本文關(guān)鍵詞：供給側(cè)改革下煤炭企業(yè)債券信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)研究　出處：《貴州財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 供給側(cè)改革 煤炭行業(yè) 信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn) 投資策略

【摘要】：供給側(cè)改革側(cè)重于過剩產(chǎn)能行業(yè)的去產(chǎn)能,主要針對供需嚴(yán)重不平衡、盈利困難及負(fù)債過高的行業(yè),煤炭行業(yè)由于受宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)及自身產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)不平衡的影響,出現(xiàn)大面積虧損,從而是供給側(cè)改革的重點(diǎn)行業(yè)。近年來由于宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)增速放緩,煤炭下游需求疲弱;同時(shí),前期建設(shè)產(chǎn)能持續(xù)釋放,導(dǎo)致煤炭行業(yè)供給過剩,國內(nèi)煤炭企業(yè)盈利能力大幅下滑,行業(yè)虧損面擴(kuò)大,經(jīng)營能力弱化,經(jīng)營和財(cái)務(wù)壓力持續(xù)增大,煤炭行業(yè)整體信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)加大,信用質(zhì)量分化加劇。個(gè)別經(jīng)營嚴(yán)重虧損、財(cái)務(wù)杠桿高、流動性枯竭的煤炭企業(yè)甚至將面臨違約風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。供給側(cè)改革的持續(xù)推進(jìn)有利于煤炭行業(yè)減少無效產(chǎn)能,增加有效供給,實(shí)現(xiàn)煤炭行業(yè)中的供需平衡,促進(jìn)煤炭行業(yè)的健康發(fā)展,但國家去產(chǎn)能政策的實(shí)施也會在一定程度上加劇煤炭企業(yè)的競爭和洗牌,推動煤炭行業(yè)集中度的提升。2014年以來,多家煤炭企業(yè)債券發(fā)行人信用等級出現(xiàn)下調(diào),且級別下調(diào)的發(fā)行人開始以AAA級、AA+級等原主體級別較高的煤炭企業(yè)為主,中煤華昱、川煤集團(tuán)甚至出現(xiàn)債券違約,煤炭行業(yè)整體信用質(zhì)量明顯下滑;與其他行業(yè)相比,煤炭行業(yè)整體發(fā)行利率較高,發(fā)行利差較大,不同信用等級甚至同等級的發(fā)行人利差分化也較為明顯,這一定程度上也給投資煤炭企業(yè)債券帶來比較好的機(jī)會。本文以供給側(cè)改革為背景,首先對煤炭企業(yè)債券發(fā)行主體以及債券市場信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的變化進(jìn)行了定性與定量相結(jié)合的分析;在此基礎(chǔ)上,以債券違約主體中煤華昱和川煤集團(tuán)為案例進(jìn)行了比較分析,總結(jié)出資產(chǎn)負(fù)債率、流動負(fù)債/總負(fù)債、凈資產(chǎn)收益率、利潤總額同比增長率、EBITDA利息保障倍數(shù)、經(jīng)營現(xiàn)金流凈額、經(jīng)營現(xiàn)金凈流量/流動債務(wù)、三大費(fèi)用占營業(yè)收入的比重以及信用主體的變動這九個(gè)分析指標(biāo)可以反映煤炭企業(yè)債券信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)狀況,并根據(jù)案例分析的結(jié)論進(jìn)一步探究了煤炭企業(yè)債券投資的相關(guān)策略;最后對煤炭行業(yè)未來的發(fā)展以及煤炭行業(yè)債券的信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行了總結(jié)和展望。
[Abstract]:The supply-side reform focuses on the deproduction capacity of excess capacity industries, mainly aimed at those industries with serious imbalance of supply and demand, difficult profitability and excessive debt. The coal industry is affected by the imbalance of macro-economy and its own industrial structure. Large area loss, which is the key industry of supply-side reform. In recent years, due to the slowdown in macroeconomic growth, coal downstream demand is weak; At the same time, the sustained release of pre-construction capacity, resulting in excess supply of the coal industry, domestic coal enterprises significantly decline in profitability, industry losses expanded, business capacity weakening, operating and financial pressure continues to increase. Coal industry as a whole credit risk increased, credit quality differentiation intensified, individual management serious losses, financial leverage is high. Coal enterprises with exhausted liquidity will even face the risk of default. The continuous promotion of supply-side reform will help the coal industry reduce ineffective production capacity, increase effective supply, and achieve the balance between supply and demand in the coal industry. Promote the healthy development of the coal industry, but the implementation of the national production policy will to some extent intensify the competition and reshuffle of coal enterprises, promote the coal industry concentration. Since 2014. A number of coal enterprise bond issuer credit rating has been downgraded, and the downgrade of the issuer began to AAA and AA grade of the main body of the higher level of coal enterprises, coal Huayu. Sichuan Coal Group even defaulted on bonds, the overall credit quality of the coal industry declined significantly; Compared with other industries, the coal industry as a whole has a higher interest rate, a large margin of issue interest, different credit grades and even the same grade of the issuer spread differentiation is more obvious. To a certain extent, it also brings a better opportunity to invest in the bonds of coal enterprises. This paper takes supply-side reform as the background. First of all, the qualitative and quantitative analysis of the change of credit risk in the bond market and the main body of bond issuance in coal enterprises is carried out. On this basis, the paper makes a comparative analysis on the main body of bond default, China Sunlight Coal and Sichuan Coal Group, and sums up the ratio of assets and liabilities, current liabilities / total liabilities, net asset return, and total profit growth rate. EBITDA interest guarantee multiple, net operating cash flow, net operating cash flow / current debt. The three major expenses account for the proportion of operating income and the change of credit main body these nine analysis indicators can reflect the credit risk situation of coal enterprise bond. According to the conclusion of the case study, the paper further explores the relevant strategies of bond investment in coal enterprises; Finally, the future development of coal industry and the credit risk of coal industry bond are summarized and prospected.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：貴州財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F426.21;F832.51

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