發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-06-19 16:14

  本文選題：港口集疏運(yùn)系統(tǒng) + 組合預(yù)測(cè)�。� 參考：《武漢理工大學(xué)》2012年碩士論文

【摘要】：岳陽(yáng)港是湖南省唯一的國(guó)家一類口岸,是湖南第一大港,起到連接國(guó)內(nèi)國(guó)際之間商業(yè)貿(mào)易的橋梁作用,同時(shí)也帶動(dòng)所在地的經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)發(fā)展,港口經(jīng)濟(jì)在現(xiàn)代經(jīng)濟(jì)體系中已成為公認(rèn)的增長(zhǎng)極。作為重要的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)極,港口經(jīng)濟(jì)可以帶動(dòng)區(qū)域產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的調(diào)整,它的發(fā)展依賴于港口的天然條件及外界因素的影響,更受其自身集疏運(yùn)系統(tǒng)的限制。港口集疏運(yùn)系統(tǒng)與港口的生產(chǎn)與發(fā)展息息相關(guān),是促進(jìn)港口發(fā)展的重要因素之一。集疏運(yùn)系統(tǒng)主要由鐵路、公路、水運(yùn)、航空、管道五種基本運(yùn)輸方式及相應(yīng)的交接場(chǎng)站組成,連接港口和其經(jīng)濟(jì)腹地,是港口貨物集運(yùn)和輸運(yùn)的主要承擔(dān)者。近年來(lái),我國(guó)港口吞吐量一直呈現(xiàn)出快速增長(zhǎng)的態(tài)勢(shì),隨著吞吐量的快速增長(zhǎng),港口集疏運(yùn)系統(tǒng)逐漸成為制約港口發(fā)展的瓶頸。 首先,本文通過(guò)對(duì)岳陽(yáng)港自身?xiàng)l件及經(jīng)濟(jì)腹地的經(jīng)濟(jì)和交通現(xiàn)狀的分析,結(jié)合其歷年吞吐量和集疏運(yùn)量統(tǒng)計(jì)資料,利用組合預(yù)測(cè)法對(duì)岳陽(yáng)港未來(lái)年集疏運(yùn)量進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè)。并根據(jù)國(guó)內(nèi)外港口集疏運(yùn)系統(tǒng)現(xiàn)狀及發(fā)展規(guī)律,分析了影響集疏運(yùn)系統(tǒng)能效的主要因素。 其次,在理論分析的基礎(chǔ)上總結(jié)歸納出針對(duì)集疏運(yùn)系統(tǒng)發(fā)展的評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系,運(yùn)用層次分析法(AHP)和德?tīng)柗品ǖ慕Y(jié)合對(duì)評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)進(jìn)行權(quán)重的賦值,再通過(guò)模糊綜合評(píng)價(jià)法對(duì)岳陽(yáng)港集疏運(yùn)系統(tǒng)現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行綜合評(píng)價(jià),基于預(yù)測(cè)和評(píng)價(jià)的結(jié)果,提出岳陽(yáng)港集疏運(yùn)系統(tǒng)改進(jìn)的方向和措施。 最后,對(duì)假設(shè)已完成改進(jìn)的岳陽(yáng)港集疏運(yùn)系統(tǒng)進(jìn)行在評(píng)價(jià),分析再評(píng)價(jià)結(jié)果,指出改進(jìn)岳陽(yáng)港港口集疏運(yùn)體系可以提高岳陽(yáng)港在內(nèi)河樞紐港口中的地位,為把岳陽(yáng)建設(shè)成為全國(guó)綜合交通重要樞紐提供條件。
[Abstract]:Yueyang Port is the only national first-class port in Hunan Province. It is the largest port in Hunan Province. It acts as a bridge between domestic and international commerce and trade, and at the same time, it also promotes the local economic and social development. Port economy has become a recognized growth pole in modern economic system. As an important economic growth pole, port economy can promote the adjustment of regional industrial structure. Its development depends on the natural conditions of the port and the influence of external factors, and is also restricted by its own transportation system. Port transportation system is closely related to port production and development, and is one of the important factors to promote port development. The collection and distribution system is composed of five basic transportation modes of railway, highway, water, air and pipeline and the corresponding transfer station. It connects the port and its economic hinterland, and is the main carrier of the port cargo collection and transportation. In recent years, port throughput in China has been showing a rapid growth situation, with the rapid growth of throughput, port transportation system has gradually become a bottleneck restricting the development of ports. First of all, through the analysis of Yueyang Port's own conditions and the economic and traffic situation of the economic hinterland, combined with the statistical data of its throughput and transportation volume over the years, the combined forecasting method is used to predict the future annual traffic volume of Yueyang Port. According to the present situation and development law of port transportation system at home and abroad, the main factors affecting energy efficiency of collecting and distributing system are analyzed. Secondly, on the basis of theoretical analysis, the evaluation index system for the development of collecting and distributing system is summarized, and the weight of evaluation index is assigned by the combination of analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and Delphi method. The present situation of Yueyang port transportation system is evaluated by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. Based on the prediction and evaluation results, the direction and measures of improving Yueyang port collection and distribution system are put forward. Finally, an evaluation of the improved Yueyang port transportation system is carried out, and the result of re-evaluation is analyzed. It is pointed out that the improvement of the Yueyang port collection and distribution system can enhance the Yueyang port's position in the inland river hub port. In order to build Yueyang into an important national comprehensive transportation hub to provide conditions.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：武漢理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號(hào)】：F552

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本文編號(hào)：2040453