【摘要】：用戶在線機票代理商選擇行為的分析對旅游搜索網(wǎng)站機票搜索產(chǎn)品系統(tǒng)的改進非常重要。該文基于某旅游搜索網(wǎng)站機票搜索和預(yù)訂用戶的在線數(shù)據(jù),對該網(wǎng)站的用戶在線代理商選擇行為進行分析。運用了多項logit模型理論及方法,將有關(guān)代理商的機票報價、評價、增值服務(wù)、頁面位置以及市場份額的變量引入模型,并建立了可以解釋該選擇行為的對數(shù)價格多項logit模型。結(jié)果顯示:用戶的確最關(guān)注的是代理商的機票報價;搭售保險和評價人數(shù)過少都不利于用戶對代理商的選擇;增值服務(wù)的提供和較高的評分會增加用戶對代理商的興趣;用戶更傾向于選擇展示頁面中靠前位置的代理商,其次是靠后的代理商;市場份額大的代理商對用戶的選擇行為會產(chǎn)生顯著影響。預(yù)測檢驗表明該文建立的模型比歷史數(shù)據(jù)預(yù)測方法有更高的預(yù)測精度。
[Abstract]:The analysis of the behavior of online ticket agent selection is very important to the improvement of ticket search product system of travel search website. Based on the online data of ticket search and reservation users of a travel search website, this paper analyzes the online agent selection behavior of the users. By using the theory and method of multiple logit models, this paper introduces the variables of ticket quotation, evaluation, value-added service, page location and market share into the model, and establishes the logarithmic price multivariate logit model which can explain the choice behavior. The results show that the users really pay most attention to the ticket quotation of the agent, the low number of insurance and evaluation is not conducive to the choice of the agent, the provision of value-added service and the higher score will increase the interest of the user in the agent; Users are more likely to choose the agent in the front position of the display page, followed by the next agent; the agent with large market share will have a significant impact on the user's choice behavior. The prediction test shows that the model established in this paper has higher prediction accuracy than the historical data prediction method.
【作者單位】： 清華大學(xué)工業(yè)工程系;內(nèi)蒙古大學(xué)交通學(xué)院;
【基金】：國家自然科學(xué)基金資助項目(71622006)
【分類號】：F724.6;F562.6

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