發(fā)布時間：2018-11-16 14:09

【摘要】：我國軌道建設(shè)雖然起步較晚,但近十年發(fā)展迅猛,自1969年,北京地鐵1號線開通運(yùn)營后,上海、廣州、武漢、南京、深圳、沈陽等城市先后開通了城市第一條地鐵線路。 隨著開通地鐵城市增多,預(yù)測客流與實際客流差距較大的問題越發(fā)明顯。首期開通客流預(yù)測是地鐵運(yùn)營單位制定合理運(yùn)營模式、市場策略的重要依據(jù),不同城市市民因社會經(jīng)濟(jì)水平、文化、氣候以及出行習(xí)慣等因素的差異,在出行選擇時,對時間費用的敏感程度不同。首期開通客流預(yù)測中,票制票價、行車間隔等因素的變化與客流量的波動關(guān)系,可以為運(yùn)營單位制定合理高效的運(yùn)營模式提供科學(xué)的依據(jù)。所以首期開通客流預(yù)測結(jié)果的對軌道運(yùn)營管理有著重要意義。 目前國內(nèi)外專家主要研究城市土地規(guī)劃、人口規(guī)模達(dá)到城市規(guī)劃目標(biāo),各交通方式協(xié)調(diào)配合的樂觀假設(shè)前提下的遠(yuǎn)期客流預(yù)測。針對軌道建設(shè)初期,特別是城市中僅有一條軌道開通運(yùn)營情況下的近期客流預(yù)測研究較少。城市中僅開通一條軌道,其吸引范圍有限,吸引強(qiáng)度偏低,系統(tǒng)服務(wù)水平低,市民對其沒有依賴性,若仍沿用遠(yuǎn)期客流預(yù)測的方法,可能由于過于樂觀估計軌道交通的競爭能力,使預(yù)測值偏高造成誤差。 對此,本文提出首期開通客流預(yù)測方式是：以軌道沿線土地利用調(diào)查、個人出行調(diào)查和現(xiàn)狀公交調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù)為基礎(chǔ),研究分析軌道相關(guān)域中市民的出行方式。通過分析確定影響開通客流因素：票制票價、發(fā)車間隔和站點銜接規(guī)劃實施情況的方案,利用情境設(shè)計組合方案。利用隨機(jī)效用理論,模擬設(shè)計在不同情境下,出行者對不同出行目的,權(quán)衡原有交通方式與軌道交通效用,確定出行方式的過程,建立其他交通方式向軌道交通客流轉(zhuǎn)移預(yù)測模型,預(yù)測軌道交通出行量。通過公交分配軟件計算得到預(yù)測年軌道交通的客運(yùn)量。 將預(yù)測方法運(yùn)用到成都地鐵1號線開通客流的預(yù)測,通過預(yù)測值與地鐵1號線實際運(yùn)營的客流量的比較,驗證方法的可行性。
[Abstract]:Although the track construction of our country started relatively late, it has developed rapidly in the past ten years. Since 1969, after the opening of Beijing Metro Line 1, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Wuhan, Nanjing, Shenzhen, Shenyang and other cities have successively opened the first subway line of the city. With the increasing number of subway cities, the gap between forecasting passenger flow and actual passenger flow becomes more and more obvious. The first opening of passenger flow forecast is an important basis for subway operating units to formulate reasonable operation mode and market strategy. Because of the differences in social and economic level, culture, climate, travel habits and other factors, different urban residents choose to travel. Sensitivity to time costs varies. In the forecast of passenger flow in the first period, the change of ticket price, travel interval and the fluctuation of passenger flow can provide a scientific basis for the operation unit to establish a reasonable and efficient operation model. Therefore, the first opening of passenger flow forecast results of rail operation management has an important significance. At present, experts at home and abroad mainly study urban land planning, the population scale reaches the goal of urban planning, and the optimistic assumption of coordination of traffic modes is the long-term passenger flow prediction. In the early stage of track construction, especially under the condition that only one track is opened and operated in the city, there is little research on the forecast of recent passenger flow. There is only one track in the city, which has a limited range of attraction, low attraction intensity, low service level of the system, and the citizens do not depend on it. If the method of long-term passenger flow prediction is still used, It is possible that the over-optimistic estimation of the competitive power of rail transit results in the error caused by the high prediction value. In view of this, this paper puts forward the first mode of passenger flow prediction: based on the land use survey along the track, personal travel survey and current public transport survey data, this paper studies and analyzes the travel mode of citizens in the track related areas. By analyzing and determining the factors that influence the opening of passenger flow: ticket price, departure interval and station connection planning and implementation plan, using the situation design combination scheme. Using the theory of stochastic utility, the simulation design is designed to determine the process of travel mode under different circumstances, and the travelers weigh the original mode of transportation and the utility of rail transit for different travel purposes. A prediction model of passenger flow transfer from other modes to rail transit is established to predict the travel volume of rail transit. The passenger traffic volume of rail transit is predicted by the calculation of bus distribution software. The prediction method is applied to the passenger flow prediction of Chengdu Metro Line 1. The feasibility of the method is verified by comparing the forecast value with the actual operating passenger flow of Metro Line 1.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：U293.13;U293.5

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本文編號：2335726