【摘要】：航運(yùn)業(yè)一直就是一個(gè)高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)低收益的行業(yè)，所以近年來隨著全球經(jīng)濟(jì)的不斷變化，中國(guó)航運(yùn)業(yè)的發(fā)展也可謂一波三折。航運(yùn)從業(yè)者在歷經(jīng)了百年不遇的航運(yùn)大好形勢(shì)之后，即海運(yùn)費(fèi)從2003年到2008年第三季度增長(zhǎng)了近300%，很快地又歷經(jīng)了2008年年底的一場(chǎng)席卷全球的金融危機(jī)，這場(chǎng)金融危機(jī)給整個(gè)航運(yùn)市場(chǎng)帶來了重創(chuàng)。在面對(duì)如此之大的全球性系統(tǒng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)之后，再加之一些航運(yùn)公司由于經(jīng)營(yíng)不善，，最終沒能逃脫破產(chǎn)清算的厄運(yùn)。 航運(yùn)從業(yè)者在親身經(jīng)歷了這樣的事件之后，更加清晰地認(rèn)識(shí)到了運(yùn)價(jià)的巨大波動(dòng)是整個(gè)業(yè)內(nèi)企業(yè)經(jīng)營(yíng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的集中體現(xiàn)。近幾年來，隨著航運(yùn)衍生品的不斷發(fā)展，航運(yùn)從業(yè)者可以有更多的選擇進(jìn)行企業(yè)經(jīng)營(yíng)中的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理，即恰當(dāng)?shù)剡\(yùn)用航運(yùn)衍生品來進(jìn)行運(yùn)費(fèi)的套期保值交易，提前鎖定利潤(rùn)或成本，起到了風(fēng)險(xiǎn)防范的作用。 本文簡(jiǎn)要介紹了目前市場(chǎng)上的航運(yùn)衍生品的種類及其應(yīng)用現(xiàn)狀，進(jìn)一步討論了航運(yùn)企業(yè)如何運(yùn)用遠(yuǎn)期運(yùn)費(fèi)協(xié)議(FFA)、運(yùn)費(fèi)期權(quán)交易、集裝箱掉期協(xié)議(CFSA)以及沿海煤炭運(yùn)價(jià)衍生品交易進(jìn)行運(yùn)費(fèi)的套期保值的原理和案例，最后對(duì)上海出口集裝箱運(yùn)價(jià)指數(shù)的趨勢(shì)進(jìn)行了回歸擬合預(yù)測(cè)并且對(duì)于此指數(shù)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行了實(shí)證分析和計(jì)算。 本文的創(chuàng)新之處在于對(duì)于新版的上海出口集裝箱運(yùn)價(jià)指數(shù)進(jìn)行了趨勢(shì)預(yù)測(cè)和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的量化測(cè)量。所以本文的研究為航運(yùn)企業(yè)的集裝箱運(yùn)輸風(fēng)險(xiǎn)規(guī)避提供了一定的參考價(jià)值。
[Abstract]:Shipping industry has always been a high-risk and low-income industry, so in recent years, with the continuous changes of the global economy, the development of China's shipping industry can be described as a series of twists and turns. After the excellent situation of shipping industry, which has never been seen in a hundred years, that is, sea freight increased by nearly 300 from 2003 to the third quarter of 2008, and soon after another financial crisis sweeping the world at the end of 2008, The financial crisis has hit the entire shipping market hard. Faced with such a large global systemic risk, combined with poor management, some shipping companies failed to escape the doom of bankruptcy and liquidation. After experiencing this kind of event, the shipping practitioners have realized clearly that the huge fluctuation of the freight rate is the concentrated embodiment of the whole enterprise's management risk. In recent years, with the continuous development of shipping derivatives, shipping practitioners can have more choices to carry out risk management in enterprise management, that is, shipping derivatives are properly used to carry out freight hedging transactions. Lock in profit or cost ahead of time, played the role of risk prevention. This paper briefly introduces the types and application status of shipping derivatives in the market at present, and further discusses how shipping enterprises use forward freight agreement (FFA), freight option trading. Container swap Agreement (CFSA) and the principles and cases of freight hedging in coastal coal freight derivatives, Finally, the trend of Shanghai export container price index is predicted by regression fitting, and the risk of this index is analyzed and calculated empirically. The innovation of this paper lies in the trend prediction and quantitative risk measurement of the new Shanghai Export Container Freight Index. Therefore, the study of this paper provides a certain reference value for shipping enterprises to avoid container transport risks.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：上海大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F552.5

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