【摘要】：隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展和城市化進(jìn)程的加快,城市交通壓力越來越大,特別是高峰時(shí)期的擁堵問題尤為突出。公交作為城市交通的主要載體,也是城市居民上下班的主要地面交通工具,公交早晚高峰的擁擠狀況非常明顯。國外理論研究和實(shí)驗(yàn)經(jīng)驗(yàn)均證明實(shí)行分時(shí)定價(jià)能夠較好地轉(zhuǎn)移高峰需求,提高交通工具非高峰時(shí)期的利用率,達(dá)到“削峰填谷”的作用。而目前國內(nèi)公交暫未有實(shí)行分時(shí)定價(jià)的實(shí)例,為充分發(fā)揮票價(jià)杠桿作用,在國內(nèi)對公交實(shí)行分時(shí)定價(jià)進(jìn)行試探性研究具有一定的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義和重要性。 本文在閱讀了大量文獻(xiàn)后發(fā)現(xiàn)分時(shí)定價(jià)的研究一般都集中在實(shí)施情況對比分析、定價(jià)模型研究和選擇結(jié)果分析,對分時(shí)定價(jià)下居民出發(fā)時(shí)間選擇的影響機(jī)理以及影響因素間的內(nèi)在關(guān)系研究較少。故本文從研究公交分時(shí)定價(jià)下居民出發(fā)時(shí)間意向影響因素的角度出發(fā),從下面幾點(diǎn)展開研究： 1、通過文獻(xiàn)分析得到居民出發(fā)時(shí)間客觀影響因素大致總結(jié)為六類,同時(shí)引入了社會(huì)心理學(xué)中比較有影響力的也能較好預(yù)測行為和解釋行為的計(jì)劃行為理論,在該理論基礎(chǔ)上結(jié)合出發(fā)時(shí)間客觀影響因素提出了公交分時(shí)定價(jià)下居民出發(fā)時(shí)間意向概念模型以及基本假設(shè)。 2、以成都公交為數(shù)據(jù)調(diào)查對象,通過預(yù)調(diào)查和正式調(diào)查2個(gè)階段,對公交早高峰出行人群的實(shí)際行為和公交分時(shí)定價(jià)下的行為意向進(jìn)行了數(shù)據(jù)采集,得到了成都市公交早高峰出行人群的出行特征,并進(jìn)行了統(tǒng)計(jì)分析。 3、調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù)通過信度和效度分析后,運(yùn)用SPSS19.0軟件的因子分析對居民出發(fā)時(shí)間選擇客觀因素進(jìn)行分析,提取了票價(jià)感覺閾限、個(gè)人及經(jīng)濟(jì)特征2個(gè)特征因子,接著運(yùn)用Amos17.0對這2個(gè)因子以及計(jì)劃行為理論的4個(gè)因子進(jìn)行了效度檢驗(yàn),最終確定了建立結(jié)構(gòu)方程模型的6個(gè)因子,分別是出發(fā)時(shí)間意向、態(tài)度、主觀規(guī)范、知覺行為控制、票價(jià)感覺閡限、個(gè)人及經(jīng)濟(jì)特征。 4、基于調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù)的因子分析和效度檢驗(yàn)結(jié)果,根據(jù)概念模型建立了公交分時(shí)定價(jià)下居民出發(fā)時(shí)間意向結(jié)構(gòu)方程模型,運(yùn)用Amos17.0對模型進(jìn)行擬合與修正,最終得到了公交分時(shí)定價(jià)下居民出發(fā)時(shí)間意向概念模型,結(jié)果顯示公交分時(shí)定價(jià)下居民出發(fā)時(shí)間影響的直接因素為行為態(tài)度和知覺行為控制,而主觀規(guī)范對行為意向未產(chǎn)生直接影響,而是通過影響行為態(tài)度和知覺行為控制間接影響行為意向,證實(shí)了計(jì)劃行為理論能夠較好的解釋出發(fā)時(shí)間意向,但未能完全解釋需要進(jìn)一步擴(kuò)展。 通過研究的結(jié)果和啟示對公交實(shí)行分時(shí)定價(jià)提出了相關(guān)的建議,可以為公交公司實(shí)施分時(shí)定價(jià)政策提供一定的決策參考。
[Abstract]:With the development of economy and the acceleration of urbanization, the pressure of urban traffic is increasing, especially the problem of congestion during the peak period. As the main carrier of urban traffic, bus is also the main ground transportation for urban residents to commute to and from work. Foreign theoretical research and experimental experience have proved that time-sharing pricing can better transfer peak demand, improve the utilization rate of vehicles during off-peak period, and achieve the function of "cutting peak and filling valley". At present, there are no examples of time-sharing pricing in China. In order to give full play to the leverage of fares, it is of practical significance and importance to tentatively study the time-sharing pricing of public transport in China. After reading a lot of literature, this paper finds that the research of time-sharing pricing is generally focused on comparative analysis of implementation, pricing model and analysis of selection results. There are few studies on the influence mechanism of residents' departure time choice and the internal relationship between the factors under time-sharing pricing. Therefore, from the point of view of studying the influencing factors of residents' departure time intention under the time-sharing pricing of public transport, this paper starts the research from the following points: 1, through the literature analysis, the objective factors of residents' departure time can be summarized into six categories. At the same time, it introduces the theory of planning behavior, which is more influential in social psychology and can better predict and explain behavior. On the basis of this theory, the conceptual model and the basic assumptions of residents' departure time intention under the time-sharing pricing of public transport are put forward in combination with the objective factors of departure time. 2. Taking Chengdu bus as the data survey object, through the two stages of pre-investigation and formal investigation, the actual behavior of the public transport rush travel crowd and the behavior intention under the bus-hour pricing are collected. In this paper, the travel characteristics of the morning rush trip of Chengdu bus are obtained, and the statistical analysis is carried out. 3. After the reliability and validity analysis of the survey data, the objective factors of residents' departure time were analyzed by factor analysis of SPSS19.0 software, and the two characteristic factors of fare perception threshold, individual and economic characteristics were extracted. Then the validity of the two factors and the four factors of the planning behavior theory are tested by using Amos17.0, and the six factors of establishing the structural equation model are determined, which are the intention of departure time, attitude, subjective criterion, respectively. Perceptual behavior control, fare threshold, personal and economic characteristics. 4. Based on the result of factor analysis and validity test of survey data, according to the concept model, the structure equation model of residents' departure time is established, and the model is fitted and modified by Amos17.0. Finally, the conceptual model of residents' departure time intention is obtained. The results show that the direct factors of the residents' departure time under the bus time sharing pricing are behavior attitude and perceptual behavior control. But subjective norms have no direct influence on behavior intention, but indirectly influence behavior intention by influencing behavior attitude and perceptual behavior control, which proves that planning behavior theory can better explain the intention of departure time. However, the need for further expansion is not fully explained. Through the research results and enlightenment, the paper puts forward the relevant suggestions to implement the time-sharing pricing of public transport, which can provide a certain decision reference for the bus companies to implement the time-sharing pricing policy.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：U491.17;F572

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本文編號(hào)：2337536