【摘要】：我國鐵路目前正處于高速發(fā)展的階段,特別是近幾年來高速鐵路客運(yùn)專線的修建以及“四縱四橫”鐵路快速客運(yùn)通道的規(guī)劃已成為了我國鐵路跨越式發(fā)展的重要標(biāo)志,各種交通方式間的競爭也將日趨激烈。目前我國鐵路客運(yùn)票價制定方法是按照運(yùn)輸成本定價,這種方式不夠靈活,還不能很好地適應(yīng)運(yùn)輸市場的需求,因此,鐵路客運(yùn)票價的制定已成為了一個非常重要的工作,并會直接影響到鐵路客運(yùn)市場份額。 本文首先分析了鐵路、公路、航空三種運(yùn)輸方式的競爭優(yōu)勢及劣勢,接著分析了影響旅客出行選擇的因素,重點(diǎn)對運(yùn)輸服務(wù)屬性因素進(jìn)行了分析并給予量化。其次,建立了基于運(yùn)輸服務(wù)屬性的綜合效用函數(shù),確立了服務(wù)屬性指標(biāo)效用值的求解方法和運(yùn)輸服務(wù)參數(shù)的權(quán)重。再次,分析了集計(jì)模型和非集計(jì)模型各自的特點(diǎn),構(gòu)建了基于綜合效用的多元Logit模型,來預(yù)測不同運(yùn)輸方式各自的市場占有率。最后構(gòu)建了以客運(yùn)市場占有率為目標(biāo)的運(yùn)輸定價模型,當(dāng)鐵路運(yùn)輸方式的競爭對手——高速公路和民航運(yùn)輸?shù)母黜?xiàng)服務(wù)屬性因素固定時,通過反復(fù)調(diào)整鐵路客運(yùn)票價,就會得到不同的綜合效用值,而綜合效用決定了旅客出行方式的選擇,即影響了運(yùn)輸方式的市場分擔(dān)率。市場分擔(dān)率能充分地體現(xiàn)運(yùn)輸方式的競爭力,而研究票價與分擔(dān)率之間的關(guān)系,根據(jù)運(yùn)輸方式分擔(dān)率來定價就是基于運(yùn)輸方式競爭為導(dǎo)向,以此確定合理的鐵路客運(yùn)票價。 通過廣深線、成渝既有線、京滬線三個實(shí)例,在不同運(yùn)輸距離和競爭條件下,根據(jù)建立的綜合效用模型、Logit模型及定價模型來確定合理的票價率。經(jīng)過實(shí)證研究,本文認(rèn)為,短途距離的高速鐵路客運(yùn)運(yùn)輸方式制定0.58元/人km的票價率,中途距離的既有線鐵路客運(yùn)運(yùn)輸方式制定0.14元/人km的票價率,長途距離的高速鐵路客運(yùn)運(yùn)輸方式制定0.5元/人km的票價率是比較合理的。
[Abstract]:At present, the railway of our country is in the stage of high speed development, especially the construction of the passenger dedicated line of the high-speed railway in recent years and the planning of the fast passenger passage of the "four longitudinal and four horizontal" railway has become an important symbol of the leap-forward development of the railway in our country. Competition among various modes of transportation will also become increasingly fierce. At present, the pricing method of railway passenger transport fares in China is based on the transportation cost, which is not flexible enough and can not meet the needs of the transport market well. Therefore, the formulation of railway passenger transport fares has become a very important task. And will directly affect the market share of railway passenger transport. This paper first analyzes the competitive advantages and disadvantages of railway, highway and air transportation modes, then analyzes the factors that affect the passenger travel choice, and focuses on the analysis and quantification of the transport service attribute factors. Secondly, the comprehensive utility function based on the transportation service attribute is established, and the method to solve the utility value of the service attribute index and the weight of the transportation service parameter are established. Thirdly, the characteristics of the aggregate model and the non-aggregate model are analyzed, and the multivariate Logit model based on comprehensive utility is constructed to predict the market share of different transportation modes. Finally, the paper constructs a transport pricing model aiming at the market share of passenger transport. When the competitors of railway transport mode-freeway and civil aviation transport have fixed service attributes, they adjust the ticket price of railway passenger transport repeatedly. Different comprehensive utility values will be obtained, and the comprehensive utility determines the choice of passenger travel mode, that is, it affects the market share rate of transportation mode. Market share rate can fully reflect the competitiveness of transportation mode, and the study of the relationship between ticket price and share rate, according to the transport mode share rate pricing is based on the mode of transport competition as the guide, so as to determine a reasonable railway passenger ticket price. Through three examples of Guangzhou-Shenzhen Railway, Chengdu-Chongqing existing Railway and Beijing-Shanghai Line, under different transportation distance and competitive conditions, the reasonable fare rate can be determined according to the established comprehensive utility model, logit model and pricing model. Based on the empirical research, this paper holds that the short distance high speed railway passenger transport mode formulates the fare rate of 0. 58 yuan / person km, and the existing railway passenger transport mode of midway distance makes 0. 14 yuan / person km fare rate. It is reasonable to make 0.5 yuan / person km fare rate for long distance high speed railway passenger transport mode.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：U293;F532.5

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 馬波濤,張于心,趙翠霞;運(yùn)用Logit模型對高速客流分擔(dān)率的估計(jì)[J];北方交通大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào);2003年02期

2 黃承鋒,楊秀苔,李毅;運(yùn)輸通道市場結(jié)構(gòu)變動的靜態(tài)博弈分析——以成渝通道客運(yùn)為例[J];重慶交通學(xué)院學(xué)報(bào);2000年04期

3 曾曦;王慈光;;Logit模型的改進(jìn)及其在客流分擔(dān)率預(yù)測中的應(yīng)用——以成渝城際鐵路為例[J];長沙交通學(xué)院學(xué)報(bào);2007年04期

4 楊忠振;王璐;蔣永雷;;高速客運(yùn)通道上多種運(yùn)輸方式的分擔(dān)率分析[J];大連海事大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào);2008年04期

5 張旭;欒維新;蔡權(quán)德;趙冰茹;;論高速鐵路與航空運(yùn)輸客票博弈定價[J];大連海事大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào)(社會科學(xué)版);2012年02期

6 楊兆升,徐立群;基于用戶出行行為的動態(tài)用戶最優(yōu)模型[J];公路交通科技;1998年04期

7 楊偉靜;;基于BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)的鐵路客流量預(yù)測研究[J];合作經(jīng)濟(jì)與科技;2010年13期

8 霍有志;楊延梅;;基于競爭博弈的鐵路客運(yùn)票價調(diào)整[J];交通科技與經(jīng)濟(jì);2010年06期

9 孫朝苑;客運(yùn)專線對沿線城市鐵路客運(yùn)量分流問題的研究[J];鐵道經(jīng)濟(jì)研究;2004年03期

10 張喜;基于意向調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù)的非集計(jì)運(yùn)量預(yù)測模型估計(jì)的研究[J];鐵道學(xué)報(bào);2000年02期

，

本文編號：2200815