【摘要】：全球氣候變化對于人類生態(tài)環(huán)境造成了嚴(yán)重的破壞，如何應(yīng)對氣候變化已經(jīng)成為當(dāng)今世界的重要議題。在影響氣候變化的諸多因素中，二氧化碳作為氣候變化的主要推手，受到世界的廣泛關(guān)注。我國作為最大的發(fā)展中國家，目前正處于快速發(fā)展階段，城市經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展與生態(tài)環(huán)境保護(hù)之間的矛盾日趨增加，而這一矛盾突出表現(xiàn)在城市交通與環(huán)境的問題上。隨著城市機(jī)動化的跨越式發(fā)展，城市交通的二氧化碳排放量呈直線上升的趨勢。城市交通的低碳化發(fā)展作為一項(xiàng)長期戰(zhàn)略，成為城市可持續(xù)發(fā)展的必然要求。其中，采取合理的政策措施是城市低碳交通發(fā)展的關(guān)鍵。論文以構(gòu)建科學(xué)、有效的城市低碳交通政策選擇方法體系為目標(biāo)，以期為城市低碳交通的發(fā)展決策提供科學(xué)指導(dǎo)。 城市低碳交通發(fā)展受社會經(jīng)濟(jì)、城市規(guī)模、居民生活水平、運(yùn)輸結(jié)構(gòu)、運(yùn)輸效率多種因素的影響，，碳排放量的大小涉及到交通運(yùn)輸?shù)母鱾�(gè)部門，城市低碳交通政策的研究就是準(zhǔn)確、全面地分析這些影響因素，通過選取合適的政策，使得這些政策作用于各個(gè)部門，從而實(shí)現(xiàn)城市交通的低碳化發(fā)展。論文對影響城市低碳交通發(fā)展的各種因素進(jìn)行了分析，基于LEAP模型理論，運(yùn)用情景分析、綜合集成賦權(quán)及聚類分析等方法，構(gòu)建了科學(xué)、有效的低碳政策選擇方法體系。首先，城市低碳交通的情景政策集合選擇是政策評價(jià)的前提和基礎(chǔ)。論文從以下兩方面進(jìn)行政策選擇：一方面，根據(jù)重要因素對政策選擇的影響，運(yùn)用主成分分析和灰色關(guān)聯(lián)分析集成賦權(quán)法，對城市低碳交通的影響因素進(jìn)行重要性評價(jià)，根據(jù)影響因子的重要程度進(jìn)行政策選擇；另一方面，根據(jù)相似城市的政策相似性，運(yùn)用聚類分析方法以及灰色系統(tǒng)理論，選擇相似先進(jìn)城市的政策經(jīng)驗(yàn)為參照樣本進(jìn)行政策選擇；然后，通過將重要性、相似性和先進(jìn)性所得的政策各選集進(jìn)行匯總得到情景政策集合。其次，對所選政策效果測度進(jìn)行計(jì)算，運(yùn)用LEAP模型的原理構(gòu)建碳排放測算模型，根據(jù)政策集合設(shè)定不同情景，分析比較各情景二氧化碳排放情況，確定最優(yōu)情景模式。最后，以西安為例進(jìn)行了實(shí)證分析，驗(yàn)證了政策選擇方法的科學(xué)性和有效性。論文研究成果能為城市低碳交通政策的中長期決策提供科學(xué)、客觀的理論依據(jù)。
[Abstract]:Global climate change has caused serious damage to human ecological environment, how to deal with climate change has become an important issue in today's world. Among the many factors affecting climate change, carbon dioxide, as the main driver of climate change, has been widely concerned by the world. As the largest developing country, China is in the stage of rapid development, and the contradiction between urban economic development and ecological environment protection is increasing day by day, and this contradiction is manifested in the problem of urban traffic and environment. With the leap-forward development of urban motorization, the carbon dioxide emissions of urban traffic show a straight upward trend. As a long-term strategy, the low-carbon development of urban traffic has become the inevitable requirement of urban sustainable development. Among them, taking reasonable policy measures is the key to the development of urban low-carbon transportation. The goal of this paper is to construct a scientific and effective system of urban low-carbon traffic policy selection, in order to provide scientific guidance for the development decision-making of urban low-carbon traffic. The development of urban low-carbon transportation is affected by many factors, such as social economy, urban scale, living standard of residents, transportation structure and transportation efficiency. The size of carbon emissions involves all sectors of transportation. The research of urban low-carbon traffic policy is to analyze these influencing factors accurately and comprehensively, and to make these policies act on various departments by selecting appropriate policies, so as to realize the low-carbon development of urban traffic. In this paper, various factors affecting the development of urban low-carbon traffic are analyzed. Based on LEAP model theory, a scientific and effective low-carbon policy selection method system is constructed by using situational analysis, integrated weighting and cluster analysis. First of all, the choice of scenario policy set of urban low-carbon traffic is the premise and basis of policy evaluation. This paper makes policy choices from the following two aspects: on the one hand, according to the influence of important factors on policy choice, principal component analysis and grey relational analysis integrated weighting method are used to evaluate the importance of the influencing factors of urban low-carbon traffic. The policy choice is carried out according to the importance of the influencing factors; On the other hand, according to the policy similarity of similar cities, the policy experience of similar advanced cities is selected as the reference sample by using cluster analysis method and grey system theory. Then, the situational policy set is obtained by summarizing the selected sets of policies derived from importance, similarity and advanced nature. Secondly, the selected policy effect measure is calculated, and the carbon emission measurement model is constructed by using the principle of LEAP model. According to the policy set, different scenarios are set up, the carbon dioxide emissions of each scenario are analyzed and compared, and the optimal scenario model is determined. Finally, taking Xi'an as an example, an empirical analysis is carried out to verify the scientific and effective policy choice method. The research results of this paper can provide scientific and objective theoretical basis for the medium and long term decision of urban low carbon traffic policy.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：長安大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：X322;F572

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