本文選題：低碳城市 + 低碳交通��； 參考：《江南大學(xué)》2012年碩士論文

【摘要】：全球化背景下,城市面臨著資源嚴(yán)重短缺、生活貧富不均、環(huán)境污染嚴(yán)重、交通擁堵明顯等一系列問題。低碳發(fā)展已經(jīng)成為21世紀(jì)城市可持續(xù)發(fā)展的重要內(nèi)容。低碳城市的內(nèi)涵是以城市空間為載體,發(fā)展低碳經(jīng)濟(jì),建設(shè)低碳交通,實(shí)施低碳建筑,轉(zhuǎn)變居民消費(fèi)觀念,從而達(dá)到最大限度的減少溫室氣體的排放。建設(shè)新型低碳城市,是需求社會(huì)長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)和諧發(fā)展的必然選擇,更是解決全球氣候變化問題和能源安全問題的重要途徑。城市交通作為城市活動(dòng)的主要承擔(dān)者,擔(dān)負(fù)著不可推卸的減排責(zé)任。減少城市交通能耗,降低交通碳排放,以全新的視角審視城市低碳機(jī)動(dòng)化的要求,積極探索更高效、更節(jié)能、更清潔的可持續(xù)性城市交通發(fā)展模式,以綠色GDP推動(dòng)低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展,是城市交通系統(tǒng)必須直面的挑戰(zhàn)。 首先,論文從上述背景出發(fā),分析了城市建設(shè)低碳交通的重要性和必然性,指出論文的選題具有較強(qiáng)的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。其次,論文在歸納國(guó)內(nèi)外研究的基礎(chǔ)上,分析了我國(guó)交通運(yùn)輸業(yè)發(fā)展和能耗的現(xiàn)狀,并以無(wú)錫為例,對(duì)城市交通碳排放現(xiàn)狀做了深入研究,分析了城市交通碳足跡。第三,綜合國(guó)內(nèi)外研究,結(jié)合無(wú)錫實(shí)際,篩選出十個(gè)對(duì)城市交通碳排放有顯著影響的指標(biāo),并建立了基于偏最小二乘法的無(wú)錫市城市交通二氧化碳排放的影響因素模型。最后,通過MATLAB編程對(duì)模型進(jìn)行模擬運(yùn)算和檢驗(yàn)分析,并針對(duì)給出了無(wú)錫市發(fā)展低碳交通的建議措施。 論文建立的基于偏最小二乘算法的無(wú)錫市城市交通二氧化碳排放的影響因素模型包涵了以下幾個(gè)對(duì)城市交通二氧化碳排放有顯著影響的因素,它們是城市人口、社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平、居民購(gòu)買力、新技術(shù)的研發(fā)、公共交通分擔(dān)情況、道路擁堵水平、居民出行需求和貨運(yùn)需求。論文得出的結(jié)論有:(1)城市交通碳排放的主要影響因素有城市機(jī)動(dòng)車數(shù)量、公交車日均載客量、人均道路面積、城市人口和居民年收入水平。(2)公交車日均載客量與城市交通碳排量負(fù)相關(guān)。公交車日均載客量越多,意味著越多的居民在出行時(shí)偏好選擇乘坐公交車,越少的居民選擇乘坐出租車或私家車,從而降低城市的人均碳排量。(3)對(duì)低碳新技術(shù)和新能源的研發(fā)投入可以減少城市交通的碳排量但是影響效果尚不顯著。 論文的創(chuàng)新點(diǎn)有:(1)歸納總結(jié)出一個(gè)對(duì)城市交通二氧化碳有顯著影響的因素集合。(2)建立了基于偏最小二乘算法的城市交通碳排放影響因素模型并驗(yàn)證了模型的合理性和有效性。(3)針對(duì)模型的分析結(jié)果,給出了有建設(shè)性的城市發(fā)展低碳交通的可行路徑,對(duì)無(wú)錫市發(fā)展低碳交通有一定的促進(jìn)作用。
[Abstract]:Under the background of globalization, cities are faced with a series of problems, such as serious shortage of resources, uneven life, serious environmental pollution and obvious traffic jam. Low-carbon development has become an important content of urban sustainable development in the 21 st century. The connotation of low carbon city is to develop low carbon economy, build low carbon transportation, implement low carbon building and change residents' consumption concept, so as to reduce greenhouse gas emission to the maximum extent. The construction of a new low-carbon city is an inevitable choice for the long-term harmonious development of the needs society and an important way to solve the global climate change and energy security problems. As the main carrier of urban activities, urban traffic is shouldering the unshirkable responsibility of emission reduction. To reduce urban transportation energy consumption, reduce traffic carbon emissions, examine the requirements of urban low-carbon motorization from a new perspective, and actively explore more efficient, more energy efficient and cleaner sustainable urban transport development model. Using green GDP to promote the development of low-carbon economy is a challenge that urban transportation system must face directly. First of all, the thesis analyzes the importance and inevitability of low-carbon traffic in urban construction from the above background, and points out that the topic of the thesis has strong practical significance. Secondly, based on the research at home and abroad, the paper analyzes the development and energy consumption of transportation industry in China, and takes Wuxi as an example, makes a deep study on the current situation of urban traffic carbon emissions, and analyzes the urban traffic carbon footprint. Thirdly, based on the domestic and foreign research and the actual situation in Wuxi, ten indexes which have significant influence on urban traffic carbon dioxide emission are selected, and the model of influencing factors of urban traffic carbon dioxide emission in Wuxi city based on partial least square method is established. Finally, the model is simulated and analyzed by MATLAB programming, and some suggestions for developing low-carbon traffic in Wuxi are given. Based on partial least square algorithm, the model of influencing factors of urban traffic carbon dioxide emissions in Wuxi city includes the following factors, which are urban population. Level of social and economic development, purchasing power of residents, research and development of new technologies, public transport sharing, road congestion level, residents' travel demand and freight demand. The main influencing factors of urban traffic carbon emissions are the number of urban motor vehicles, the average daily carrying capacity of buses, the per capita road area. The average daily carrying capacity of buses is negatively correlated with the carbon emission of urban traffic. The more passengers a bus carries each day, the more residents prefer to take the bus when they travel, and the fewer people choose to take a taxi or private car. Thus reducing the per capita carbon emission of cities.) the R & D investment in low-carbon new technologies and new energy can reduce the carbon emissions of urban traffic, but the effect is not significant. The innovation of this paper is: (1) summarize a set of factors that have significant influence on carbon dioxide in urban traffic. (2) establish the model of influencing factors of urban traffic carbon emissions based on partial least squares algorithm and verify the rationality of the model. Based on the results of the analysis of the model, The feasible path of developing low-carbon transportation in Wuxi city is given, which can promote the development of low-carbon transportation in Wuxi city.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：江南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號(hào)】：F205;F572

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