【摘要】：以石油為主的傳統(tǒng)能源深刻影響著世界經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展,能源安全也越來(lái)越受到各國(guó)關(guān)注。我國(guó)是世界第二大石油消費(fèi)國(guó),也是世界石油進(jìn)口量增長(zhǎng)最快的國(guó)家。2011年我國(guó)石油消費(fèi)量453.7百萬(wàn)噸,進(jìn)口量253.8百萬(wàn)噸,對(duì)外依存度達(dá)55.3%。進(jìn)口地主要集中在中東、非洲、南美洲及俄羅斯等地,其中從中東、非洲及南美洲地區(qū)進(jìn)口的石油量占我國(guó)總進(jìn)口量的70%,這些地區(qū)的進(jìn)口石油主要通過(guò)海上運(yùn)輸完成。由此可見(jiàn),維護(hù)海上能源運(yùn)輸通道的通暢性與安全性對(duì)我國(guó)能源的戰(zhàn)略安全具有重要意義。 隨著我國(guó)對(duì)進(jìn)口能源的依賴性,尤其是進(jìn)口原油的依賴性,進(jìn)口能源地集中、國(guó)內(nèi)船舶承運(yùn)份額低、運(yùn)輸通道依賴性強(qiáng)等一系列因素對(duì)我國(guó)海上原油運(yùn)輸通道安全的影響也越來(lái)越大。 本文以我國(guó)海上原油運(yùn)輸通道為研究對(duì)象,在論述我國(guó)原油主要進(jìn)口國(guó)及海上運(yùn)輸通道的基礎(chǔ)上,從人—機(jī)—環(huán)境的角度分析了我國(guó)海上原油運(yùn)輸通道的影響因素。對(duì)海上原油運(yùn)輸通道安全性潛在的威脅從能源供應(yīng)國(guó)、世界大國(guó)影響、海上通航環(huán)境及國(guó)家對(duì)船隊(duì)的控制力等角度進(jìn)行分析,并利用模糊綜合評(píng)判法對(duì)進(jìn)口原油的主要海上運(yùn)輸通道的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)性進(jìn)行評(píng)價(jià)�；诤Ｉ线\(yùn)輸通道的安全性,本文從船隊(duì)-航線角度建立海上原油運(yùn)輸通道運(yùn)量分配優(yōu)化模型,考慮承運(yùn)份額在海上能源通道安全中的影響,利用遺傳算法計(jì)算各條航線的運(yùn)量分配情況,并進(jìn)行實(shí)例研究,針對(duì)前文的分析對(duì)我國(guó)海上能源運(yùn)輸通道安全性提出相應(yīng)的對(duì)策建議。
[Abstract]:Petroleum-based traditional energy has a profound impact on the development of the world economy, and energy security has attracted more and more attention. China is the world's second largest oil consumer and the fastest growing country in oil imports. In 2011, China's oil consumption was 453.7 million tons, import volume was 253.8 million tons, and its external dependence reached 55.3 million tons. The imports are mainly from the Middle East, Africa, South America and Russia, among which the oil imports from the Middle East, Africa and South America account for 70% of the total import volume of China, and the oil imports from these regions are mainly completed by sea transportation. It can be seen that it is of great significance to maintain the flow and safety of offshore energy transportation channels for China's energy strategic safety. With the dependence of our country on imported energy sources, especially the dependence of imported crude oil, and the concentration of imported energy sources, the share of domestic shipping is low. A series of factors, such as strong dependence of transportation channels, have more and more influence on the safety of crude oil transportation channels in China. Based on the discussion of the main importing countries of crude oil and the marine transportation channels in China, this paper analyzes the influencing factors of China's crude oil transportation channels from the point of view of man-machine-environment. The potential threats to the safety of crude oil transportation channels at sea are analyzed from the perspectives of energy suppliers, the influence of world powers, the maritime navigation environment and the state's control over the fleet. The fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is used to evaluate the risk of the main marine transportation channels of imported crude oil. Based on the safety of marine transportation channels, this paper establishes an optimal model for the distribution of crude oil transportation channels from the perspective of flotilla and route, considering the influence of transportation share on the safety of offshore energy channels. Genetic algorithm is used to calculate the traffic distribution of each route, and a case study is carried out. According to the above analysis, the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are put forward for the safety of marine energy transportation channels in China.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：大連海事大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號(hào)】：U695.28

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本文編號(hào)：2186594