【摘要】：煤炭資源是我國國民經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的主要保障,其供求關(guān)系、運力變化是我國國內(nèi)煤炭海運市場發(fā)展趨勢的主要指標(biāo)。因此,研究國內(nèi)煤炭海運市場供需、運力供給對于從事煤炭海運運輸?shù)慕?jīng)營者及投資者把握市場動態(tài)、制定投資決策起到至關(guān)重要的作用。本文從定性的角度分析了我國國內(nèi)煤炭海運市場發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀,并使用定量方法對我國國內(nèi)煤炭海運市場的發(fā)展趨勢進(jìn)行了研究。主要包括以下幾個部分： 首先,從全球煤炭海運系統(tǒng)入手,對煤炭出口國、港口現(xiàn)狀和運力現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行了基本分析,從定性的角度研究了煤炭海運市場的發(fā)展?fàn)顩r,并對影響全球煤炭海運市場波動的主要因素進(jìn)行了簡單闡述。 其次,從煤炭運輸現(xiàn)狀、需求和供給情況分析了我國國內(nèi)煤炭海運市場發(fā)展?fàn)顩r。在對我國煤炭市場的生產(chǎn)、消費和運輸現(xiàn)狀分析的基礎(chǔ)上,詳細(xì)分析了我國煤炭海運市場的供給和需求關(guān)系、煤炭海運市場的運力現(xiàn)狀,總結(jié)歸納了我國國內(nèi)煤炭海運市場的基本特征和存在問題。 再次,從定性和定量的角度對我國國內(nèi)煤炭海運市場的未來發(fā)展進(jìn)行了研究,介紹了適用于我國國內(nèi)煤炭海運市場需求預(yù)測的灰色預(yù)測模型,并對模型的適用性進(jìn)行分析。將灰色預(yù)測模型應(yīng)用于我國國內(nèi)煤炭海運市場需求、船舶運力的預(yù)測,并對我國國內(nèi)煤炭海運市場運價走勢給出定性分析。 最后,針對我國煤炭海運市場存在的問題提出對策,總結(jié)本文研究的主要內(nèi)容,并指明了本文研究的不足之處和未來研究方向。
[Abstract]:Coal resource is the main guarantee for the development of our national economy. The relationship between supply and demand and the change of transportation capacity are the main indicators of the development trend of China's domestic coal seaborne market. Therefore, to study the supply and demand of domestic coal seaborne market, the supply of transport capacity plays an important role for the operators and investors engaged in coal seaborne transportation to grasp the market dynamics and make the investment decision-making. In this paper, the present situation of domestic coal seaborne market in China is analyzed qualitatively, and the development trend of domestic coal seaborne market in China is studied by using quantitative method. It mainly includes the following parts: first of all, starting with the global coal shipping system, this paper makes a basic analysis of the status quo of coal exporting countries, ports and transport capacity, and studies the development of coal seaborne market from a qualitative point of view. The main factors affecting the fluctuation of the global coal seaborne market are briefly described. Secondly, the development of domestic coal seaborne market is analyzed from the status quo of coal transportation, demand and supply. Based on the analysis of the present situation of production, consumption and transportation in China's coal market, this paper analyzes in detail the relationship between supply and demand of China's coal seaborne market, and the current situation of the transportation capacity of the coal seaborne market. This paper summarizes the basic characteristics and existing problems of China's domestic coal seaborne market. Thirdly, this paper studies the future development of domestic coal seaborne market in terms of qualitative and quantitative analysis, and introduces the grey forecasting model which is suitable for forecasting the demand of domestic coal seaborne market in China, and analyzes the applicability of the model. The grey forecasting model is applied to the demand of domestic coal seaborne market and the forecast of shipping capacity, and the qualitative analysis of the trend of domestic coal seaborne market price is given. Finally, in view of the problems existing in China's coal seaborne market, this paper puts forward countermeasures, summarizes the main contents of this study, and points out the shortcomings of this study and the future research direction.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：大連海事大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F426.21;F552;F224

【引證文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前1條

1 黃秋萍;我國電力煤炭沿海運輸系統(tǒng)帕累托改進(jìn)研究[D];大連海事大學(xué);2013年

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本文編號：2457084