【摘要】：氣候變化哥本哈根大會(huì)后,“低碳、減排”引起了世界人民的關(guān)注。中國(guó)政府對(duì)世界做出鄭重承諾,并提出了在“十二五”期間單位GDP低碳減排17%的要求。運(yùn)輸業(yè)作為能源消耗較大的產(chǎn)業(yè),在當(dāng)前形勢(shì)下,為達(dá)到低碳目標(biāo),必須大力發(fā)展低碳運(yùn)輸,大力推行高能效、低能耗的運(yùn)輸方式。隨著東北老工業(yè)基地振興步伐的加大,東北地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)得到了快速發(fā)展,這為大連港的發(fā)展創(chuàng)造了好的機(jī)遇。在把大連港建設(shè)成為東北亞航運(yùn)中心的進(jìn)程中,集裝箱運(yùn)輸?shù)暮ｈF聯(lián)運(yùn)發(fā)揮著重要的作用。集裝箱海鐵聯(lián)運(yùn),作為一種重要的多式聯(lián)運(yùn),既提高運(yùn)輸效率節(jié)約成本,又大大減少了碳排放,在港口集疏運(yùn)體系中體現(xiàn)出較大的優(yōu)勢(shì)。在此背景下,本文通過預(yù)測(cè)低碳運(yùn)輸下,大連港集裝箱海鐵聯(lián)運(yùn)的發(fā)展趨勢(shì)；分析計(jì)算集裝箱海鐵聯(lián)運(yùn)帶來的經(jīng)濟(jì)效益,突出海鐵聯(lián)運(yùn)發(fā)展的重要性和必要性。 本文從介紹低碳運(yùn)輸和海鐵聯(lián)運(yùn)發(fā)展開始,綜合國(guó)內(nèi)外相關(guān)發(fā)展研究現(xiàn)狀,提出問題研究的的重要意義。論文第三章、第四章是本文的主體部分,第三章從低碳運(yùn)輸要求影響下,大連港集裝箱集疏運(yùn)比例變化入手,分別分析預(yù)測(cè)了大連港集裝箱海鐵聯(lián)運(yùn)的趨勢(shì)發(fā)展量和低碳轉(zhuǎn)移量。第四章針對(duì)集裝箱海鐵聯(lián)運(yùn)與海公聯(lián)運(yùn)在運(yùn)輸成本、碳排放量、運(yùn)輸時(shí)間、運(yùn)輸安全性等方面的不同,分別分析計(jì)算了,集裝箱海鐵聯(lián)運(yùn)在包括降低運(yùn)輸成本效益、減少碳排放效益、節(jié)約貨物在途時(shí)間的時(shí)間價(jià)值成本效益和減少交通事故和貨損事故的安全成本效益等四方面的效益。 全文的重點(diǎn)在于根據(jù)我國(guó)低碳減排要求,對(duì)大連港集裝箱海鐵聯(lián)運(yùn)的運(yùn)量預(yù)測(cè),以及四種因素下的效益計(jì)算兩個(gè)方面。在預(yù)測(cè)中,根據(jù)所大連港歷年的數(shù)據(jù)特征,選取灰色系統(tǒng)多變量數(shù)列預(yù)測(cè)模型；在效益計(jì)算,綜合考慮運(yùn)輸方式、運(yùn)輸區(qū)間及貨物的特性,與海公聯(lián)運(yùn)方式對(duì)比計(jì)算集裝箱海鐵聯(lián)運(yùn)的效益。論文研究結(jié)果較為全面的反映了加快集裝箱海鐵聯(lián)運(yùn)發(fā)展的必要性。
[Abstract]:After the Copenhagen Climate change Conference, low carbon, emission reduction has attracted the attention of people all over the world. The Chinese government has made a solemn commitment to the world and has demanded a low carbon reduction of 17% per unit GDP during the 12th Five-Year Plan period. Transportation industry is a large energy consuming industry. In order to achieve the goal of low carbon transportation, it is necessary to develop low-carbon transportation and carry out transportation mode with high energy efficiency and low energy consumption. With the development of the old industrial base in Northeast China, the economy of Northeast China has been developing rapidly, which has created a good opportunity for the development of Dalian Port. In the process of building Dalian Port into a shipping center in Northeast Asia, sea-rail transport plays an important role in container transport. As an important multimodal transport container seaborne combined transport not only improves the transportation efficiency and saves the cost but also greatly reduces the carbon emissions which embodies a great advantage in the port transportation system. Under this background, this paper forecasts the development trend of container seaborne transport in Dalian Port under low-carbon transportation, analyzes and calculates the economic benefits brought by container seaborne combined transport, and highlights the importance and necessity of the development of seaborne combined transport. In this paper, the development of low-carbon transport and seaborne combined transport is introduced, and the significance of the research is put forward. Chapter three, chapter four is the main part of this paper. The third chapter starts with the change of container transportation proportion in Dalian Port under the influence of low-carbon transportation requirements. The trend and low carbon transfer of container seaborne combined transport in Dalian Port are analyzed and forecasted respectively. The fourth chapter analyzes and calculates the difference in transport cost, carbon emission, transport time, transport safety and so on. The benefits of reducing carbon emission, saving the time value of goods on the way, and reducing the safety and cost benefits of traffic accidents and damage accidents are four aspects. According to the requirements of low carbon emission reduction in China, the paper focuses on forecasting the transport volume of container seaborne combined transport in Dalian Port and calculating the benefit under four factors. In the forecast, according to the data characteristics of the Dalian port, the grey system multivariable sequence prediction model is selected, and in the benefit calculation, the mode of transport, the transport section and the characteristics of the goods are considered synthetically. Compared with sea-public transport mode, the efficiency of container sea-rail transport is calculated. The results of this paper reflect the necessity of accelerating the development of container seaborne-rail transport.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：大連海事大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號(hào)】：F552;F205

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本文編號(hào)：2185392