本文選題：客流預(yù)測(cè) + 城際軌道交通�。� 參考：《長(zhǎng)沙理工大學(xué)》2012年碩士論文

【摘要】：近年來(lái)，我國(guó)城市群的快速發(fā)展，使得各個(gè)城市間的交通需求越來(lái)越大。然而，很多中心城市和外圍城市間缺乏很好的橫向聯(lián)系，各城市內(nèi)部的交通結(jié)構(gòu)也存在一定的缺陷。作為一種集大運(yùn)量、便捷、舒適、準(zhǔn)時(shí)，“公交化”特點(diǎn)于一體的城際軌道交通運(yùn)輸方式應(yīng)運(yùn)而生。 客流預(yù)測(cè)對(duì)軌道交通的各個(gè)方面和各個(gè)階段都起著及其重要的作用。論文針對(duì)長(zhǎng)株潭城市群軌道交通進(jìn)行客流預(yù)測(cè)研究，首先對(duì)城際軌道交通進(jìn)行基本討論，詳細(xì)研究了城際軌道交通的定義、地位和特點(diǎn)，探討了客流預(yù)測(cè)的重要性以及主要方法。然后，分析了長(zhǎng)株潭城際軌道交通客流時(shí)空分布、供需特征及綜合交通環(huán)境現(xiàn)狀。根據(jù)現(xiàn)有的行政分區(qū)及軌道交通站點(diǎn)設(shè)置情況，在劃定26個(gè)交通小區(qū)后，采用四階段預(yù)測(cè)法對(duì)長(zhǎng)株潭城際軌道交通進(jìn)行客流預(yù)測(cè)。重點(diǎn)在客流生成階段，，利用改進(jìn)后的回歸模型和彈性系數(shù)法，從兩種預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果選出最合理的結(jié)果；客流分布階段，采用基于土地利用的分布模型來(lái)對(duì)客流生成量進(jìn)行分布預(yù)測(cè)；方式劃分階段，利用旅客意愿調(diào)查表中出行者對(duì)各種交通方式服務(wù)水平的要求和選擇交通方式時(shí)所持的價(jià)值基準(zhǔn)，在廣義費(fèi)用計(jì)算時(shí)重點(diǎn)考慮時(shí)間和費(fèi)用兩個(gè)影響因素，建立符合本地區(qū)實(shí)際情況的Logit模型。最后，對(duì)客流預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果進(jìn)行分時(shí)段估算，獲得了全日客流量、全日客流周轉(zhuǎn)量、全日分小時(shí)段客流量、全日高峰小時(shí)客流量等關(guān)鍵定量指標(biāo)。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the rapid development of urban agglomeration in China, traffic demand among cities is increasing. However, there is a lack of good horizontal connection between many central cities and peripheral cities, and there are some defects in the internal traffic structure of each city. As a large volume, convenient, comfortable, punctual, "public transport" features in the intercity rail transit mode came into being. Passenger flow prediction plays an important role in all aspects and stages of rail transit. In this paper, the passenger flow prediction of Chang-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan urban agglomeration is studied. Firstly, the basic discussion of intercity rail transit is carried out, and the definition, status and characteristics of intercity rail transit are studied in detail. The importance and main methods of passenger flow prediction are discussed. Then, the spatial and temporal distribution of intercity rail transit passenger flow, the characteristics of supply and demand and the present situation of comprehensive traffic environment are analyzed. According to the existing administrative districts and rail transit stations, the passenger flow of intercity rail transit in Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan city was forecasted by four-stage forecasting method after 26 traffic districts were delineated. In the stage of passenger flow generation, the most reasonable results are selected from the two forecasting results by using the improved regression model and the elastic coefficient method, and in the passenger flow distribution stage, the distribution model based on land use is used to forecast the passenger flow production. In the mode division stage, using the requirements of travelers' service level of various modes of transportation and the value benchmark held when choosing transportation modes in the passenger willingness questionnaire, two factors, time and cost, are emphatically considered in the generalized cost calculation. The Logit model is established in accordance with the actual situation in this area. Finally, the forecast results of passenger flow are estimated in different periods, and the key quantitative indexes, such as full day passenger flow, full day passenger flow turnover, full hourly passenger flow, full day peak hour passenger flow, are obtained.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：長(zhǎng)沙理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：U293.5;U293.13

【引證文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前1條

1 呂高騰;城際軌道交通客流量預(yù)測(cè)方法研究[D];蘭州交通大學(xué);2013年

本文編號(hào)：1843633