本文關(guān)鍵詞：中國(guó)短期國(guó)際資本流動(dòng)的影響因素及風(fēng)險(xiǎn)控制　出處：《山西財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 短期國(guó)際資本流動(dòng) 國(guó)際收支賬戶 利率 匯率 資本管制

【摘要】：2008年美國(guó)次貸危機(jī)爆發(fā)，使全球經(jīng)濟(jì)陷入萎靡，2011年歐洲主權(quán)債務(wù)危機(jī)的全面升級(jí)又使全球金融局勢(shì)變得更加復(fù)雜和不穩(wěn)定，全球經(jīng)濟(jì)正步履蹣跚的前行，國(guó)際間資本波動(dòng)更加頻繁和難以預(yù)測(cè)。我國(guó)在2005年匯改后，實(shí)行有管理的浮動(dòng)匯率制，資本市場(chǎng)逐漸開放，資本管制逐漸放松，為國(guó)際資本的流入提供了良好的市場(chǎng)基礎(chǔ)。短期國(guó)際資本流入為我國(guó)金融市場(chǎng)注入活力，也加快了我國(guó)資本市場(chǎng)開放進(jìn)程。但是，近年來隨著人民幣升值壓力的持續(xù)攀升和資產(chǎn)價(jià)格的不斷上漲，越來越多的資本基于“套匯”“套利”的動(dòng)機(jī)流入我國(guó)，我國(guó)國(guó)際資本流動(dòng)的規(guī)模急劇擴(kuò)大，特別是面臨短期國(guó)際資本大規(guī)模流入和逆轉(zhuǎn)帶來的影響沖擊。短期國(guó)際資本流動(dòng)問題已引起理論界的多方關(guān)注。 本文闡述了短期國(guó)際資本流動(dòng)的涵義及經(jīng)典動(dòng)因理論，包括利率決定論、匯率決定論、資產(chǎn)組合論和交易成本論。分別描述了全球資本流動(dòng)現(xiàn)狀和中國(guó)資本流動(dòng)現(xiàn)狀及特點(diǎn)，，總結(jié)了短期國(guó)際資本在我國(guó)的幾種流動(dòng)渠道，包括經(jīng)常賬戶下和資本賬戶下的正常流動(dòng)渠道及“地下錢莊”“貨幣走私”等非法的隱蔽性流動(dòng)渠道。在此基礎(chǔ)上用直接法和間接法對(duì)流入我國(guó)短期資本進(jìn)行估算。分析得出當(dāng)前短期國(guó)際資本流動(dòng)的新特點(diǎn)和發(fā)展趨勢(shì)，并運(yùn)用短期資本流動(dòng)的動(dòng)因理論，結(jié)合中國(guó)的實(shí)際經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)分析了影響我國(guó)短期國(guó)際資本流動(dòng)的因素有利率差、匯率差、證券市場(chǎng)價(jià)格及投資者的投資信心。其中利率差和投資者信心兩項(xiàng)因素影響顯著，其他因素與短期國(guó)際資本流動(dòng)的相關(guān)性比較復(fù)雜。本文采用了實(shí)證建模的方法使研究更具有說服力。系統(tǒng)的分析了短期國(guó)際資本流動(dòng)給中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)帶來的影響，最后提出了中國(guó)對(duì)短期國(guó)際資本流動(dòng)進(jìn)行管制的政策建議，包括對(duì)資本賬戶開放的管制，對(duì)匯率的管制及化短期國(guó)際資本為長(zhǎng)期資本等對(duì)策建議。這些建議將對(duì)我國(guó)管理國(guó)際資本流動(dòng)具有重要借鑒意義。
[Abstract]:In 2008, the subprime mortgage crisis broke out in the United States, which brought the global economy into a slump. In 2011, the overall escalation of the European sovereign debt crisis made the global financial situation more complex and unstable. The global economy is stumbling forward, the international capital fluctuation is more frequent and unpredictable. After 2005, our country implemented the managed floating exchange rate system, the capital market gradually opened up. Capital control is loosening gradually, which provides a good market basis for the inflow of international capital. Short-term international capital inflow injects vitality into our financial market and speeds up the process of opening our country's capital market. In recent years, with the rising pressure of RMB appreciation and the rising of asset price, more and more capital flows into our country based on the motive of arbitrage and arbitrage, and the scale of international capital flow expands rapidly. Especially in the face of the impact of the large-scale inflow and reversal of short-term international capital, the short-term international capital flow has attracted the attention of many theorists. This paper expounds the meaning of short-term international capital flow and classical motivation theory, including interest rate determinism, exchange rate determinism. Portfolio theory and transaction cost theory. This paper describes the current situation of global capital flows and the current situation and characteristics of Chinese capital flows, and summarizes several short-term international capital flow channels in China. Including normal channels of movement under the current account and the capital account and "underground banks" and "money smuggling" On the basis of this, direct and indirect methods are used to estimate the inflow of short-term capital into China. The new characteristics and development trend of current short-term international capital flow are analyzed. Using the theory of the motivation of short-term capital flow, combined with the actual economic situation of China, this paper analyzes the factors that affect the short-term international capital flow of our country, such as interest rate difference and exchange rate difference. The stock market price and investor's investment confidence, among them interest rate difference and investor confidence two factors influence significantly. The correlation between other factors and short-term international capital flows is complex. This paper uses empirical modeling method to make the research more persuasive, and systematically analyzes the impact of short-term international capital flows on the Chinese economy. Finally, the paper puts forward some policy suggestions on the control of short-term international capital flows, including the control of opening the capital account. The countermeasures such as the control of exchange rate and the conversion of short-term international capital into long-term capital will be of great significance to China's management of international capital flows.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：山西財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F832.51

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