中國民航與高鐵競爭因素的敏感性分析研究
發(fā)布時間：2018-07-15 12:50
【摘要】：在系統(tǒng)分析現(xiàn)有旅客民航與高鐵出行方式選擇影響因素的基礎上,從購票、到站、中轉換乘、出行、離站全過程視角全面科學地設計了旅客出行選擇行為實驗,獲取旅客中長距離出行過程中民航與高鐵的RP數(shù)據(jù),將高鐵作為參考方式建立BL方式選擇模型,獲取顯著性影響因素的參數(shù)估計結果,并進行顯著性影響因素的敏感性分析.研究結果表明:運行時間、出行距離、出行費用、到站時間、準時性是影響民航和高鐵競爭的顯著性因素;運行時間、出行距離、出行費用的彈性值分別為-3.05、1.39、1.07,絕對值均大于1,表明運行時間、出行距離、出行費用對高鐵競爭下的民航選擇富有彈性;到站時間、準時性的彈性值分別為0.41、-0.82,絕對值均小于1,表明到站時間和準時性對高鐵競爭下民航的選擇缺乏彈性.研究成果可為運輸資源合理配置及交通運輸政策制定提供重要的科學依據(jù).
[Abstract]:On the basis of systematic analysis of the influencing factors of existing passenger civil aviation and high speed rail travel mode selection, from the view of purchase, arrival, transfer, travel and departure, the experiment of passenger travel choice behavior is designed, and the RP data of civil aviation and high speed rail in the long distance travel process are obtained, and the high speed rail is used as a reference to establish BL. The results show that running time, travel distance, travel cost, arrival time, punctuality are significant factors affecting the competition between civil aviation and high speed rail, and the elastic value of running time, travel distance and travel cost are divided. Not -3.05,1.39,1.07, the absolute value is more than 1, indicating that the running time, travel distance and travel cost are elastic to the civil aviation choice under the high speed rail competition; the arrival time, the elastic value of the punctuality are 0.41, and the absolute value is less than 1, indicating that the arrival time and the punctuality are inelastic to the selection of the civil aviation under the high speed of the high speed rail. It provides an important scientific basis for the rational allocation of transport resources and the formulation of transportation policies.
【作者單位】： 西安建筑科技大學土木工程學院;東南大學交通學院;
【基金】：國家自然科學基金重點資助項目(51338003) 中國博士后基金面上資助項目(2015M571644) 陜西省住房城鄉(xiāng)建設科技開發(fā)計劃資助項目(2015-K54)
【分類號】：F532;F562
本文編號：2124128
[Abstract]:On the basis of systematic analysis of the influencing factors of existing passenger civil aviation and high speed rail travel mode selection, from the view of purchase, arrival, transfer, travel and departure, the experiment of passenger travel choice behavior is designed, and the RP data of civil aviation and high speed rail in the long distance travel process are obtained, and the high speed rail is used as a reference to establish BL. The results show that running time, travel distance, travel cost, arrival time, punctuality are significant factors affecting the competition between civil aviation and high speed rail, and the elastic value of running time, travel distance and travel cost are divided. Not -3.05,1.39,1.07, the absolute value is more than 1, indicating that the running time, travel distance and travel cost are elastic to the civil aviation choice under the high speed rail competition; the arrival time, the elastic value of the punctuality are 0.41, and the absolute value is less than 1, indicating that the arrival time and the punctuality are inelastic to the selection of the civil aviation under the high speed of the high speed rail. It provides an important scientific basis for the rational allocation of transport resources and the formulation of transportation policies.
【作者單位】： 西安建筑科技大學土木工程學院;東南大學交通學院;
【基金】：國家自然科學基金重點資助項目(51338003) 中國博士后基金面上資助項目(2015M571644) 陜西省住房城鄉(xiāng)建設科技開發(fā)計劃資助項目(2015-K54)
【分類號】：F532;F562
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