本文選題：內(nèi)貿(mào)集裝箱運(yùn)輸 + 回歸預(yù)測�。� 參考：《大連海事大學(xué)》2012年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著我國國民經(jīng)濟(jì)近年來快速、持續(xù)的發(fā)展,我國內(nèi)貿(mào)集裝箱運(yùn)輸業(yè)也取得了很大的進(jìn)步,不管是運(yùn)力投入量還是貨物吞吐量都實現(xiàn)了高速的增長。尤其是2008年以來,雖然海運(yùn)業(yè)整體上受到金融危機(jī)的影響經(jīng)歷了徘徊震蕩,但是這并沒有影響我國內(nèi)貿(mào)集裝箱運(yùn)輸前進(jìn)的腳步,而是恰好為其發(fā)展提供了良好的機(jī)遇。基于這樣的背景和原因,本文展開了對我國內(nèi)貿(mào)集裝箱運(yùn)輸市場的研究,希望對于內(nèi)貿(mào)集裝箱運(yùn)輸牢牢把握這一發(fā)展機(jī)遇,實現(xiàn)更好、更快的發(fā)展起到一定的指導(dǎo)意義。 本文首先從貨流的結(jié)構(gòu)、特征、規(guī)模、方向四個方面分析了我國內(nèi)貿(mào)集裝箱運(yùn)輸?shù)男枨蟋F(xiàn)狀；從港口狀況、船隊運(yùn)力、運(yùn)輸經(jīng)營者及航線四個方面分析了我國內(nèi)貿(mào)集裝箱運(yùn)輸?shù)墓┙o現(xiàn)狀；結(jié)合需求和供給狀況分析了內(nèi)貿(mào)集裝箱的運(yùn)價狀況。然后,闡述了我國內(nèi)貿(mào)集裝箱的發(fā)展歷程,并從政策、經(jīng)濟(jì)、社會和技術(shù)四個方面分析了內(nèi)貿(mào)集裝箱運(yùn)輸?shù)陌l(fā)展環(huán)境。基于發(fā)展環(huán)境分析,文章給對內(nèi)貿(mào)集裝箱需求、供給和運(yùn)價發(fā)展趨勢進(jìn)行了理論分析,并初步認(rèn)為在未來一段時間內(nèi)我國內(nèi)貿(mào)集裝箱運(yùn)輸市場供給和需求將基本維持平衡、運(yùn)價呈平穩(wěn)波動略有小幅上漲趨勢。接著,運(yùn)用回歸預(yù)測和灰色預(yù)測相組合的方法,對未來一段時間內(nèi)我國內(nèi)貿(mào)集裝箱吞吐量進(jìn)行了科學(xué)預(yù)測。預(yù)測結(jié)果表明,在未來幾年內(nèi)我國內(nèi)貿(mào)集裝箱吞吐量將繼續(xù)保持穩(wěn)定、快速、良好的增長趨勢。最后,結(jié)合以上定性分析和定量預(yù)測結(jié)果,提出了促進(jìn)我國內(nèi)貿(mào)集裝箱運(yùn)輸市場積極發(fā)展的有關(guān)對策建議。
[Abstract]:With the rapid and continuous development of China's national economy in recent years, China's domestic container transport industry has also made great progress, both in terms of capacity input and cargo throughput to achieve a rapid growth. Especially since 2008, although the shipping industry has been affected by the financial crisis as a whole has experienced hovering shocks, but this does not affect the pace of China's domestic trade container transport, but just provide a good opportunity for its development. Based on this background and reasons, this paper studies the domestic container transport market in China, hoping to firmly grasp this development opportunity and achieve better and faster development of domestic trade container transport plays a certain guiding significance. This paper first analyzes the demand status of domestic trade container transportation from four aspects of the structure, characteristics, scale and direction of cargo flow, from the port status, fleet capacity, This paper analyzes the supply status of domestic trade container transportation in China from four aspects of transport operators and routes, and analyzes the shipping price status of domestic trade containers according to the demand and supply situation. Then, the development course of domestic trade container in China is expounded, and the development environment of domestic trade container transportation is analyzed from four aspects: policy, economy, society and technology. Based on the analysis of the development environment, the paper makes a theoretical analysis on the development trend of domestic container demand, supply and freight rate, and preliminarily thinks that the supply and demand of domestic trade container transportation market will basically maintain a balance in the future. Freight rates show steady fluctuations slightly up the trend. Then, the combination of regression forecast and grey forecast is used to predict the throughput of domestic trade container in the future. The forecast results show that China's domestic container throughput will continue to maintain a stable, rapid and good growth trend in the next few years. Finally, based on the above qualitative analysis and quantitative prediction results, the author puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions to promote the positive development of China's domestic container transport market.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：大連海事大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F552

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