【摘要】：隨著我國經(jīng)濟(jì)的快速增長和國際貿(mào)易量的增加,我國航運(yùn)和港口的需求越來越大,港口規(guī)也在不斷擴(kuò)大,港口環(huán)境問題逐步顯現(xiàn)。近年來,港口生態(tài)環(huán)境逐漸惡化,港口周邊與城市交叉區(qū)域交通擁堵嚴(yán)重,港口與城市在發(fā)展過程中土地需求存在沖突等問題也都越來越受到港口管理者及相關(guān)學(xué)者的重視。港口環(huán)境容納能力的大小和可持續(xù)發(fā)展水平將直接影響到港口未來的發(fā)展,因此,研究我國港口的環(huán)境承載能力至關(guān)重要。 本文在借鑒其他學(xué)者研究成果的基礎(chǔ)上,歸納總結(jié)并進(jìn)一步提出港口環(huán)境承載力的概念,即廣義的港口環(huán)境承載力,此處的“環(huán)境”既包括港口自然生態(tài)系統(tǒng)還包括社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)子系統(tǒng)等；簡要分析我國沿海主要港口的發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀,提出當(dāng)前我國港口存在的環(huán)境問題；結(jié)合這些現(xiàn)存問題,從港口環(huán)境的現(xiàn)狀、壓力的來源和如何承受壓力幾個(gè)方面,分析影響港口發(fā)展的主要影響因素,并建立港口環(huán)境承載力的評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系,確定各指標(biāo)的取值方法,建立集對(duì)分析——熵權(quán)法評(píng)價(jià)模型；最后選擇我國主要的港口即大連港、天津港、青島港、上海港、寧波——舟山港和廣州港作為本文的評(píng)價(jià)對(duì)象,評(píng)價(jià)各港口環(huán)境承載力大小,并預(yù)測(cè)當(dāng)前環(huán)境承載能力下的港口最大吞吐量。評(píng)價(jià)結(jié)果顯示：我國主要的沿海港口中上海港的環(huán)境承載能力最大,其次是寧波——舟山港、最差的是青島港,且通過結(jié)果穩(wěn)定性能分析,本文的評(píng)價(jià)結(jié)果具有絕對(duì)穩(wěn)定性；就港口的單位環(huán)境承載力而言,上海港和廣州港具有較大優(yōu)勢(shì),大連港次之,寧波——舟山港的單位環(huán)境承載力最小。 本文將集對(duì)分析的方法引入到港口環(huán)境承載力的評(píng)價(jià)中來,經(jīng)驗(yàn)證具有較好的穩(wěn)定性,取得了較為滿意的評(píng)價(jià)結(jié)果。本文在研究港口環(huán)境承載能力的基礎(chǔ)上,在各港口現(xiàn)有環(huán)境承載力水平下,預(yù)測(cè)各港口的最大吞吐能力,為綠色港口的建設(shè)和可持續(xù)發(fā)展提供了一定的理論依據(jù)。
[Abstract]:With the rapid growth of China's economy and the increase of international trade, the demand for shipping and ports in China is increasing, port regulations are also expanding, and port environmental problems are gradually emerging. In recent years, the ecological environment of the port has gradually deteriorated, the traffic congestion between the port periphery and the city crossing area is serious, and the problems such as the conflict of the land demand between the port and the city in the process of development have been paid more and more attention by the port managers and related scholars. The capacity of the port environment and the level of sustainable development will directly affect the future development of the port. Therefore, it is very important to study the environmental bearing capacity of the port in China. Based on the research results of other scholars, this paper summarizes and further puts forward the concept of port environmental carrying capacity, that is, the broad concept of port environmental bearing capacity. The "environment" here includes not only the natural ecosystem of the port but also the social and economic subsystem, etc. It briefly analyzes the present situation of the development of the main ports along the coast of our country, puts forward the environmental problems existing in the ports of our country at present, and combines these existing problems. From the current situation of port environment, the source of pressure and how to bear the pressure, this paper analyzes the main influencing factors of port development, establishes the evaluation index system of port environmental carrying capacity, and determines the method of selecting the value of each index. The evaluation model of set pair analysis-entropy weight method is established, and the main ports in China, namely Dalian Port, Tianjin Port, Qingdao Port, Shanghai Port, Ningbo Zhoushan Port and Guangzhou Port, are selected as the evaluation objects. The environmental carrying capacity of each port is evaluated and the maximum throughput of the port under the current environmental carrying capacity is predicted. The evaluation results show that the environmental carrying capacity of Shanghai Port is the largest, followed by Ningbo-Zhoushan Port, and Qingdao Port is the worst among the main coastal ports in China, and through the stability performance analysis of the results, the evaluation results of this paper have absolute stability; As far as the unit environmental carrying capacity of the port is concerned, Shanghai Port and Guangzhou Port have great advantages, Dalian Port takes the second place, and Ningbo Zhoushan Port has the smallest unit environmental carrying capacity. In this paper, the method of set pair analysis is introduced to the evaluation of port environmental carrying capacity. It is proved that it has good stability and satisfactory evaluation results have been obtained. Based on the study of the carrying capacity of the port environment, this paper predicts the maximum throughput capacity of each port under the existing environmental carrying capacity of each port, which provides a certain theoretical basis for the construction and sustainable development of the green port.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：大連海事大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號(hào)】：F552;F224

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