【摘要】：大量化石燃料燃燒造成的溫室氣體排放,已經成為21世紀威脅人類生存的重要問題。其中二氧化碳的排放是最引起我們關注的,隨著經濟的發(fā)展,人們的生產生活帶來的二氧化碳排放是越來越多。交通運輸業(yè)是全球范圍內碳排放量較高的行業(yè)之一,因此通過技術和政策手段降低交通運輸業(yè)的單位碳排放量十分重要。皖江城市帶區(qū)域在我國貨運交通網絡中具有十分重要的地位。因此,研究皖江城市帶物流交通運輸低碳發(fā)展思路對其他區(qū)域乃至整個國家的低碳交通運輸體系建設和發(fā)展具有很高的參考價值和現實意義。本文主要對貨運運輸碳排放進行研究,從發(fā)展低碳運輸這個思路出發(fā),研究皖江城市帶發(fā)展低碳貨物運輸的發(fā)展策略。文章首先介紹了對于低碳運輸研究的學相關理論和研究方法,然后對皖江城市帶的貨運交通現狀及能源消耗等情況進行了計量分析,研究分析皖江城市帶貨運交通的發(fā)展現狀及存在的問題。在之前內容的基礎上,對皖江城市帶的貨運交通碳排放進行了深入分析,運用了灰色模型,并使用馬爾科夫殘差修正提高模型精度,對交通運輸貨運量和碳排放量進行了預測,分析了二者的發(fā)展趨勢,然后通過碳排放因素分解模型得出影響碳排放的四個影響因素。結合前文分析和皖江城市帶實際情況,對皖江城市帶貨運交通的低碳減排發(fā)展提供對策。
[Abstract]:The greenhouse gas emissions caused by the combustion of fossil fuels have become an important problem threatening the survival of human beings in the 21 ~ (st) century. With the development of economy, more and more carbon dioxide emissions are produced by people. Transportation industry is one of the industries with high carbon emissions in the world, so it is very important to reduce the unit carbon emissions of transportation industry by means of technology and policy. The region of urban belt in Anhui River plays a very important role in the freight transportation network of our country. Therefore, it is of great reference value and practical significance to study the development of low-carbon transportation system in other regions and even in the whole country. In this paper, the carbon emission of freight transportation is studied, and the development strategy of low-carbon freight transportation in the urban belt of Anhui River is studied from the view of developing low-carbon transportation. This paper first introduces the related theories and research methods of low-carbon transportation, and then analyzes the current situation of freight transportation and energy consumption in the urban belt of Wanjiang River. This paper analyzes the current situation and existing problems of freight transportation with urban belt in Anhui River. On the basis of the previous contents, the carbon emissions of freight transportation in the urban belt of Anhui River are deeply analyzed, the grey model is used, and the accuracy of the model is improved by using Markov residuals correction, and the volume of freight and carbon emissions of transportation is forecasted. The development trend of the two is analyzed, and the four influencing factors of carbon emission are obtained through the decomposition model of carbon emission factors. Based on the above analysis and the actual situation of Anhui River urban belt, the countermeasures are provided for the development of low carbon emission reduction of freight transportation in Anhui River city.
【學位授予單位】：浙江海洋大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F512.7

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