發(fā)布時間：2018-10-15 14:55

【摘要】：交通運輸科技發(fā)展規(guī)劃指對其規(guī)劃期內(nèi)的交通運輸科技發(fā)展的指導方針、發(fā)展目標、主要任務、保障措施等作出詳盡規(guī)定的文件。對交通運輸科技發(fā)展規(guī)劃進行評估,主要目的是全面了解規(guī)劃實施的進展程度和質(zhì)量效果,分析規(guī)劃中存在的問題,找出解決問題的方法,并為后續(xù)交通運輸科技發(fā)展規(guī)劃的編制提供依據(jù)。目前對交通運輸科技發(fā)展規(guī)劃的評估,大多只針對交通運輸科技發(fā)展規(guī)劃的立項評估,而對規(guī)劃的中期評估和規(guī)劃完成后的整體評估研究較少,鑒于社會經(jīng)濟發(fā)展對規(guī)劃評估的迫切需求,建立一套完整的交通運輸科技發(fā)展規(guī)劃評估指標體系以及評估模型具有十分重要的意義。 首先,本文闡述了交通運輸科技發(fā)展規(guī)劃的基本理論。交通運輸科技發(fā)展規(guī)劃包含創(chuàng)新能力建設、重大科技研發(fā)、成果推廣與應用和標準化建設四大任務；說明了交通運輸科技規(guī)劃創(chuàng)新性、風險性、多樣性、實用性的特點；交通運輸科技發(fā)展規(guī)劃執(zhí)行的影響因素,包括規(guī)劃原目標設定的合理性、規(guī)劃執(zhí)行的外部環(huán)境、規(guī)劃執(zhí)行的內(nèi)部環(huán)境三大方面。原規(guī)劃目標中落后于現(xiàn)有科技發(fā)展狀態(tài)的要及時中止、撤銷,過于超前的則需適度降低,內(nèi)部要素包括人力、物力、財力、信息資源四大要素,外部環(huán)境包括科技、經(jīng)濟、市場、政策四大環(huán)境要素；對評估的流程也做了詳細說明。 其次,建立交通運輸科技發(fā)展規(guī)劃評估的指標體系。根據(jù)交通運輸科技的任務和影響規(guī)劃執(zhí)行的因素,構(gòu)建了交通運輸科技發(fā)展規(guī)劃評估指標體系,從創(chuàng)新能力建設、重大科技研發(fā)、成果推廣應用、標準化建設四個方面設置,對每個方面的指標又從規(guī)劃進展類和質(zhì)量效果類兩個維度進行區(qū)分。本文對每個指標的含義進行了解釋,并且詳細說明了指標的計算方法及評分標準。這是本文的核心部分,也是創(chuàng)新點之一。 最后,介紹了交通運輸科技發(fā)展規(guī)劃評估模型。指標權重的確定采用層次分析法在MATLAB軟件中編程實現(xiàn),運用灰色模糊模型對交通運輸科技發(fā)展規(guī)劃的評估指標體系進行評價。本文對公路水路交通運輸“十一五”科技發(fā)展規(guī)劃為例說明評估的全過程,該規(guī)劃在科技研發(fā)方面的得分值最高,在標準化建設方面的得分值最低,對此,本文也提出了相關建議。
[Abstract]:The development plan of transportation science and technology refers to the detailed documents for the development of transportation science and technology during the planning period, such as guidelines, development objectives, main tasks, safeguard measures, etc. The main purpose of evaluating the development plan of transportation science and technology is to comprehensively understand the progress and quality effect of the implementation of the plan, analyze the problems existing in the plan, and find out how to solve the problem. And provides the basis for the following transportation science and technology development plan compilation. At present, most of the evaluations of the development plan of transportation technology are focused on the evaluation of the establishment of the plan for the development of transport science and technology, while the mid-term assessment of the planning and the overall assessment after the completion of the plan are less studied. In view of the urgent need of social and economic development for planning evaluation, it is of great significance to establish a complete evaluation index system and evaluation model for scientific and technological development planning of transportation. First of all, this paper expounds the basic theory of transportation science and technology development planning. The development plan of transportation science and technology includes four major tasks: innovation ability construction, major scientific and technological research and development, achievement popularization and application and standardization construction, which illustrates the characteristics of innovation, risk, diversity and practicability of transportation science and technology planning. The factors influencing the implementation of the development plan of transportation science and technology include the rationality of the original goal setting, the external environment of the planning and implementation, and the internal environment of the planning and implementation. Those that lag behind the existing state of scientific and technological development in the original planning objectives should be suspended in time, withdrawn, and those that are too advanced need to be reduced moderately. The internal elements include human, material, financial, and information resources. The external environment includes science, technology and economy. Market, the four environmental elements of policy; the evaluation process is also described in detail. Second, the establishment of transportation science and technology development planning evaluation index system. According to the task of transportation science and technology and the factors influencing the implementation of the plan, the evaluation index system of the development plan of transportation science and technology is constructed, which is set up from four aspects: innovation ability construction, major scientific and technological research and development, promotion and application of achievements, and standardization construction. The indicators of each aspect are distinguished from the two dimensions of planning progress class and quality effect class. In this paper, the meaning of each index is explained, and the calculation method and scoring standard of the index are explained in detail. This is the core of this article, but also one of the innovative points. Finally, the evaluation model of transportation science and technology development planning is introduced. The index weight is determined by the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) program in MATLAB software, and the grey fuzzy model is used to evaluate the evaluation index system of transportation science and technology development planning. This paper illustrates the whole process of evaluation for the "11th Five-Year Plan" of highway and waterway transportation. The plan has the highest score in R & D and the lowest in standardization construction. This article also puts forward the related suggestion.
【學位授予單位】：武漢理工大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F512.1

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