【摘要】：隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長(zhǎng)和現(xiàn)代化物流的快速發(fā)展,高速公路在聯(lián)系國(guó)家各地區(qū)間的重要作用得到顯現(xiàn)。對(duì)于江西省來(lái)說(shuō),高速公路對(duì)其實(shí)現(xiàn)在中部的崛起有著舉足輕重的作用,高速公路加快了江西對(duì)外開放的步伐,為江西的發(fā)展提供了諸多便利條件,使江西與長(zhǎng)三角、珠三角等發(fā)達(dá)地區(qū)的聯(lián)系更加緊密。 TD公司是江西省多個(gè)高速公路項(xiàng)目的業(yè)主單位,主要承建省內(nèi)外重要基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施的建設(shè)。JL高速公路項(xiàng)目是TD公司承建的項(xiàng)目之一,由于高速公路項(xiàng)目具有規(guī)模大、戰(zhàn)線長(zhǎng)、周期長(zhǎng),生產(chǎn)單一性、復(fù)雜性等特點(diǎn),因而在項(xiàng)目的融資、建設(shè)與運(yùn)營(yíng)中具有較多的不確定性,如何對(duì)項(xiàng)目中的不確定因素進(jìn)行有效控制是TD公司需要加強(qiáng)管理的地方。 本文通過(guò)對(duì)TD公司JL高速公路項(xiàng)目的概況進(jìn)行分析,運(yùn)用定性和定量的分析技術(shù)(德爾菲法、專家法打分法、層次分析法)對(duì)該項(xiàng)目進(jìn)行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識(shí)別、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析,并在此基礎(chǔ)上提出項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的應(yīng)對(duì)措施,以期找出項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的根源、規(guī)避方法和手段,為江西TD公司加強(qiáng)高速公路項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理提供思路。本文的主要內(nèi)容是： 第一章,緒論。介紹選題背景及意義,通過(guò)閱讀國(guó)內(nèi)外研究文獻(xiàn),提出本文的研究方向,并闡述本文的研究?jī)?nèi)容、方法； 第二章,相關(guān)理論概述。介紹了風(fēng)險(xiǎn)及風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的概念,總結(jié)了風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的主要內(nèi)容,包括風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識(shí)別、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)； 第三章,江西TD公司JL高速公路項(xiàng)目概況。本章對(duì)江西TD公司JL高速公路項(xiàng)目的投資、收入及成本進(jìn)行了預(yù)測(cè),并對(duì)項(xiàng)目的經(jīng)濟(jì)性進(jìn)行了評(píng)價(jià)； 第四章,江西TD公司高速公路項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析。通過(guò)德爾菲法進(jìn)行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識(shí)別,并確定風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系,運(yùn)用層次分析法進(jìn)行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià),并在此基礎(chǔ)上提出風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)措施； 第五章,針對(duì)江西TD公司的現(xiàn)狀,提出加強(qiáng)江西TD公司高速公路項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的建議； 第六章,總結(jié)與展望。總結(jié)本文的研究成果,提出文章的進(jìn)一步研究方向。
[Abstract]:With the growth of economy and the rapid development of modern logistics, the important role of expressway in connecting various regions of the country has been shown. For Jiangxi Province, the expressway plays an important role in the rise of the central part of Jiangxi Province. The expressway quickens the pace of Jiangxi's opening up to the outside world, provides many convenient conditions for Jiangxi's development, and makes Jiangxi and the Yangtze River Delta. The Pearl River Delta and other developed areas are more closely linked. TD Company is the owner of many highway projects in Jiangxi Province, mainly responsible for the construction of important infrastructure inside and outside the province. JL Expressway Project is one of the projects undertaken by TD Company, because the highway project has a large scale and a long front. Because of the characteristics of long cycle, single production and complexity, there are more uncertainties in the financing, construction and operation of the project. How to control the uncertain factors in the project effectively is the place where TD Company needs to strengthen its management. By analyzing the general situation of JL highway project of TD Company, this paper makes use of qualitative and quantitative analysis techniques (Delphi method, expert scoring method, analytic hierarchy process) to carry out risk identification, risk assessment and risk analysis of the project. On this basis, the countermeasures of project risk are put forward in order to find out the root of the project risk, to avoid the methods and means, and to provide ideas for Jiangxi TD Company to strengthen the project risk management of expressway projects. The main content of this paper is: chapter one, introduction. This paper introduces the background and significance of the topic, and through reading the domestic and foreign research literature, puts forward the research direction of this paper, and expounds the research contents and methods of this paper. Chapter two, the summary of related theories. This paper introduces the concept of risk and risk management, and summarizes the main contents of risk management, including risk identification, risk assessment and risk response. Chapter three, the overview of JL highway project of Jiangxi TD Company. In this chapter, the investment, income and cost of JL highway project of Jiangxi TD Company are forecasted, and the economy of the project is evaluated. The fourth chapter is the risk analysis of the expressway project of Jiangxi TD Company. Through Delphi method for risk identification, and determine the risk evaluation index system, using analytic hierarchy process (AHP) for risk assessment, and on the basis of this proposed risk response measures; The fifth chapter, aiming at the present situation of Jiangxi TD Company, puts forward some suggestions to strengthen the risk management of Jiangxi TD Company's expressway project, and the sixth chapter summarizes and looks forward to it. Summarize the research results of this paper, put forward the further research direction of the article.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南昌大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號(hào)】：F542

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