本文選題：不確定性 + 國際海運物流��； 參考：《哈爾濱工業(yè)大學》2012年碩士論文

【摘要】：國際海運物流是國際貿(mào)易的一種重要途徑，隨著我國國際貿(mào)易的穩(wěn)步快速發(fā)展，國際海運物流行業(yè)也得到了迅猛快速發(fā)展。作為服務(wù)行業(yè)，國際海運物流行業(yè)的企業(yè)本著“客戶至上”的宗旨不斷提高服務(wù)質(zhì)量，但是近年來受海上運力過剩、競爭日趨激烈、匯率波動國際貿(mào)易減少等因素影響，市場對國際海運物流體系提出了更高的要求。 國際海運物流的業(yè)務(wù)需要各個企業(yè)多方協(xié)作，運營差異和信息交流不足導致企業(yè)間協(xié)作存在諸多不確定性，，同時作為一個整體，國際海運物流業(yè)務(wù)流程具有復雜性、多變性等特點，導致整個系統(tǒng)具有不確定性，而本文研究的決策系統(tǒng)能夠針對當前發(fā)生的不確定性狀況做出及時準確的決策。將本文提出的決策技術(shù)運用到國際海運物流系統(tǒng)中將能夠很好地應(yīng)對突發(fā)的不確定事件，幫助企業(yè)在降低運營成本、降低風險的同時提高客戶滿意度、提高執(zhí)行效率、提高贏利能力。為此，本文從以下幾方面開展工作： 首先，從國際海運物流的業(yè)務(wù)著手進行分析，總結(jié)其業(yè)務(wù)特點并明確業(yè)務(wù)管理流程。進而分析國際海運物流流程中存在各種不確定性的問題，提取其中的不確定事件并對其進行分類，分析了各種不確定性的應(yīng)對措施，也對其進行了歸納、分類，針對國際海運物流領(lǐng)域業(yè)務(wù)多變、合理應(yīng)對的問題，建立起整體運輸服務(wù)方案的模型，并基于以上模型深入研究不確定性對物流流程的影響，建立起流程節(jié)點不確定性狀態(tài)模型和不確定性級聯(lián)觸發(fā)模型，為后續(xù)決策部分做好鋪墊。 其次，深入學習MDP（Markov Decision Process，馬爾可夫決策過程），根據(jù)上文建立的決策模型形成基于MDP的不確定性決策方法，實現(xiàn)業(yè)務(wù)運行過程中針對不確定性事件的最佳決策方案的選擇。 最后，針對不確定性環(huán)境下國際海運物流決策系統(tǒng)的模塊劃分和實現(xiàn)問題，對系統(tǒng)進行了分析和設(shè)計，歸納出系統(tǒng)的功能，進而根據(jù)功能劃分系統(tǒng)模塊、設(shè)計系統(tǒng)的信息模型和數(shù)據(jù)庫，實現(xiàn)國際海運物流決策系統(tǒng)，驗證本文所提出決策方法以及不確定性決策在國際海運物流系統(tǒng)中的重要作用。
[Abstract]:International maritime logistics is an important way of international trade. With the steady and rapid development of China's international trade, the international maritime logistics industry has also been rapid and rapid development.As a service industry, the enterprises in the international maritime logistics industry constantly improve the service quality with the aim of "customer first". However, in recent years, due to the overcapacity of maritime transportation, the increasingly fierce competition, and the decrease of international trade in exchange rate fluctuations, etc.The market has put forward higher requirements to the international maritime logistics system.The business of international marine logistics needs the cooperation of all kinds of enterprises. The difference of operation and the lack of information exchange lead to a lot of uncertainty among enterprises. As a whole, the business process of international maritime logistics is complex.The characteristics of variability lead to the uncertainty of the whole system, and the decision system studied in this paper can make timely and accurate decision in view of the current uncertainty situation.Applying the decision technology proposed in this paper to the international maritime logistics system will be able to deal with the unexpected uncertain events and help the enterprises reduce the operating costs and risks while improving customer satisfaction and execution efficiency.Improve profitability.Therefore, the work of this paper is carried out in the following aspects:First, analyze the business of international shipping logistics, summarize its business characteristics and clarify the business management process.Then it analyzes the problems of uncertainty in the process of international maritime logistics, extracts and classifies the uncertain events, analyzes the countermeasures of various uncertainties, and summarizes and classifies them.Aiming at the problem that the international shipping logistics business is changeable and reasonable to deal with, the model of the whole transportation service scheme is established, and based on the above model, the influence of uncertainty on the logistics process is deeply studied.The process node uncertainty state model and the uncertainty cascade trigger model are established to pave the way for the follow-up decision.Secondly, the decision process of MDP(Markov Decision process and Markov decision process are studied in depth. According to the decision model established above, the uncertain decision method based on MDP is formed to realize the choice of the best decision scheme for uncertain events in the course of business operation.Finally, aiming at the problem of module partition and realization of international maritime logistics decision system under uncertain environment, the system is analyzed and designed, and the function of the system is summed up, and then the system module is divided according to the function.The information model and database of the system are designed to realize the international maritime logistics decision system. The decision method proposed in this paper and the important role of uncertainty decision in the international maritime logistics system are verified.
【學位授予單位】：哈爾濱工業(yè)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：TP311.52;F551

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