本文選題：船舶溢油 + 貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)　； 參考：《大連海事大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著我國經(jīng)濟(jì)的高速發(fā)展,貿(mào)易量不斷增加,海運(yùn)以其低運(yùn)費(fèi)、運(yùn)量大的優(yōu)勢承擔(dān)著我國貨物進(jìn)出口的主要任務(wù),然而,一系列的港口船舶溢油事故不僅造成巨額的經(jīng)濟(jì)損失,也給海洋生態(tài)環(huán)境、漁業(yè)以及旅游業(yè)帶來了嚴(yán)重影響。2010年大連港“7.16”爆炸事故油泄漏事件、2013年青島港“11.26”輸油管道爆炸事故將人們關(guān)注的目光集中到了港口油品安全上來,且這兩起安全事故都是在油品作業(yè)過程發(fā)生的�；诖吮尘�,本文針對我國港口船舶作業(yè)現(xiàn)狀,對影響港口船舶溢油的因素進(jìn)行全面識別,并構(gòu)建了安全評價模型,以解決現(xiàn)階段我國港口船舶安全管理中需要迫切解決的問題。本文在對國內(nèi)外港口船舶溢油相關(guān)統(tǒng)計資料和文獻(xiàn)分析的基礎(chǔ)上,以港口船舶靠港裝卸作業(yè)溢油風(fēng)險為研究視角,理論探討與實(shí)證分析相結(jié)合,采用定性分析與定量分析相結(jié)合的分析方法,以綜合評價為基礎(chǔ),對港口船舶靠港裝卸作業(yè)溢油風(fēng)險進(jìn)行了深入的研究和探討。首先,識別出了港口船舶靠港裝卸作業(yè)溢油風(fēng)險的影響因素,根據(jù)各因素的因果關(guān)系構(gòu)建了港口船舶溢油風(fēng)險貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)拓?fù)浣Y(jié)構(gòu),并確定了各節(jié)點(diǎn)的取值范圍；然后,綜合運(yùn)用貝葉斯條件概率模型及三角模糊數(shù)處理方法,獲得了貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)結(jié)構(gòu)中各節(jié)點(diǎn)變量的條件概率；在此基礎(chǔ)上利用GeNIe軟件進(jìn)行了概率推理和風(fēng)險因素靈敏度分析；最后,以我國沿海4個港口為例進(jìn)行了實(shí)際評價。研究結(jié)果表明運(yùn)用模糊貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)模型評價港口船舶溢油風(fēng)險問題是合理和有效的,不僅可為港口和船舶安全管理等制度的制定提供理論依據(jù),也驗(yàn)證了應(yīng)用模糊貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)評價港口船舶溢油風(fēng)險的方法是一種科學(xué)有效的方法。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of our country's economy and the increasing trade volume, the sea transportation bears the main task of our country's import and export of goods because of its advantages of low freight and large volume. However, a series of port ship oil spill accidents not only cause huge economic losses. It has also had a serious impact on the marine ecological environment, fisheries and tourism. The oil spill from the "7.16" explosion accident at Dalian Port in 2010 and the "11.26" oil pipeline explosion at Qingdao Port in 2013 have focused people's attention on the safety of oil products in the port. And these two safety accidents occurred in the course of the oil operation. Based on this background, according to the current situation of port ship operation in China, the factors affecting oil spill of port ship are comprehensively identified, and the safety evaluation model is constructed. In order to solve the problems that need to be solved urgently in the port ship safety management of our country at present. Based on the statistical data and literature analysis of the oil spill of port ships at home and abroad, this paper combines the theoretical and empirical analysis with the risk of oil spill in port loading and unloading operations. Based on the comprehensive evaluation, the risk of oil spill in loading and unloading operations of port ships is studied and discussed with the combination of qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis. Firstly, the influencing factors of oil spill risk of port ship loading and unloading operations are identified. According to the causality of each factor, the Bayesian network topology structure of port ship oil spill risk is constructed, and the value range of each node is determined. Using Bayesian conditional probability model and triangular fuzzy number processing method, the conditional probability of each node variable in Bayesian network structure is obtained. On this basis, probability reasoning and risk factor sensitivity analysis are carried out by using GeNIe software. Finally, The actual evaluation of four ports along the coast of China is carried out. The results show that it is reasonable and effective to use the fuzzy Bayesian network model to evaluate the oil spill risk of port ships, which can not only provide theoretical basis for the establishment of the system of port and ship safety management. It is also proved that the fuzzy Bayesian network is a scientific and effective method to evaluate the oil spill risk of port ships.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：大連海事大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：F552

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本文編號：1904347