【摘要】：中小企業(yè)是我國國民經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的重要支柱,是吸納廣大就業(yè)人員的主力軍。在我國改革開放幾十年的進(jìn)程中,中小企業(yè)發(fā)揮了不可或缺的推動作用,是大型企業(yè)的重要伙伴和助手。隨著我國經(jīng)濟(jì)市場化進(jìn)程不斷深入,中小企業(yè)面臨著人民幣升值,勞動力及原材料成本不斷攀升等挑戰(zhàn),尤其是自2013年開始,我國實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展形勢嚴(yán)峻,經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展速度減緩,在這種背景下,中小企業(yè)面臨著較大的生存壓力,長期依賴的“低成本驅(qū)動”需要向創(chuàng)新驅(qū)動轉(zhuǎn)型,而轉(zhuǎn)型的最大困難在于企業(yè)融資。 我國商業(yè)銀行承擔(dān)著為客戶尤其是中小企業(yè)客戶提供多種金融服務(wù)的重要功能。商業(yè)銀行需要結(jié)合自身優(yōu)勢,逐漸開展制定中小企業(yè)的信用等級評估體系,以及出臺相應(yīng)的擔(dān)保機(jī)制,規(guī)劃良好的信用環(huán)境和信用關(guān)系。中小企業(yè)本身需要從更多的層面加強(qiáng)其經(jīng)營管理水平、豐富資本結(jié)構(gòu)、構(gòu)建健全的財(cái)務(wù)制度,穩(wěn)步提升經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)力以及抗市場風(fēng)險(xiǎn)能力。從國家層面上,中小企業(yè)現(xiàn)在以及在今后較長時(shí)期對我國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長發(fā)揮不可替代的作用,因此為中小企業(yè)的金融服務(wù)需要進(jìn)行實(shí)質(zhì)性的更多改變,以更加適應(yīng)我國市場經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展。 本文主要以我國商業(yè)銀行對中小企業(yè)信貸的經(jīng)營現(xiàn)狀、綜述和理論為基礎(chǔ),對150家中小企業(yè)樣本的信貸風(fēng)險(xiǎn)特征進(jìn)行識別,進(jìn)而總結(jié)出商業(yè)銀行對中小企業(yè)貸款的難點(diǎn)所在。運(yùn)用統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)中的Logistic回歸分析的方法判斷中小企業(yè)貸款發(fā)生違約的概率,并提出建設(shè)性的指導(dǎo)策略。本文的主要創(chuàng)新是運(yùn)用Logistic模型對商業(yè)銀行向中小企業(yè)貸款時(shí)是否具有違約風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行定量分析。在國內(nèi)外相關(guān)理論的基礎(chǔ)上,本文通過實(shí)證分析為商業(yè)銀行提供具有可操作性的實(shí)施方案。
[Abstract]:Small and medium enterprises are the main pillar of our national economic development and the main force to absorb the large number of employees. In the process of China's reform and opening up for several decades, small and medium-sized enterprises have played an indispensable role and are important partners and assistants of large enterprises. With the continuous deepening of the process of economic market development in China, small and medium-sized enterprises are facing people. Since 2013, the development of the real economy and the speed of economic development have slowed down. In this context, small and medium-sized enterprises are facing greater pressure of survival, and the long-term dependence on "low cost drive" needs to be driven by innovation driven, and the greatest difficulty in transformation. It's hard for enterprises to finance.
Commercial banks in China undertake the important functions of providing various financial services for customers, especially small and medium-sized enterprises. Commercial banks need to combine their own advantages, gradually develop a credit rating system for small and medium-sized enterprises, and introduce a corresponding guarantee mechanism to plan a good credit environment and credit relationship. From more level, we should strengthen its management level, enrich the capital structure, build a sound financial system, and steadily improve the economic strength and the ability to resist market risk. From the national level, small and medium-sized enterprises now play an alternative role to our country's economic growth for a long time in the future, so it is necessary for the financial services of small and medium-sized enterprises. More substantial changes should be made in order to better adapt to the development of China's market economy.
This paper, based on the current situation of the credit management of small and medium enterprises in China's commercial banks, identifies the credit risk characteristics of the samples of 150 small and medium-sized enterprises, and then summarizes the difficulties of the commercial banks' loans to small and medium-sized enterprises. The Logistic regression analysis of statistics is used to judge the loan development of small and medium-sized enterprises. The main innovation of this paper is to make a quantitative analysis of whether the commercial banks have the risk of default when they loan to small and medium enterprises by using the Logistic model. On the basis of relevant theories at home and abroad, this paper provides an operable implementation scheme for commercial banks through empirical analysis.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：山東大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F276.3;F832.4

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