【摘要】：隨著"十三五"規(guī)劃的全面推進(jìn),我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)已經(jīng)逐步邁入新常態(tài)階段,經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)進(jìn)一步調(diào)整;供給側(cè)改革在各個(gè)行業(yè)推行,輕型化、小批量、多批次的高附加值貨物運(yùn)輸需求增長(zhǎng)迅速。與此同時(shí),我國(guó)高速鐵路建設(shè)進(jìn)一步加快,將在未來(lái)建成"八縱八橫"高速鐵路網(wǎng),這給新時(shí)期鐵路參與到高附加值貨物運(yùn)輸競(jìng)爭(zhēng),全面開展高鐵快運(yùn)業(yè)務(wù)創(chuàng)造了良好的基礎(chǔ)條件。在上述的背景下,為了給鐵路部門提供開展高鐵快運(yùn)業(yè)務(wù)提供參考,更好的服務(wù)經(jīng)濟(jì)建設(shè),本文以需求分析和開行方案設(shè)計(jì)兩個(gè)緊密結(jié)合的問(wèn)題為切入點(diǎn)來(lái)研究高鐵快運(yùn),并以長(zhǎng)三角高鐵網(wǎng)絡(luò)為實(shí)際案例進(jìn)行了分析,具體從以下幾個(gè)方面進(jìn)行了研究和探討。(1)高鐵快運(yùn)需求分析定性分析高鐵快運(yùn)的市場(chǎng),總結(jié)高鐵快運(yùn)經(jīng)濟(jì)技術(shù)特點(diǎn)和經(jīng)營(yíng)品類,提出高鐵快運(yùn)貨量的預(yù)測(cè)思路,設(shè)計(jì)組合預(yù)測(cè)模型、高鐵快運(yùn)貨物分擔(dān)率Logit模型、高附加值貨物OD分布雙約束重力預(yù)測(cè)模型、高鐵快運(yùn)誘增貨量預(yù)測(cè)模型,全面系統(tǒng)地預(yù)測(cè)高鐵快運(yùn)的需求。(2)高鐵快運(yùn)列車開行方案設(shè)計(jì)設(shè)計(jì)高鐵快運(yùn)直達(dá)列車和中途作業(yè)列車兩種開行方式,在此基礎(chǔ)上提出開行方案思路,以運(yùn)輸需求滿足程度、運(yùn)輸企業(yè)效益和貨主滿意度為目標(biāo)函數(shù),構(gòu)建多目標(biāo)開行方案模型,根據(jù)高鐵實(shí)際情況列出約束條件,最后設(shè)計(jì)了最短路算法、線性加權(quán)法進(jìn)行求解。(3)以長(zhǎng)三角高鐵網(wǎng)絡(luò)為例進(jìn)行案例分析以長(zhǎng)三角地區(qū)為案例,構(gòu)建了長(zhǎng)三角高鐵快運(yùn)網(wǎng)絡(luò),按照需求預(yù)測(cè)部分的模型對(duì)快運(yùn)網(wǎng)絡(luò)節(jié)點(diǎn)貨量進(jìn)行了預(yù)測(cè),得出OD車流表,并設(shè)計(jì)了長(zhǎng)三角高鐵快運(yùn)列車開行方案。
[Abstract]:With the comprehensive promotion of the 13th Five-Year Plan, China's economy has gradually entered the new normal stage, and the economic structure has been further adjusted; supply-side reforms have been carried out in various industries, light and in small quantities. The demand for multi-batches of high-value-added goods is growing rapidly. At the same time, the construction of high-speed railways in China will be further accelerated, and the "eighth vertical and eighth horizontal" high-speed railway network will be built in the future, which will give the railways in the new period the participation in the competition for the transport of goods with high added value. The development of high-speed rail express transport business has created good basic conditions. Under the above background, in order to provide a reference for railway departments to carry out high-speed rail express transport business and better service economy construction, this paper studies high-speed rail express transportation from the point of view of the two closely combined problems of demand analysis and operation scheme design. Taking the Yangtze River Delta high-speed rail network as a practical case, the paper studies and discusses the following aspects. (1) the demand analysis of high-speed rail express qualitatively analyzes the market of high-speed rail express, summarizes the economic and technical characteristics and operating categories of high-speed rail express transportation. This paper puts forward the forecasting thought of the quantity of high-speed rail express transportation, the design of combined forecasting model, the Logit model of freight share rate of high-speed rail express transportation, the OD distribution double constraint gravity prediction model of high value-added goods, the prediction model of high speed express transportation induced quantity increase. Comprehensive and systematic Prediction of the demand for High-speed Rail Express. (2) the design of high-speed rail express train operation scheme; the design of high-speed rail express direct train and midway train operation; on the basis of this, the train of thought of operation plan is put forward to meet the transportation demand. The benefit of transportation enterprises and the satisfaction degree of cargo owners are taken as objective functions to construct a multi-objective operation plan model. According to the actual conditions of high-speed rail, the constraints are listed, and the shortest path algorithm is designed. (3) taking the Yangtze River Delta high-speed rail network as an example, the paper constructs the Yangtze River Delta high-speed rail express transportation network, and forecasts the node volume according to the model of demand forecasting part. The OD train flow meter is obtained, and the operation scheme of Yangtze River Delta High Speed Rail Express train is designed.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：北京交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F532;F259.2;U294.1

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