發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-04-03 08:15

  本文選題：主成分分析法　切入點(diǎn)：適應(yīng)性　出處：《武漢理工大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：長江干線是長江流域經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展最重要的紐帶,長江航運(yùn)對(duì)帶動(dòng)沿江經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展及產(chǎn)業(yè)布局具有十分重要的作用。反之,長江流域地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)的快速發(fā)展,推動(dòng)了長江航運(yùn)需求的極大增長,也對(duì)長江干線航道的建設(shè)水平提出了更高的要求,因此,基于目前長江干線流域的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平,測(cè)度長江干線航運(yùn)發(fā)展水平在此發(fā)展背景下的適應(yīng)性問題,具有重要的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。 目前在適應(yīng)性研究方面,主要側(cè)重于從整體上研究交通運(yùn)輸與社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的相互作用,而著眼于內(nèi)河航道適應(yīng)性的研究還比較少,沒有形成統(tǒng)一的評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系。本文認(rèn)為長江干線航運(yùn)發(fā)展與流域經(jīng)濟(jì)的適應(yīng)性既包括長江干線航運(yùn)發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀與經(jīng)濟(jì)現(xiàn)狀的適應(yīng)程度,也包括未來長江干線航運(yùn)需求與經(jīng)濟(jì)需求的適應(yīng)性,這個(gè)適應(yīng)性的內(nèi)涵是指航運(yùn)發(fā)展不僅要從速度和規(guī)模上滿足經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的要求,還要保證航道基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施條件、船舶運(yùn)營組織等與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的階段和水平相適應(yīng)。因此本文綜合考慮上述因素,選取一系列指標(biāo)構(gòu)建長江干線航運(yùn)發(fā)展與流域經(jīng)濟(jì)適應(yīng)性評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系,采用主成分分析法對(duì)指標(biāo)進(jìn)行綜合處理,分別得到長江上、中、下游的航運(yùn)發(fā)展、經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展綜合評(píng)價(jià)值,對(duì)比分析其適應(yīng)性,為未來航運(yùn)發(fā)展提供一個(gè)方向。 本文首先分析了長江干線航運(yùn)發(fā)展與流域經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀,分別從總體經(jīng)濟(jì)、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)、對(duì)外貿(mào)易、地方財(cái)力四個(gè)方面對(duì)長江流域的經(jīng)濟(jì)現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行概述,并從航道、港口、船舶、運(yùn)輸四個(gè)方面著手對(duì)長江干線航道的建設(shè)情況和通航現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行分析；然后本文第三章采用定性與定量相結(jié)合的方法對(duì)不同航段的航運(yùn)發(fā)展需求及流域經(jīng)濟(jì)需求進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè),定量預(yù)測(cè)時(shí)主要采用二次指數(shù)平滑法得到預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果；此外,在第四章中首先考慮一系列影響因素,通過分析指標(biāo)之間的相關(guān)性,剔除不相關(guān)指標(biāo),最終構(gòu)建了長江干線航運(yùn)發(fā)展與流域經(jīng)濟(jì)適應(yīng)性評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系,再分別對(duì)長江干線航運(yùn)發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀及航運(yùn)發(fā)展需求與流域經(jīng)濟(jì)的適應(yīng)性進(jìn)行評(píng)價(jià),采用主成分分析法分析數(shù)據(jù),分別得到航運(yùn)發(fā)展與流域經(jīng)濟(jì)的綜合得分值,計(jì)算其差值,以此衡量現(xiàn)在及未來的航運(yùn)發(fā)展水平；最后,在此基礎(chǔ)上提出改進(jìn)意見。
[Abstract]:The main line of the Yangtze River is the most important link for the economic development of the Yangtze River basin, and the shipping along the Yangtze River plays a very important role in driving the economic development and industrial distribution along the Yangtze River.On the contrary, the rapid development of the economy in the Yangtze River basin has promoted the great growth of the Yangtze River shipping demand, and put forward higher requirements for the construction level of the Yangtze River trunk waterway. Therefore, based on the current economic development level of the Yangtze River main river basin,It is of great practical significance to measure the adaptability of the development level of Yangtze River trunk shipping under this background.At present, the research on adaptability is mainly focused on the interaction between transportation and social economy, while the study on adaptability of inland waterway is less, and there is no unified evaluation index system.This paper holds that the adaptability of the development of the Yangtze River trunk line shipping and the river basin economy includes not only the adaptability of the current situation of the Yangtze River trunk shipping development and the current economic situation, but also the adaptability of the future Yangtze River trunk line shipping demand and economic demand.The connotation of this adaptability is that the development of shipping should not only meet the requirements of economic development in terms of speed and scale, but also ensure the conditions of waterway infrastructure, ship operation organization and so on, which are compatible with the stage and level of economic development.Therefore, this paper synthetically considers the above factors, selects a series of indexes to construct the evaluation index system of the Yangtze River trunk shipping development and the river basin economic adaptability, uses the principal component analysis method to carry on the comprehensive treatment to the index, obtains the Changjiang River upper and middle, respectively,The comprehensive evaluation value of downstream shipping development and economic development provides a direction for future shipping development by comparing and analyzing its adaptability.This paper first analyzes the development of the Yangtze River trunk shipping and the development of the river basin economy, respectively from the overall economy, industrial structure, foreign trade, local financial resources in four aspects of the economic situation of the Yangtze River basin, and from the waterway, port,The four aspects of shipping and transportation begin to analyze the construction and navigation status of the Yangtze River main waterway, and the third chapter uses the method of combining qualitative and quantitative analysis to forecast the development demand of shipping and the economic demand of different watersheds.In the fourth chapter, a series of influencing factors are considered first, and by analyzing the correlation between the indexes, the irrelevant indexes are eliminated.Finally, the evaluation index system of Yangtze River trunk shipping development and basin economic adaptability is constructed, and then the current situation of Yangtze River trunk shipping development and the adaptability of shipping development demand and basin economy are evaluated, and the principal component analysis method is used to analyze the data.The comprehensive scores of shipping development and basin economy are obtained, and the difference between them is calculated to measure the present and future shipping development level. Finally, suggestions for improvement are put forward.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：武漢理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F127;F562.8

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