling and fluctuating, and discusses the reasons for the difference, calculates the industry leader, and aims at the growth company. Aiming at the return of three stock fixed investment strategies in consumption companies in the same market cycle, this paper analyzes the corresponding return of unit risk, and compares the differences of three stock fixed investment strategies. Finally, the conclusion is drawn that the best strategy is to invest in consumer leading companies with obvious brand advantages for a long time.
【學(xué)位授予單位】:湖南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】:碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】:2014
【分類號(hào)】:F832.51

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