【摘要】：我國(guó)航班延誤問(wèn)題日益突出,從民航運(yùn)行實(shí)際來(lái)看,一架航空器連續(xù)執(zhí)行多個(gè)航班任務(wù),航班計(jì)劃安排緊密,不僅在航班運(yùn)行的初始階段可能由于不確定性因素的存在而產(chǎn)生航班延誤,在航班運(yùn)行全過(guò)程的各個(gè)階段均可能受到不確定性因素影響。不確定性因素一旦導(dǎo)致了航班延誤,還會(huì)引發(fā)一系列的不確定性因素的產(chǎn)生,從而造成更加嚴(yán)重的延誤波及情況。眾多航班之間的關(guān)聯(lián)性,以及空域和機(jī)場(chǎng)容量的日趨飽和,使延誤難以被吸收。因此,不確定性因素下產(chǎn)生的航班延誤不僅直接影響到航班及所在機(jī)場(chǎng)的運(yùn)行秩序和安全,其對(duì)航班延誤波及的影響作用還會(huì)借助航空運(yùn)輸網(wǎng)絡(luò)傳播擴(kuò)散到關(guān)聯(lián)機(jī)場(chǎng)甚至是非關(guān)聯(lián)機(jī)場(chǎng),引起大范圍的航班延誤,對(duì)民航的運(yùn)行安全和社會(huì)的安定和諧造成了極其惡劣的影響。本文針對(duì)航班安全運(yùn)行機(jī)制,基于航空運(yùn)輸網(wǎng)絡(luò)研究不確定性因素下的航班延誤的波及擴(kuò)散效應(yīng)。首先,探究航空運(yùn)輸網(wǎng)絡(luò)中的航班運(yùn)行機(jī)制,挖掘?qū)е潞桨嘌诱`的各類(lèi)不確定性因素,并將這些不確定性因素結(jié)合航班運(yùn)行機(jī)制分析航班運(yùn)行的各個(gè)階段可能受到的不確定性因素;其次,結(jié)合機(jī)場(chǎng)內(nèi)航班運(yùn)行機(jī)制,分析不確定性因素對(duì)各類(lèi)航班運(yùn)行的影響作用過(guò)程及程度,構(gòu)建可描述此過(guò)程作用機(jī)理的有色-時(shí)間petri網(wǎng)模型,根據(jù)此模型分析機(jī)場(chǎng)內(nèi)航班延誤波及效應(yīng),并對(duì)該理論進(jìn)行仿真實(shí)例驗(yàn)證;再次,結(jié)合多機(jī)場(chǎng)間航班運(yùn)行機(jī)制,分析不確定性因素在航班鏈上關(guān)聯(lián)航班的影響作用過(guò)程,研究航班延誤在航班鏈的上下游航班的縱向波及效應(yīng),結(jié)合上述機(jī)場(chǎng)內(nèi)航班延誤波及模型,構(gòu)建可描述航空運(yùn)輸網(wǎng)絡(luò)中不確定性因素對(duì)航班延誤波及作用過(guò)程機(jī)理的有色-時(shí)間petri網(wǎng)模型,提出延誤縱向波及計(jì)算模型,并做出仿真實(shí)例驗(yàn)證;最后,基于信息共享原則構(gòu)建航空運(yùn)輸網(wǎng)絡(luò)中航班動(dòng)態(tài)調(diào)度優(yōu)化模型,并采用啟發(fā)式模擬退火算法求解模型,通過(guò)仿真驗(yàn)證模型可緩解航班延誤波及情況。通過(guò)科學(xué)的分析不確定性因素在航空運(yùn)輸網(wǎng)絡(luò)中對(duì)航班延誤波及的影響作用程度,才能合理地預(yù)測(cè)其造成的資源和時(shí)間消耗,有條不紊地進(jìn)行航班延誤恢復(fù)調(diào)度和安排,合理的制定航班延誤的處置措施,從而達(dá)到航班延誤波及預(yù)警的目的,提高航班延誤的恢復(fù)效率。
[Abstract]:The problem of flight delay in our country is becoming increasingly prominent. Judging from the actual operation of civil aviation, a single aircraft carries out multiple flight tasks in succession, and the flight planning is closely arranged. Not only the initial stage of flight operation may cause flight delay due to the existence of uncertain factors, but also the uncertainty factors may affect the whole process of flight operation. Once the uncertainty causes the flight delay, it will also lead to a series of uncertainty factors, resulting in more serious delays and ripples. The interconnectedness of many flights and the increasing saturation of airspace and airport capacity make delays difficult to absorb. Therefore, flight delays caused by uncertainties not only directly affect the operation order and safety of flights and their airports, Its impact on flight delays will also spread to related airports or even non-affiliated airports by means of air transport networks, resulting in a wide range of flight delays. Civil aviation operation safety and social stability and harmony caused an extremely bad impact. In this paper, the spread effect of flight delay due to uncertainty is studied based on the flight safety operation mechanism. First of all, it explores the flight operation mechanism in the air transport network, excavates all kinds of uncertain factors that lead to flight delay. These uncertainty factors are combined with the flight operation mechanism to analyze the uncertainty factors that may be encountered in each stage of flight operation. Secondly, combined with the flight operation mechanism in the airport, this paper analyzes the influence process and degree of uncertain factors on the operation of various kinds of flights, and constructs a colored time petri net model which can describe the mechanism of this process. According to this model, the effect of flight delay in the airport is analyzed, and the simulation example is given to verify the theory. Thirdly, combined with the operation mechanism of multi-airport flight, this paper analyzes the influence process of the uncertain factors in the flight chain, and studies the vertical ripple effect of flight delay in the upstream and downstream flights of the flight chain. Combined with the flight delay sweep model in the above airports, a colored time petri net model which can describe the mechanism of the uncertain factors in the air transport network on the flight delay sweep process is constructed, and the calculation model of the delay longitudinal sweep is put forward. The simulation example is given. Finally, based on the principle of information sharing, the optimization model of flight dynamic scheduling in air transportation network is constructed, and the heuristic simulated annealing algorithm is used to solve the model. Through the scientific analysis of the influence degree of the uncertain factors on the flight delay in the air transportation network, the resources and time consumption caused by the uncertainty factors can be reasonably predicted, and the schedule and arrangement of the flight delay recovery can be carried out methodically. To make the disposal measures of flight delay reasonably, so as to achieve the purpose of flight delay and early warning, and to improve the recovery efficiency of flight delay.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南京航空航天大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：TP301.1;F562

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