本文選題：客運站　切入點：客流量　出處：《天津大學》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：交通運輸是國家經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的大動脈，市場經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展對勞動力和資源的需求及市場化調(diào)配必然導致公路客運量的飆升，但目前的客運站建設無法滿足社會發(fā)展的需求，造成這一局面的原因固然有運力不足的問題，但瓶頸仍然是現(xiàn)代化的、綠色環(huán)保的公路客運樞紐站建設不足。伴隨國家鐵路建設急行軍的步伐，天津市政府提出通過天津公路XZ客運樞紐站的建設，帶動天津西部城區(qū)發(fā)展，形成城市副中心的設想。因此對作為龍頭開發(fā)項目的XZ客運站工程進行管理學上的技術經(jīng)濟評價就尤為重要了。這有力地促進了天津基礎建設的科學規(guī)劃，也對規(guī)范交通運輸?shù)暮侠戆l(fā)展提供了技術支持。 本文在綜合分析當前天津市已建成客運站的運行情況基礎上，以XZ客運站建設項目為具體研究對象，結合天津地區(qū)區(qū)域經(jīng)濟特點，，合理運用經(jīng)濟評價與社會評價相關理論，采用定性與定量相結合、宏觀與微觀相結合的方法，從客流量預測、財務評價和社會評價方面對該項目進行分析。 利用線性回歸分析的方法，對天津市未來10年的公路客流量進行預測。建立數(shù)學模型，依據(jù)天津市統(tǒng)計年鑒數(shù)據(jù)，推算出XZ客運站建成后日平均旅客發(fā)送量，從而推算出該客運站建成后的經(jīng)濟收益，并以此為依據(jù)進行經(jīng)濟效益分析。同時依據(jù)該項目的特點，結合天津市的自然環(huán)境和社會環(huán)境，嘗試性地給出該項目的社會評價指標及方法，研究了對項目投資進行決策的評價標準和依據(jù)。同時以點帶面，科學地識別出項目的各種影響因素并建立完整的指標體系，力爭構建出一個最佳前期經(jīng)濟效益及社會效益分析指標，希望對今后天津及東部地區(qū)其他省市公路客運站建設提供有價值的參考和借鑒。
[Abstract]:Transportation is the main artery of national economic development. The demand for labor force and resources and the market-oriented allocation of the market economy will inevitably lead to a surge in the volume of road passenger traffic, but the current passenger station construction cannot meet the needs of social development. The reasons for this situation are, of course, insufficient transportation capacity, but the bottleneck is still modernization and the lack of construction of green and environmentally friendly passenger transport hub stations along with the rapid pace of the national railway construction. The Tianjin Municipal Government has proposed to promote the development of the western urban area of Tianjin through the construction of the XZ passenger terminal station on Tianjin Highway. Therefore, it is particularly important to carry out the technical and economic evaluation of the XZ passenger station project, which is a leading development project, on the basis of management. This has greatly promoted the scientific planning of Tianjin's infrastructure construction. It also provides technical support to standardize the reasonable development of transportation. Based on the comprehensive analysis of the current operation of Tianjin passenger station, taking the XZ passenger station construction project as the specific research object and combining the regional economic characteristics of Tianjin, the relevant theories of economic evaluation and social evaluation are used rationally. The project is analyzed from the aspects of passenger flow prediction, financial evaluation and social evaluation by combining qualitative and quantitative methods, macro and micro methods. By using the method of linear regression analysis, the highway passenger flow of Tianjin in the next 10 years is forecasted. The mathematical model is established. According to the data of Tianjin statistical yearbook, the average daily passenger transport capacity of XZ passenger station is calculated after the completion of the station. The economic benefits of the station are calculated, and the economic benefits are analyzed. According to the characteristics of the project, the natural environment and social environment of Tianjin are combined. This paper tries to give the social evaluation index and method of the project, and studies the evaluation criteria and basis for the project investment decision. At the same time, it scientifically identifies the various influencing factors of the project and establishes a complete index system. It is hoped that it will provide valuable reference for the future construction of highway passenger stations in Tianjin and other provinces and cities in eastern China.
【學位授予單位】：天津大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F285;U492.4

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