【摘要】：沿海港口碼頭建設(shè)投資成本高，只有當(dāng)具有規(guī)模的穩(wěn)定的吞吐量來支撐才能保證沿海港口經(jīng)濟(jì)的平穩(wěn)發(fā)展，才能促進(jìn)國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)的健康可持續(xù)發(fā)展。港口發(fā)展中碼頭建設(shè)及岸線資源均具有不可流動(dòng)性，港口岸線的合理開發(fā)和整合利用以及陸域和經(jīng)濟(jì)腹地的良好支撐必然成為港口發(fā)展的重要影響因素。 本文希望通過研究我國(guó)沿海港口發(fā)展和港口岸線集約利用，提出我國(guó)沿海港口發(fā)展中存在的問題及相應(yīng)的應(yīng)對(duì)措施，，以此期待為我國(guó)港口岸線合理開發(fā)利用提供有價(jià)值的參考。本文的研究是從影響沿海港口發(fā)展的影響因素為出發(fā)點(diǎn)，探討沿海港口規(guī)模發(fā)展變化的原因，繼而運(yùn)用VAR模型、時(shí)間序列、回歸模型、彈性系數(shù)對(duì)吞吐規(guī)模進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè)，并結(jié)合定性分析對(duì)結(jié)果進(jìn)行修正，最后給定預(yù)測(cè)區(qū)間。通過研究沿海港口通過能力與吞吐規(guī)模之間的關(guān)系進(jìn)一步研究港口建設(shè)與吞吐量增長(zhǎng)的機(jī)制，并對(duì)港口通過能力進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè)，結(jié)合沿海港口吞吐量的預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果得出2015年和2020年我國(guó)沿海港口生產(chǎn)性碼頭泊位通過能力的提高值。最后建立沿海港口岸線利用效率指標(biāo)，從時(shí)間和空間兩方面來評(píng)價(jià)我國(guó)港口岸線利用效率現(xiàn)狀，根據(jù)已計(jì)算出的通過能力提高值和岸線利用效率指標(biāo)值以及搜集到的規(guī)劃港口岸線數(shù)據(jù)計(jì)算岸線的開發(fā)潛力，為未來港口岸線集約有效利用提供參考。 研究結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn)我國(guó)沿海港口發(fā)展2005年已經(jīng)開始出現(xiàn)不適應(yīng)，通過能力缺口逐年擴(kuò)大，港口間發(fā)展不平衡，這勢(shì)必影響港口經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展。研究發(fā)現(xiàn)我國(guó)港口岸線利用效率低，岸線浪費(fèi)嚴(yán)重。通過計(jì)算岸線開發(fā)潛力發(fā)現(xiàn)未來港口建設(shè)將面臨岸線供應(yīng)不足的局面，這就使得加快提高岸線利用效率成為當(dāng)務(wù)之急。
[Abstract]:The investment cost of coastal port and wharf construction is high. Only when the coastal port is supported by stable throughput on a large scale can the steady development of coastal port economy be guaranteed and the healthy and sustainable development of national economy can be promoted. In the port development, the construction of wharf and the resources of shoreline are all illiquid. The rational development and integrated utilization of port shoreline and the good support of land area and economic hinterland are the important influencing factors of port development. This paper hopes that by studying the development of our coastal ports and the intensive utilization of port shoreline, the problems existing in the development of our country's coastal ports and the corresponding countermeasures will be put forward, so as to provide valuable reference for the rational development and utilization of the port shorelines in China. The research of this paper is based on the factors affecting the development of coastal ports, discusses the reasons for the development of coastal ports, and then uses VAR model, time series, regression model, elastic coefficient to predict the throughput scale. The result is modified by qualitative analysis, and the prediction interval is given at last. The mechanism of port construction and throughput growth is further studied by studying the relationship between port throughput and throughput capacity, and the capacity of port transit is forecasted. Combined with the forecast results of the throughput of coastal ports, it is concluded that in 2015 and 2020, the capacity of berths passing through the productive berths of China's coastal ports will be improved. Finally, the efficiency index of coastal port shoreline utilization is established, and the present situation of seaport shoreline utilization efficiency is evaluated in terms of time and space. According to the calculated value of capacity improvement, the index value of shoreline utilization efficiency and the collected data of planning port shoreline, the development potential of shoreline is calculated, which provides a reference for the intensive utilization of port shoreline in the future. The results show that the development of coastal ports in China has already begun to appear unsuitable in 2005, and the gap of capacity has been enlarged year by year, and the development of ports is unbalanced, which is bound to affect the development of port economy. It is found that the utilization efficiency of port coastline in China is low, and the wastage of coastline is serious. By calculating the potential of shoreline development, it is found that the future port construction will face the shortage of shoreline supply, which makes it urgent to improve the efficiency of shoreline utilization.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：遼寧師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F552.3

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本文編號(hào)：2391963