【摘要】：航運業(yè)一直就是一個高風險低收益的行業(yè)，所以近年來隨著全球經(jīng)濟的不斷變化，中國航運業(yè)的發(fā)展也可謂一波三折。航運從業(yè)者在歷經(jīng)了百年不遇的航運大好形勢之后，即海運費從2003年到2008年第三季度增長了近300%，很快地又歷經(jīng)了2008年年底的一場席卷全球的金融危機，這場金融危機給整個航運市場帶來了重創(chuàng)。在面對如此之大的全球性系統(tǒng)風險之后，再加之一些航運公司由于經(jīng)營不善，，最終沒能逃脫破產(chǎn)清算的厄運。 航運從業(yè)者在親身經(jīng)歷了這樣的事件之后，更加清晰地認識到了運價的巨大波動是整個業(yè)內(nèi)企業(yè)經(jīng)營風險的集中體現(xiàn)。近幾年來，隨著航運衍生品的不斷發(fā)展，航運從業(yè)者可以有更多的選擇進行企業(yè)經(jīng)營中的風險管理，即恰當?shù)剡\用航運衍生品來進行運費的套期保值交易，提前鎖定利潤或成本，起到了風險防范的作用。 本文簡要介紹了目前市場上的航運衍生品的種類及其應用現(xiàn)狀，進一步討論了航運企業(yè)如何運用遠期運費協(xié)議(FFA)、運費期權交易、集裝箱掉期協(xié)議(CFSA)以及沿海煤炭運價衍生品交易進行運費的套期保值的原理和案例，最后對上海出口集裝箱運價指數(shù)的趨勢進行了回歸擬合預測并且對于此指數(shù)的風險進行了實證分析和計算。 本文的創(chuàng)新之處在于對于新版的上海出口集裝箱運價指數(shù)進行了趨勢預測和風險的量化測量。所以本文的研究為航運企業(yè)的集裝箱運輸風險規(guī)避提供了一定的參考價值。
[Abstract]:Shipping industry has always been a high-risk and low-income industry, so in recent years, with the continuous changes of the global economy, the development of China's shipping industry can be described as a series of twists and turns. After the excellent situation of shipping industry, which has never been seen in a hundred years, that is, sea freight increased by nearly 300 from 2003 to the third quarter of 2008, and soon after another financial crisis sweeping the world at the end of 2008, The financial crisis has hit the entire shipping market hard. Faced with such a large global systemic risk, combined with poor management, some shipping companies failed to escape the doom of bankruptcy and liquidation. After experiencing this kind of event, the shipping practitioners have realized clearly that the huge fluctuation of the freight rate is the concentrated embodiment of the whole enterprise's management risk. In recent years, with the continuous development of shipping derivatives, shipping practitioners can have more choices to carry out risk management in enterprise management, that is, shipping derivatives are properly used to carry out freight hedging transactions. Lock in profit or cost ahead of time, played the role of risk prevention. This paper briefly introduces the types and application status of shipping derivatives in the market at present, and further discusses how shipping enterprises use forward freight agreement (FFA), freight option trading. Container swap Agreement (CFSA) and the principles and cases of freight hedging in coastal coal freight derivatives, Finally, the trend of Shanghai export container price index is predicted by regression fitting, and the risk of this index is analyzed and calculated empirically. The innovation of this paper lies in the trend prediction and quantitative risk measurement of the new Shanghai Export Container Freight Index. Therefore, the study of this paper provides a certain reference value for shipping enterprises to avoid container transport risks.
【學位授予單位】：上海大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F552.5

【參考文獻】

相關期刊論文 前10條

1 孫璐清;朱意秋;;我國企業(yè)參與運費衍生品市場的現(xiàn)狀及成因[J];重慶交通大學學報(社會科學版);2010年03期

2 宋錦智;VAR值的三種估算方法及其比較[J];城市金融論壇;2000年12期

3 張丹,莊新路;VaR原理及其在風險管理中的應用[J];東北大學學報(社會科學版);2004年03期

4 鄭文通;金融風險管理的VAR方法及其應用[J];國際金融研究;1997年09期

5 劉東榮;;航運市場風險規(guī)避——期權定價及其應用[J];港口經(jīng)濟;2008年10期

6 耿曉燕;馬雨菡;張杰;;淺析基差對套期保值效果的影響[J];經(jīng)營管理者;2010年22期

7 陳小龍;郭瑞峰;牛文彬;;海運運費衍生品市場發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀與展望[J];世界海運;2008年01期

8 趙峰;;試析海運企業(yè)的信用風險管理[J];交通財會;2007年02期

9 曾秋根;;航運公司運費風險管理存在的問題分析[J];交通財會;2009年04期

10 高健智;淺析航運企業(yè)主要經(jīng)營風險及防范[J];交通企業(yè)管理;2000年07期

本文編號：2428623