本文選題：高速鐵路 + 經(jīng)濟(jì)效應(yīng)　； 參考：《經(jīng)濟(jì)科學(xué)》2017年02期

【摘要】：本文將鄭西高鐵作為一項自然實驗,選取1995年至2015年市級平衡面板數(shù)據(jù),采用項目評估中的合成控制法,構(gòu)造處理組的"反事實"狀態(tài),分析鄭西高鐵對沿線區(qū)域的經(jīng)濟(jì)效應(yīng)。研究表明:(1)合成控制法能夠很好地擬合鄭西高鐵修建前西安、渭南、三門峽與洛陽的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長路徑;(2)鄭西高鐵的經(jīng)濟(jì)效應(yīng)存在1至2年的滯后期,雖伴隨小幅波動,但整體呈上升趨勢且基本維持相對穩(wěn)定狀態(tài);(3)鄭西高鐵對四市的平均效應(yīng)分別為0.083、0.115、0.116及0.111,人均產(chǎn)出分別增長了0.97%、1.37%、0.91%及1.23%;(4)采用安慰劑試驗、排序檢驗及雙重差分法進(jìn)行穩(wěn)健性檢驗,其中雙重差分法所得四市平均處理效應(yīng)分別為0.091、0.141、0.104、0.159,這與合成控制法結(jié)果較為接近;(5)通過影響機(jī)制分析發(fā)現(xiàn),鄭西高鐵能夠提高沿線區(qū)域的可達(dá)性及經(jīng)濟(jì)聯(lián)系強(qiáng)度,河南各市與西安之間的經(jīng)濟(jì)聯(lián)系強(qiáng)度增幅較大,而陜西邊界各市與鄭州的經(jīng)濟(jì)聯(lián)系強(qiáng)度相對較弱。
[Abstract]:In this paper, as a natural experiment, the authors select the municipal equilibrium panel data from 1995 to 2015, construct the "counterfactual" state of the treatment group by using the synthetic control method in the project evaluation, and analyze the economic effect of the high-speed railway in the area along the route. The results show that: (1) the synthetic control method can well fit the economic growth paths of Xi'an, Weinan, Sanmenxia and Luoyang before the construction of Zhengxi high-speed railway, and (2) the economic effect of Zheng Xi high-speed railway has a lag period of 1 to 2 years, although it is accompanied by small fluctuations. However, the overall trend is upward and the relative stability is basically maintained. (3) the average effect of Zhengxi high-speed railway on the four cities is 0.083 / 0.1150.116 and 0.111 respectively, and the per capita output has increased by 0.97 / 1.370.91% and 1.23g / 1 respectively; (4) the placebo test, the sequencing test and the double difference method are used to test the robustness of the four cities. The average treatment effect of the four cities obtained by the double difference method is 0.091 / 0.141 / 0.104 / 0.159respectively, which is close to the result of the synthetic control method. (5) through the analysis of the influence mechanism, it is found that the high speed rail in the west of Zhengzhou can improve the accessibility and the economic connection intensity of the area along the route. The intensity of economic connection between Henan city and Xi'an is larger than that between Shaanxi border city and Zhengzhou city.
【作者單位】： 南京財經(jīng)大學(xué)財政與稅務(wù)學(xué)院;西安交通大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)與金融學(xué)院;
【基金】：國家自然科學(xué)基金項目(71173165)的資助
【分類號】：F532.8
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本文編號：2092608