【摘要】：集裝箱物流作為港口物流中的重要組成部分，是衡量港口在國際貿(mào)易中地位的標(biāo)志之一，集裝箱吞吐量的預(yù)測也是港口發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略研究的重要內(nèi)容。福建省沿海港口作為全國港口的重要組成部分，在全國綜合交通體系和對臺貿(mào)易運輸中有著重要的地位。隨著海峽西岸經(jīng)濟區(qū)建設(shè)逐步推進和兩岸“三通”的實現(xiàn)，福建省港口發(fā)展將面臨著巨大的機遇。目前，由于福建省港口腹地經(jīng)濟迅速發(fā)展、宏觀政策以及國內(nèi)外宏觀經(jīng)濟等各種因素的影響，對港口集裝箱吞吐量預(yù)測得到的結(jié)果和實際現(xiàn)狀還存在一定的差距。本文正是在這種背景下提出對福建省港口集裝箱吞吐量進行更準(zhǔn)確的預(yù)測，，為集裝箱運輸規(guī)劃和建設(shè)提供理論依據(jù)。 首先，綜述了用于港口集裝箱吞吐量預(yù)測的理論和方法，闡述灰色模型及其組合模型在港口集裝箱吞吐量預(yù)測中的應(yīng)用現(xiàn)狀，針對港口集裝箱吞吐量影響因素的不確定性及其復(fù)雜的關(guān)系，在預(yù)測前期充分分析港口集裝箱吞吐量數(shù)據(jù)規(guī)律及特點，建立港口集裝箱吞吐量預(yù)測方法體系。其次，分析研究GM(1，1)模型在建模過程中存在的問題及其改進方法，提出了一種粒子群算法優(yōu)化GM(1，1)模型背景值和初值方法，然后將線性回歸模型和粒子群算法優(yōu)化灰色GM(1，1)模型結(jié)合，建立了灰色線性組合預(yù)測模型。將該組合模型應(yīng)用到福建省港口集裝箱吞吐量的預(yù)測中，并與單項預(yù)測模型的預(yù)測結(jié)果進行比較，結(jié)果表明本文提出的組合模型的預(yù)測結(jié)果較為合理。最后，結(jié)合預(yù)測結(jié)果對福建省發(fā)展集裝箱物流提出了一些建議。
[Abstract]:Container logistics, as an important part of port logistics, is one of the symbols to measure the status of ports in international trade. The prediction of container throughput is also an important part of port development strategy research. As an important part of the national ports, the coastal ports of Fujian Province play an important role in the national comprehensive transportation system and the trade and transportation to Taiwan. With the construction of the economic zone on the west side of the Taiwan Strait and the realization of the "three links" between the two sides, the port development of Fujian Province will face great opportunities. At present, due to the rapid development of port hinterland economy in Fujian Province and the influence of macroeconomic policies and domestic and foreign macroeconomic factors, there is still a certain gap between the results of port container throughput prediction and the actual situation. It is under this background that this paper puts forward a more accurate prediction of container throughput in Fujian port and provides a theoretical basis for container transportation planning and construction. Firstly, the theory and method of container throughput prediction are summarized, and the application status of grey model and its combination model in port container throughput prediction is described. In view of the uncertainty of the influencing factors of port container throughput and its complex relationship, the law and characteristics of port container throughput data are fully analyzed in the early stage of prediction, and the forecasting method system of port container throughput is established. Secondly, the problems existing in the modeling of GM (1K1) model and its improved method are analyzed. A particle swarm optimization method is proposed to optimize the background value and initial value of the GM (1K1) model. Then the linear regression model and the PSO optimization grey GM (1K1) model are combined. The grey linear combination prediction model is established. The combined model is applied to the forecasting of container throughput in Fujian port, and compared with the forecasting result of single forecasting model. The results show that the forecasting result of the combined model is reasonable. Finally, some suggestions are put forward for Fujian Province to develop container logistics.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：福建農(nóng)林大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F552.7;F224;U695.22

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