【摘要】：我國(guó)城市軌道交通行業(yè)正處于快速發(fā)展建設(shè)時(shí)期,不斷有新的城市軌道交通線路投入運(yùn)營(yíng)。新線路的開(kāi)通,不僅使網(wǎng)絡(luò)拓?fù)浣Y(jié)構(gòu)更加復(fù)雜、網(wǎng)絡(luò)覆蓋范圍不斷擴(kuò)大,而且促進(jìn)了軌道客流的增長(zhǎng)。新線開(kāi)通導(dǎo)致的客流增長(zhǎng),可能造成既有線網(wǎng)站點(diǎn)乘降量過(guò)大、區(qū)間負(fù)荷過(guò)大等不利影響,導(dǎo)致難以發(fā)揮整個(gè)城市軌道交通網(wǎng)絡(luò)的作用,擔(dān)負(fù)起城市公共交通骨干的責(zé)任。因此研究獲得城市軌道交通既有線路的客流數(shù)據(jù),新線開(kāi)通條件下既有線網(wǎng)的客流變化情況、時(shí)空分布特點(diǎn)規(guī)律,新線開(kāi)通對(duì)既有線網(wǎng)客流的影響規(guī)律,對(duì)新線設(shè)計(jì)方案制定和選取,新線開(kāi)通可能造成的客流影響,全網(wǎng)客流預(yù)測(cè),優(yōu)化調(diào)整運(yùn)營(yíng)方案等方面具有重要意義。研究以分析新線開(kāi)通對(duì)既有線客流影響為目標(biāo)。首先,為分析單條新線開(kāi)通對(duì)既有網(wǎng)絡(luò)客流的影響,在充分考慮實(shí)際的新線客流來(lái)源以及城市軌道交通網(wǎng)絡(luò)結(jié)構(gòu)特點(diǎn)的基礎(chǔ)上,構(gòu)建了新線客流還原模型。模型利用基于空間位置及距離的概率函數(shù)將新線客流還原至新線開(kāi)通前的網(wǎng)絡(luò)中,利用Trans CAD軟件,按照隨機(jī)用戶平衡方式分配客流至網(wǎng)絡(luò)中。通過(guò)模型,獲得了單條新線開(kāi)通條件下的客流數(shù)據(jù),以及新線開(kāi)通之前的客流數(shù)據(jù)。其次,基于模型得到的單條新線開(kāi)通前后的客流數(shù)據(jù),按照全天到高峰小時(shí)的時(shí)間尺度,對(duì)其進(jìn)行網(wǎng)絡(luò)、線路、區(qū)間、車站層級(jí)下的客流指標(biāo)變化分析,并對(duì)全天時(shí)間尺度下的站點(diǎn)層級(jí)、區(qū)間層級(jí)的客流數(shù)據(jù)變化進(jìn)行聚類等級(jí)劃分,對(duì)不同新線單獨(dú)開(kāi)通對(duì)既有線站點(diǎn)乘降量及區(qū)間變化進(jìn)行了評(píng)價(jià)。再次,基于計(jì)算分析得到的結(jié)果,結(jié)合新線空間地理信息,分析并總結(jié)了不同新線類型對(duì)于既有線車站和區(qū)間的影響規(guī)律。最后,由于已有的結(jié)論基于新線開(kāi)通伴隨重大交通政策的調(diào)整下的數(shù)據(jù),結(jié)果難免受到多因素的交叉影響。因此,將模型應(yīng)用于只有新線(昌平線二期和14號(hào)線中段)開(kāi)通而無(wú)其他重大交通政策調(diào)整的案例分析,驗(yàn)證了模型的有效性和普適性。研究得到的客流影響規(guī)律和特征,能夠?yàn)榻窈笮戮�路的規(guī)劃和實(shí)施提供一定參考。文末對(duì)全文進(jìn)行了總結(jié),對(duì)本研究的主要成果進(jìn)行了歸納,對(duì)研究存在的問(wèn)題和改進(jìn)之處進(jìn)行了概括,展望了進(jìn)一步研究工作的方向。
[Abstract]:The urban rail transit industry in China is in the period of rapid development and construction, and the new urban rail transit lines have been put into operation. The opening of the new lines not only makes the network topology more complex, the network coverage is expanding, but also promotes the growth of the rail passenger flow. The increase of passenger flow caused by the new line opening may cause the existing line, which may cause the existing line. It is difficult to play the role of the whole urban rail transit network and take on the responsibility of the backbone of the urban public transportation. Therefore, the passenger flow data of the existing urban rail transit lines, the change of the passenger flow in the existing line network and the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics under the conditions of the new line opening are studied. The law, the new line opening to the existing railway network passenger flow law, the new line design and selection, the new line opening may cause the passenger flow influence, the whole network passenger flow forecast, the optimized adjustment operation plan and so on aspects have the important significance. The new line passenger flow reduction model is built on the basis of the actual new line passenger flow and the urban rail traffic network structure. The model uses the probability function based on space position and distance to restore the new line passenger flow to the new line open network, using the Trans CAD software, according to the following. Through model, the passenger flow data under the condition of single new line opening are obtained, and the passenger flow data before the new line is opened. Secondly, the passenger flow data before and after the opening of the new line are obtained based on the model, and the network, line, interval and car are carried out according to the time scale of the whole day to peak hour. At the station level, the change of passenger flow index is analyzed, and the clustering classification is carried out on the change of passenger flow data at the site level and interval level in the whole time scale, and the multiplicative and interval changes of the existing railway stations are evaluated by different new lines. The influence rules of different new line types on existing railway stations and sections are analyzed and summarized. Finally, due to the existing conclusions based on the data adjusted by the new line opening with major traffic policies, the results are difficult to avoid the cross effects of multiple factors. Therefore, the model is applied to the new line (the two phase of the Changping line and the middle section of line 14). There is no other major traffic policy adjustment case analysis to verify the validity and universality of the model. The study of the regularity and characteristics of the influence of the passenger flow can provide some reference for the planning and implementation of the new line. The progress is summarized and the direction of further research is prospected.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：北京交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號(hào)】：U293.13

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本文編號(hào)：2123079