本文選題：交通可達(dá)性 + 經(jīng)濟(jì)質(zhì)量��； 參考：《北京交通大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著京津冀協(xié)同發(fā)展等一系列政策的出臺(tái),將京津冀打造成為繼長(zhǎng)三角和珠三角的第三增長(zhǎng)極這一愿景提升至國(guó)家戰(zhàn)略高度。交通一體化作為京津冀協(xié)同發(fā)展的首要任務(wù)無(wú)疑會(huì)給該區(qū)域帶來(lái)提振作用。然而,京津冀交通與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的協(xié)調(diào)情況如何,規(guī)劃修建新線路之后又會(huì)對(duì)兩者的協(xié)調(diào)性帶來(lái)怎樣的影響,本文將通過(guò)對(duì)這些問(wèn)題進(jìn)行深入分析并提取結(jié)論,以便為學(xué)者們今后的研究提供參考,同時(shí)更是為政府部門(mén)出臺(tái)規(guī)劃方案提供優(yōu)化建議和參考,因此研究具有比較大的實(shí)踐意義和理論指導(dǎo)意義。本文基于國(guó)內(nèi)外相關(guān)研究較為全面地對(duì)區(qū)域空間結(jié)構(gòu)理論以及交通與經(jīng)濟(jì)的相互作用機(jī)制進(jìn)行了理論方面的研究梳理。在實(shí)證研究方面,本文選取耦合模型搭建了交通運(yùn)輸和區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)兩個(gè)子系統(tǒng),并分別采取了可達(dá)性模型和主成分分析方法構(gòu)建綜合評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系,對(duì)京津冀13個(gè)城市在2014年的交通和經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展質(zhì)量進(jìn)行定量分析。其中在可達(dá)性模型中加入客貨運(yùn)量指標(biāo)進(jìn)行改進(jìn)得到交通發(fā)展水平,與經(jīng)濟(jì)質(zhì)量進(jìn)行耦合協(xié)調(diào)度測(cè)算分析,得到京津冀地區(qū)的交通運(yùn)輸與區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)耦合協(xié)調(diào)性分布圖;之后采取灰色預(yù)測(cè)模型對(duì)2020年的經(jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo)進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè),并利用ArcGIS軟件中的OD成本矩陣得到交通規(guī)劃實(shí)施后2020年交通發(fā)展水平,從而得到預(yù)測(cè)情況下的兩個(gè)子系統(tǒng)耦合協(xié)調(diào)度。進(jìn)而通過(guò)2014年和2020年的結(jié)果比較交通規(guī)劃的實(shí)施對(duì)京津冀區(qū)域交通和經(jīng)濟(jì)耦合情況的影響程度。結(jié)果表明2014年北京和天津處于京津冀發(fā)展格局中最高層級(jí),是兩個(gè)核心,耦合協(xié)調(diào)度高達(dá)0.83和0.71,屬于優(yōu)質(zhì)協(xié)調(diào)型。而河北省各城市的耦合協(xié)調(diào)性比較差,耦合協(xié)調(diào)度均處于0.4以下較低水平;而在修建交通線路之后的2020年,各城市的協(xié)調(diào)情況改善程度均達(dá)到3%-10%,尤其以規(guī)劃方案中直接涉及的張家口和承德改善程度最為顯著,分別提高了 10%和8%;同時(shí),京津冀區(qū)域的整體差異性有了明顯改善。其耦合協(xié)調(diào)度的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差由2014年的0.259縮減為2020年的0.247,改善程度達(dá)到4.67%;其區(qū)域交通可達(dá)性由0.932縮減為0.846,改善程度9.260%;經(jīng)濟(jì)質(zhì)量改善程度為14.140%。說(shuō)明交通一體化推動(dòng)了京津冀區(qū)域整體發(fā)展,使其水平差距減小。
[Abstract]:With the introduction of a series of policies such as Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei coordinated development, the vision of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei to become the third growth pole after the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta has been raised to a national strategic height. Transportation integration, as the primary task of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, will undoubtedly give a boost to the region. However, how well the traffic and economic development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei are coordinated, and how will the planning and construction of the new line affect the coordination of the two? this paper will make a thorough analysis of these problems and draw conclusions. In order to provide a reference for the scholars in the future study, but also for the government to put forward the planning plan to provide optimization advice and reference, so the study has a relatively large practical and theoretical significance. In this paper, the theory of regional spatial structure and the mechanism of interaction between traffic and economy are comprehensively studied based on the domestic and foreign studies. In the aspect of empirical research, this paper selects the coupling model to build two subsystems of transportation and regional economy, and adopts the reachability model and principal component analysis method to construct the comprehensive evaluation index system. The quality of transportation and economic development of 13 cities in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei in 2014 was analyzed quantitatively. In the reachability model, the transportation development level is obtained by adding the passenger and freight volume index to improve, and the coupling coordination degree with the economic quality is calculated and analyzed, and the distribution map of the transportation and regional economic coupling coordination in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is obtained. Then the grey forecasting model is used to predict the economic index in 2020, and the OD cost matrix in ArcGIS software is used to get the level of traffic development in 2020 after the implementation of traffic planning, and the coupling coordination degree between the two subsystems is obtained. Through the results of 2014 and 2020, the impact of traffic planning on the traffic and economic coupling in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region was compared. The results showed that Beijing and Tianjin were at the highest level in the development pattern of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei in 2014 and were the two core. The coupling coordination degree was as high as 0.83 and 0.71, so they belonged to the high-quality coordination type. However, the coupling coordination of cities in Hebei Province is poor, and the degree of coupling coordination is lower than 0.4, and in 2020 after the construction of traffic lines, The coordination degree of each city reached 3- 10, especially the degree of improvement of Zhangjiakou and Chengde, which were directly involved in the planning scheme, increased by 10% and 8% respectively, and the overall difference of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region was obviously improved. The standard deviation of the coupling coordination degree is reduced from 0.259 in 2014 to 0.247 in 2020, and the degree of improvement is 4.67, the regional traffic accessibility is reduced from 0.932 to 0.846, the degree of improvement is 9.260, and the degree of economic quality improvement is 14.140. It shows that the integration of traffic promotes the overall development of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, and reduces the level gap.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：北京交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F127;F512.7

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本文編號(hào)：1902191