本文關(guān)鍵詞：上市公司管理者過度自信對現(xiàn)金股利分配影響的實證研究　出處：《杭州電子科技大學》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

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【摘要】：股利政策是公司財務(wù)中的重要部分，合理的股利政策能夠激發(fā)投資者的積極性，，實現(xiàn)公司價值最大化。我國的資本市場還有待完善，上市公司的股利分配行為存在很多不合理的地方。傳統(tǒng)股利理論無法合理解釋股利分配行為中存在的不正�，F(xiàn)象，從不同的視角來研究股利分配政策是未來的研究方向。心理學研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，人普遍存在認知偏差,這些偏差會明顯影響到公司財務(wù)活動。學者們在股利政策研究中考慮了認知偏差：從行為金融視角來解釋股利分配。過度自信是“心理學中最穩(wěn)定的發(fā)現(xiàn)”，我國上市公司管理者在決策中容易滋生過度自信的心理特征，導致管理者決策不理性，進而對公司正常經(jīng)營產(chǎn)生影響。 本文回顧了國內(nèi)外過度自信對股利分配影響的相關(guān)研究文獻發(fā)現(xiàn)，有的實證檢驗結(jié)果是正相關(guān)，而有的結(jié)果卻是負相關(guān)，研究結(jié)論不一致。在相關(guān)理論基礎(chǔ)上，分析管理者過度自信對股利分配的影響作用。然后以滬深兩市2010-2012年的A股上市公司作為研究樣本，采用盈余預(yù)測偏差方式衡量管理者過度自信，選取了不同偏差幅度下的4個指標，結(jié)合控制變量每股收益，每股經(jīng)營現(xiàn)金凈流量，資產(chǎn)負債率，公司規(guī)模，成長性和年度行業(yè)變量，從現(xiàn)金股利分配意愿和現(xiàn)金股利分配率兩方面進行實證檢驗。并采用高管薪酬相對比和高管持股是否變化指標衡量管理者過度自信，進行穩(wěn)健性檢驗。 研究得出結(jié)論：管理者過度自信公司的現(xiàn)金股利分配意愿較低；管理者過度自信公司的現(xiàn)金股利分配率究竟是較高還是較低不確定。這對我國上市公司現(xiàn)金股利分配的規(guī)范、上市公司質(zhì)量的提高，我國股票市場健康穩(wěn)定的發(fā)展有一定的理論和實際意義。
[Abstract]:Dividend policy is an important part of corporate finance. Reasonable dividend policy can stimulate the enthusiasm of investors and realize the maximization of corporate value. China's capital market needs to be improved. There are many unreasonable places in dividend distribution behavior of listed companies. Traditional dividend theory can not explain the abnormal phenomenon in dividend distribution behavior. To study dividend distribution policy from different perspectives is the future research direction. Psychological research found that cognitive bias is common in people. These deviations will obviously affect corporate financial activities. Scholars have considered cognitive bias in dividend policy research: explain dividend distribution from the perspective of behavioral finance. Overconfidence is "the most stable finding in psychology". It is easy to breed the psychological characteristics of overconfidence in the decision-making of the managers of listed companies in our country, which leads to irrationality of the managers' decisions, and then has an impact on the normal management of the companies. This paper reviews the influence of overconfidence on dividend distribution at home and abroad and finds that some empirical results are positive correlation and some results are negative. On the basis of relevant theories, this paper analyzes the effect of managers' overconfidence on dividend distribution. Then the A-share listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets from 2010 to 2012 are taken as the research samples. Using earnings forecast deviation method to measure managers' overconfidence, 4 indexes under different deviation range are selected, combined with control variable earnings per share, net operating cash flow per share, asset-liability ratio, company size. Growth and annual industry variables, from the cash dividend distribution willingness and cash dividend distribution rate two aspects of the empirical test, and the use of executive compensation to compare and whether the change of executive shareholding indicators to measure managers overconfidence. The robustness test is carried out. The conclusion of the study is: managers overconfident companies have low willingness to distribute cash dividends; It is uncertain whether the distribution rate of cash dividend of overconfident companies is higher or lower. This will improve the quality of listed companies and standardize the distribution of cash dividends of listed companies in China. The healthy and stable development of China's stock market has certain theoretical and practical significance.
【學位授予單位】：杭州電子科技大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F832.51;F272.91;F275

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