本文選題：交通客貨流　切入點(diǎn)：標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差橢圓　出處：《地域研究與開發(fā)》2017年06期

【摘要】：基于標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差橢圓和地理加權(quán)回歸方法,對(duì)2000—2015年我國(guó)交通客貨流時(shí)空演化特征及其與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的空間關(guān)聯(lián)性進(jìn)行測(cè)度。結(jié)果表明:(1)受國(guó)際國(guó)內(nèi)市場(chǎng)環(huán)境的影響,客貨流標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差橢圓呈現(xiàn)明顯的"東西往返"移動(dòng)軌跡,核心區(qū)持續(xù)快速發(fā)展一段時(shí)間后出現(xiàn)疲軟態(tài)勢(shì),轉(zhuǎn)入中低速常態(tài)化發(fā)展模式,整體發(fā)展趨于均衡。(2)沿海和全國(guó)客貨流標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差橢圓呈現(xiàn)相近的運(yùn)動(dòng)軌跡,呈現(xiàn)空間一體化發(fā)展格局。擴(kuò)大內(nèi)需、培育人們消費(fèi)能力成為客貨流發(fā)展的關(guān)鍵。(3)客貨流與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的空間關(guān)聯(lián)呈現(xiàn)明顯的空間差異,經(jīng)濟(jì)基礎(chǔ)發(fā)展相對(duì)較好的城市憑借周邊地區(qū)的依附作用,關(guān)聯(lián)度相對(duì)較高,而發(fā)展相對(duì)有限的城市則相反。
[Abstract]:Based on standard deviation ellipse and geographical weighted regression method, the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of passenger and cargo flows in China from 2000 to 2015 and their spatial correlation with economic development are measured.The results show that under the influence of the international and domestic market environment, the standard deviation ellipse of passenger and cargo flow presents a clear "east-west" movement trajectory, and the core area shows a weak trend after a period of sustained and rapid development, and turns to the medium-low speed normalizing development mode.The overall development tends to be balanced. 2) the ellipse of standard deviation of passenger and cargo flows in coastal and national areas shows similar movement track and presents a pattern of spatial integration.Expanding domestic demand and cultivating people's consumption ability become the key to the development of passenger and cargo flows.) the spatial correlation between passenger and cargo flows and economic development shows obvious spatial differences. Cities with relatively good economic development depend on the dependence of the surrounding areas.The degree of correlation is relatively high, while the city with relatively limited development is the opposite.
【作者單位】： 南京大學(xué)建筑與城市規(guī)劃學(xué)院;遼寧師范大學(xué)海洋經(jīng)濟(jì)與可持續(xù)發(fā)展研究中心;
【基金】：國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金項(xiàng)目(41571126) 遼寧省社會(huì)科學(xué)規(guī)劃基金項(xiàng)目(L16BJL007)
【分類號(hào)】：F512

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1 吳衛(wèi)平;;鐵路客貨流預(yù)測(cè)方法研究[A];管理科學(xué)與系統(tǒng)科學(xué)進(jìn)展——全國(guó)青年管理科學(xué)與系統(tǒng)科學(xué)論文集（第3卷）[C];1995年

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